News From The Grain Floor

In waking a tiger, use a long stick.

— Mao Tse-Tung

 

USDA supply and demand and crop production report comes out today at 11 am CST. See attachment for recap table.

 

Overnight closes

  • SN down 1 ¾ at 1467 ¾
  • CN down 1 ½ at 515
  • WN down 7 at 728 ¼
  • KC WN down 7 ¼ at 835 ¼
  • MWN down 5 ½ at 800 ¼
  • SMN down 2.30 at 478.40
  • BON up 27 at 4139
  • RRN  up 3 at 1553

 

Overnight volume

  • SN 8,065
  • CN 7,949
  • WN 7,168
  • KC WN 1,077
  • MWN 424
  • SMN 4,499
  • BON 5,919
  • RRN 30

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 1-3 lower
  • Corn 1-3 lower
  • Wheat 6-8 lower
  • KC wheat 6-8 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 4-6 lower
  • Meal 2.00-3.00 lower
  • Bean oil  20-30 higher
  • Rice  2-4 higher

 

Dollar and stock market lower. Crude, gold, and silver higher.

 

Nikkei up .25%

Hang Seng up .1%

Shanghai Index down .2%

 

China’s April CPI came out last night at +1.8% on year expecting +2.0% vs. +2.4% in March  , – .3% on month vs. – .5% in March

 

China’s April PPI came out last night at – 2.0% vs. -2.3% in March

 

China grain closings – beans unchanged, corn down 3, meal up 14, palm oil up 8, and bean oil up 22.

 

Palm oil up 12.

 

Thailand bought 50,000 tons of meal from Argentina this week for September shipment

 

South Korea bought 200,000 tons of corn from Paraguay for shipment next year.

 

Barge shipments of Brazil beans bound for US Midwest crushers (report on Reuters)

  • Up to 1.2 MMT of Brazilian beans are headed to the US
  • It has been almost 20 years since South American soybeans were unloaded at the Louisiana Gulf and towed up the Mississippi River to inland processors
  • Traders pricing Brazil bean cargoes at discount after China defaults, cancellations
  • Soybeans are also being imported from Canada but US supplies to remain tight

 

CME changes margins across agricultural futures complex- Reuters

  • CME LOWERS CORN FUTURES (C) INITIAL MARGINS FOR SPECS BY 14.3 PCT TO $2,025 PER CONTRACT FROM $2,363
  • CME RAISES NYMEX COFFEE (KT) INITIAL MARGINS FOR SPECS BY 50 PCT TO $9,900 PER CONTRACT FROM $6,600
  • CME RAISES SOYBEAN FUTURES (S) INITIAL MARGINS FOR SPECS BY 20 PCT TO $4,050 PER CONTRACT FROM $3,375
  • CME LOWERS SOYBEAN OIL FUTURES (07) INITIAL MARGINS FOR SPECS BY 14.8 PCT TO $1,553 PER CONTRACT FROM $1,823
  • CME RAISES WHEAT FUTURES (W) INITIAL MARGINS FOR SPECS BY 7.1 PCT TO $2,025 PER CONTRACT FROM $1,890

 

Midwest forecast – scattered showers and thunderstorms, could delay planting

 

US Plains dry, rains are needed , but no significant showers in forecast

 

July bean oil 100 day moving average is 4087

 

July bean oil 200 day moving average is 4189

 

9 corn receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of Cargill Burns Harbor IN

 

Deliveries

  • Minneapolis wheat 2 with the date at 5/05/14
  • KC wheat 131 with the date current
    • House ADM stopped 43
    • Customer JP Morgan stopped 68
    • CHS Hedging issued 131
  • Chicago wheat 139 with the date at 5/07/14
  • Meal 19 with the date at 4/29/14
  • Bean oil 378 with the date at 5/06/14
    • House Term issued 378
  • Soybeans 94 with the date at 4/23/14

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,345,614 open, down 1,143
  • Total beans 587,219 open, up 5,572
  • Total meal 304,302 open, up 3,347
  • Total bean oil 305,679 open, down 7,720
  • Total wheat 360,605 open, up 1,790
  • Total KC wheat 148,532 open, down 1,063

 

Estimates for today’s USDA report

 

US 2014 wheat production estimates

  • All winter wheat (19 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 1.468 BB , range of estimates are 1.312-1.591 BB.  Final USDA 2013 all winter wheat production was 1.534 BB
  • Hard red winter wheat (19 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .782 BB, range of estimates are .610-.870 BB. Final USDA 2013 HRW wheat production was .744 BB.
  • Soft red winter wheat (19 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .467 BB, range of estimates are .409-.569 BB. Final USDA 2013 SRW wheat production was .565 BB
  • White winter wheat (18 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .219 BB , range of estimates are .188-.268 BB. Final USDA 2013 WW wheat production was .225 BB
  • All wheat (18 analysts surveyed)  – average estimate 2.046 BB, range of 1.891- 2.182 BB. Final USDA 2013 all wheat production was 2.130 BB

 

‘13/14 US grain ending stock estimates

  • Wheat (21 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .588 BB, range of estimates are .570-.633 BB. USDA April estimate was .583 BB
  • Corn (23 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 1.314 BB, range of estimates are 1.231 – 1.435 BB. USDA April estimate was 1.331 BB
  • Beans (23 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .134 BB, range of estimates are .125-.174 BB. USDA April estimate was .135 BB

 

‘14/15 US grain ending stock estimates

  • Wheat (20 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .553 BB, range of estimates are .425 – .747 BB
  • Corn (22 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 1.672 BB, range of estimates are 1.295-2.354 BB
  • Beans (22 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .307 BB, range of estimates are .200 – .464 BB

 

‘13/14 World ending stock estimates

  • Wheat (14 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 185.95 MMT, range of estimates are 181.91 – 189.00 MMT. USDA April estimate was 186.68 MMT
  • Corn (14 analysts surveyed)  – average estimate 157.31 MMT , range of estimates are 149.45 – 161.20 MMT. USDA April estimate was 158.00 MMT
  • Beans (15 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 69.77 MMT, range of estimates are 67.30-73.0 MMT. USDA April estimate was 69.42 MMT

 

‘14/15 World ending stock estimates

  • Wheat (11 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 184.53 MMT, range of estimates are 178.00-200.00 MMT
  • Corn (11 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 159.41 MMT , range of estimates are 149.90-175.00 MMT
  • Beans (11 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 80.34 MMT, range of estimates are 67.0-95.0 MMT

 

‘13/14 Argentina and Brazilian crop estimates

  • Argentina corn (15 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 23.86 MMT, range of estimates are 22.30-25.0 MMT. USDA April estimate was 24.0 MMT
  • Argentina beans (15 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 54.40 MMT, range of estimates are 53.50-57.0 MMT. USDA April estimate was 54.00
  • Brazil corn (15 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 72.10 MMT, range of estimates are 70.50-74.0 MMT. USDA April estimate was 72.0 MMT
  • Brazil beans (15 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 87.23 MMT, range of estimates are 86.5-87.5 MMT. USDA April estimate was 87.50 MMT

 

’14/15 World and US Cotton estimates

  • Cotton world production (13 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 115.50 million bales , range of estimates are 114.0-118.0 MB . USDA ‘13/14 world production estimate is 116.62 MB
  • Cotton world demand (13 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 112.75 million bales, range of estimates are 109.5 – 119.2 MB . USDA ‘13/14 world demand estimated at 109.25 MB
  • China cotton imports (13 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 8.0 million bales, range of estimates are 6.0 -11.25 MMT . USDA ‘13/14 China cotton imports estimated at 12.0 MB
  • Cotton world ending stocks (13 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 99.90 million bales, range of estimates are 94.2 -105.0 MB. USDA ‘13/14 world ending stock estimate was 96.92 MB
  • Cotton US production (13 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 15.10 million bales, range of estimates are 14.6- 16.5 MB . USDA ‘13/14 estimate was 12.87 MB
  • Cotton US demand (13 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 3.70 million bales, range of estimates are 3.10 -3.85 MB. USDA ‘13/14 estimate was 3.65 MB
  • Cotton US exports (13 analysts surveyed) average estimate 10.25 million bales, range of estimates are 9.35-14.0 MB. USDA ‘13/14 estimate was 10.70 MB
  • Cotton US ending stocks (13 analysts surveyed) average estimate 3.87 million bales, range of estimates are 2.30-4.80 MB. USDA ‘13/14 estimate was 2.5 MB

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out on Monday with their April data report. Based on a Bloomberg survey- Estimates for the report
    • Palm oil stocks average estimate 1.74 MMT vs. March stocks of 1.69 MMT and vs. 1.91 MMT in April 2013
    • Palm oil output average estimate 1.55 MMT vs. March output of 1.50 MMT and vs. 1.37 MMT in April 2013.
    • Palm oil exports average estimate 1.29 MMT vs. March exports of 1.24 MMT and vs. 1.46 MMT in April 2013.
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out on Monday with their May 1-10th palm oil export estimates .
  • Weekly US export inspection report comes out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CST. Expecting corn planting to be 50-55% complete.
  • China to auction 300,000 tons of beans from reserves on Tuesday
  • Thursday May 15th NOPA April crush report comes out at 11 am CST
  • Last trading day for May futures is May 15th at noon CST
  • Analysts expecting palm oil demand to pick up ahead of Ramadan. Ramadan begins June 28th

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE