News From The Grain Floor

ood morning.

 

“Give a man a fish and he has food for a day; teach him how to fish and you can get rid of him for the entire weekend.”

–Zenna Schaffer

 

USDA announced 140,000 tons of beans sold to unknown for ‘14/15 shipment

 

Overnight closes

  • SN up 3 ¾ at 1450
  • CN down 5 at 509
  • WN down 6 ½ at 731
  • KC WN down 6 ¼ at 835 ¼
  • MWN down 6 ¾ at 800 ¾
  • SMN up .90 at 475.80
  • BON up 12 at 4094
  • RRN down 1.50 at 1553

 

Overnight volume

  • SN 11,547
  • CN 18,579
  • WN 7,123
  • KC WN 941
  • MWN 98
  • SMN 3,450
  • BON 6,010
  • RRN 28

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 3-5 higher
  • Corn 4-6 lower
  • Wheat 5-7 lower
  • KC wheat 5-7 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 5-7 lower
  • Meal .50-1.50 higher
  • Bean oil 10-20 higher
  • Rice 1-3 lower

 

Gold higher. Dollar, stock market, silver, and crude oil lower

 

Nikkei up .93%

Hang Seng  up .4%

Shanghai Index down .1%

 

Tensions in Ukraine are easing

 

Weekly US jobless claims report came out this morning at – 26K to 319K expecting 325K

 

China’s April trade data came out last night – General Administration of Customs

  • China’s April exports +.9% expecting – 3.5%
  • China’s April imports +.8% expecting – 3.2%
  • China’s April trade surplus $18.46 billion expecting a surplus of $17.3 billion
  • China April crude oil imports at 27.88 MMT vs. 23.52 MMT in March and vs. 23.08 MMT in April 2013
  • China April edible oil imports at 540,000 tons
  • China April bean imports at 6.5 MMT (expecting 7.0 MMT)  up 40.7% from March and up 63.3% from April 2013
  • China’s Jan – April bean imports at 21.85 MMT up 41.2% from a year ago

 

China grain closings – beans up 18, corn down 3, meal up 8, palm oil down 36, bean oil down 42

 

Malaysian palm oil down 16.

 

China to auction 300,000 tons of beans from reserves on Tuesday.

 

China’s Ministry of Agriculture said as of May 6th China has planted 60.1% of their spring grain crop vs. 49.3% a year ago

 

Lebanon bought 30,000 Ukraine wheat for June shipment

 

Reports Japan was eyeing US corn for August – Sept shipment yesterday

 

32 ethanol receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon

 

23 new KC wheat was registered yesterday afternoon out of ADM Hutchinson ELEV I KS

 

18 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of Cargill Ackley IA

 

July bean oil 100 day moving average is 4087

 

July bean oil 200 day moving average is 4191

 

Heavy rains in forecast for Iowa this weekend and Monday

 

US Plains dry rain is needed some rains in forecast for east and southeast areas.

 

Good harvest weather in Argentina next 7 days

 

Deliveries

  • Meal 6 with the date at April 23
  • Bean oil 6 with the date at May 1
  • Rice 1 with the date at April 25
  • Corn 16 with the date at March 5th
  • KC wheat 23 with the date at April 24th
    • House ADM issued 23
  • Minneapolis wheat 3 with the date at May 5th
  • Beans 143 with the date at April 22nd
  • Chicago wheat 129 with the date at May 5th

 

CONAB came out today with their Brazilian crop estimate updates.

  • ‘13/14 bean crop estimated at 86.57 MMT vs. previous estimate of 86.08 MMT
  • ‘13/14 total corn crop estimated at 75.19 MMT vs. previous estimate of 75.46 MMT
  • 2014 wheat crop estimated at 6.88 MMT vs. previous estimate of  6.7 MMT

 

Weekly US export sales report came out this morning

  • Wheat ‘13/14 320,500   ‘14/15 125,000  (expecting 300,000 – 600,000 tons)
  • Corn ‘13/14  161,300 ‘14/15 121,000   (expecting 600,000 – 1.1 M tons )
  • Beans ‘13/14 40,800  ‘14/15 14,200  (expecting old crop  – 100,000 to +100,000 , new crop 100,000 – 300,000 tons)
  • Meal ‘13/14 75,000 ‘14/15 62,200 (expecting old crop 50,000 – 150,000 , new crop 0 – 200,000)
  • Bean oil ‘13/14 7,700 ‘14/15 0 (expecting 0-30,000 tons)

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 320,500 metric tons for delivery during the 2013/2014 marketing year were up 49 percent from the previous week and 26 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases for Brazil (76,500 MT), Indonesia (66,400 MT), Thailand (50,000 MT), Mexico (42,800 MT), Nigeria (32,700 MT, including 9,200 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Italy (23,800 MT, including 25,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,300 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (36,300 MT) and the United Kingdom (1,000 MT). Net sales of 125,000 MT for 2014/2015 were primarily for Mexico (48,700 MT), unknown destinations (45,000 MT), Peru (20,000 MT), and Venezuela (9,000 MT). Decreases were reported for the Leeward Windward Islands (5,500 MT). Exports of 526,600 MT were down 22 percent from the previous week and 8 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Nigeria (118,200 MT), Mexico (90,900 MT), Japan (80,800 MT), Guatemala (48,900 MT), Indonesia (46,400 MT), and Israel (36,300 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 161,300 MT for 2013/2014 were down 83 percent from the previous week and 77 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Japan (212,600 MT, including 150,000 MT switched from China and 49,700 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 27,500 MT), Colombia (102,200 MT, including 100,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Taiwan (82,800 MT, including 65,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,600 MT), Spain (57,000 MT, including 55,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (28,200 MT), and the Dominican Republic (23,600 MT, including 8,000 MT switched from unknown destinations). Decreases were reported for China (210,000 MT), unknown destinations (116,800 MT), Costa Rica (37,200 MT), and Egypt (17,200 MT). Net sales of 121,000 MT for 2014/2015 were reported for unknown destinations (65,000 MT), Costa Rica (37,900 MT), Colombia (10,000 MT), and Guatemala (8,100 MT). Exports of 1,415,100 MT were up 16 percent from the previous week and 11 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (507,200 MT), Mexico (220,800 MT), South Korea (140,100 MT), Taiwan (135,000 MT), Egypt (118,800 MT), Vietnam (63,000 MT), and Spain (57,000 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 40,800 MT for 2013/2014 were up noticeably from the previous week and 97 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases reported for Japan (19,700 MT), Mexico (9,300 MT), Vietnam (8,800 MT), Barbados (3,500 MT), and Taiwan (3,500 MT), were partially offset by decreases for Israel (9,000 MT), Cuba (800 MT), and China (200 MT). Net sales of 14,200 MT for 2014/2015 were for Israel (13,500 MT), Japan (400 MT), and Canada (300 MT). Exports of 132,400 MT were down 51 percent from the previous week and 65 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (40,400 MT), Indonesia (28,600 MT), Egypt (27,300 MT), Vietnam (9,800 MT), Cuba (7,200 MT), Taiwan (5,800 MT), and Japan (5,100 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 75,000 MT for 2013/2014 were down 47 percent from the previous week and 45 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases reported for Mexico (18,600 MT), Egypt (18,000 MT), Canada (12,700 MT), the Philippines (10,800 MT), the Dominican Republic (3,600 MT, including 500 MT switched from unknown destinations), Sri Lanka (3,200 MT), and Ghana (3,200 MT, including 3,100 MT switched from unknown destinations), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (4,000 MT) and Honduras (300 MT). Net sales of 62,200 MT for 2014/2015 were reported for the Philippines (40,500 MT), Canada (11,700 MT), and Vietnam (10,000 MT). Exports of 156,700 MT were down 32 percent from the previous week and 24 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were the Philippines (47,600 MT), Mexico (35,500 MT), Canada (18,400 MT), Egypt (18,000 MT), the Dominican Republic (8,100 MT), and El Salvador (5,100 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 7,700 MT for 2013/2014 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases reported for Jamaica (3,500 MT), Mexico (3,300 MT) and Nicaragua (800 MT), were partially offset by decreases for Canada (100 MT). Exports of 6,600 MT were down 68 percent from the previous week and 71 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (4,600 MT), Canada (1,000 MT), Nicaragua (800 MT), and Trinidad (100 MT).

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,347,647 open, down 2,306
  • Total beans 581,995 open, down 435
  • Total meal 301,009 open, down 35
  • Total bean oil 314,456 open, down 301
  • Total wheat 358,899 open, down 3,160
  • Total KC wheat 149,674 open, down 1,011

 

Estimates for Friday’s USDA report

 

US 2014 wheat production estimates

  • All winter wheat (19 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 1.468 BB , range of estimates are 1.312-1.591 BB.  Final USDA 2013 all winter wheat production was 1.534 BB
  • Hard red winter wheat (19 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .782 BB, range of estimates are .610-.870 BB. Final USDA 2013 HRW wheat production was .744 BB.
  • Soft red winter wheat (19 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .467 BB, range of estimates are .409-.569 BB. Final USDA 2013 SRW wheat production was .565 BB
  • White winter wheat (18 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .219 BB , range of estimates are .188-.268 BB. Final USDA 2013 WW wheat production was .225 BB
  • All wheat (18 analysts surveyed)  – average estimate 2.046 BB, range of 1.891- 2.182 BB. Final USDA 2013 all wheat production was 2.130 BB

 

‘13/14 US grain ending stock estimates

  • Wheat (21 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .588 BB, range of estimates are .570-.633 BB. USDA April estimate was .583 BB
  • Corn (23 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 1.314 BB, range of estimates are 1.231 – 1.435 BB. USDA April estimate was 1.331 BB
  • Beans (23 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .134 BB, range of estimates are .125-.174 BB. USDA April estimate was .135 BB

 

‘14/15 US grain ending stock estimates

  • Wheat (20 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .553 BB, range of estimates are .425 – .747 BB
  • Corn (22 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 1.672 BB, range of estimates are 1.295-2.354 BB
  • Beans (22 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .307 BB, range of estimates are .200 – .464 BB

 

‘13/14 World ending stock estimates

  • Wheat (14 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 185.95 MMT, range of estimates are 181.91 – 189.00 MMT. USDA April estimate was 186.68 MMT
  • Corn (14 analysts surveyed)  – average estimate 157.31 MMT , range of estimates are 149.45 – 161.20 MMT. USDA April estimate was 158.00 MMT
  • Beans (15 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 69.77 MMT, range of estimates are 67.30-73.0 MMT. USDA April estimate was 69.42 MMT

 

‘14/15 World ending stock estimates

  • Wheat (11 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 184.53 MMT, range of estimates are 178.00-200.00 MMT
  • Corn (11 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 159.41 MMT , range of estimates are 149.90-175.00 MMT
  • Beans (11 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 80.34 MMT, range of estimates are 67.0-95.0 MMT

 

‘13/14 Argentina and Brazilian crop estimates

  • Argentina corn (15 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 23.86 MMT, range of estimates are 22.30-25.0 MMT. USDA April estimate was 24.0 MMT
  • Argentina beans (15 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 54.40 MMT, range of estimates are 53.50-57.0 MMT. USDA April estimate was 54.00
  • Brazil corn (15 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 72.10 MMT, range of estimates are 70.50-74.0 MMT. USDA April estimate was 72.0 MMT
  • Brazil beans (15 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 87.23 MMT, range of estimates are 86.5-87.5 MMT. USDA April estimate was 87.50 MMT

 

’14/15 World and US Cotton estimates

  • Cotton world production (13 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 115.50 million bales , range of estimates are 114.0-118.0 MB . USDA ‘13/14 world production estimate is 116.62 MB
  • Cotton world demand (13 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 112.75 million bales, range of estimates are 109.5 – 119.2 MB . USDA ‘13/14 world demand estimated at 109.25 MB
  • China cotton imports (13 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 8.0 million bales, range of estimates are 6.0 -11.25 MMT . USDA ‘13/14 China cotton imports estimated at 12.0 MB
  • Cotton world ending stocks (13 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 99.90 million bales, range of estimates are 94.2 -105.0 MB. USDA ‘13/14 world ending stock estimate was 96.92 MB
  • Cotton US production (13 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 15.10 million bales, range of estimates are 14.6- 16.5 MB . USDA ‘13/14 estimate was 12.87 MB
  • Cotton US demand (13 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 3.70 million bales, range of estimates are 3.10 -3.85 MB. USDA ‘13/14 estimate was 3.65 MB
  • Cotton US exports (13 analysts surveyed) average estimate 10.25 million bales, range of estimates are 9.35-14.0 MB. USDA ‘13/14 estimate was 10.70 MB
  • Cotton US ending stocks (13 analysts surveyed) average estimate 3.87 million bales, range of estimates are 2.30-4.80 MB. USDA ‘13/14 estimate was 2.5 MB

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST expecting +70 BCF
  • USDA report comes out tomorrow at 11 am CST .
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out on Monday with their April data report. In April (March data report) the report was
    • Palm oil stocks at 1.688 MMT
    • Palm oil exports at 1.24 MMT
    • Palm oil output at 1.497 MMT
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out on Monday with their May 1-10th palm oil export estimates .
  • China to auction 300,000 tons of beans from reserves on Tuesday
  • Thursday May 15th NOPA April crush report comes out at 11 am CST
  • Last trading day for May futures is May 15th at noon CST
  • Analysts expecting palm oil demand to pick up ahead of Ramadan. Ramadan begins June 28th

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE