News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

War is not the answer, because only love can conquer hate.

– Marvin Gaye

 

Overnight closes

  • SN down 9 ¾ at 1503
  • CN down 3 ¼ at 515 ¾
  • WN down 4 ¼ at 717 ¼
  • KC WN down 1 ½ at 811
  • MWN down 2 at 766 ¾
  • SMN down 4.30 at 489.40
  • BON down 18 at 4193
  • RRN down .50 at 1555

 

Overnight volume

  • SN 9,439
  • CN 13,361
  • WN 5,572
  • KC WN 1,484
  • MWN 330
  • SMN 4,541
  • BON 5,331
  • RRN 14

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 8-11 lower
  • Corn 3-5 lower
  • Wheat 3-5 lower
  • KC wheat 1-3 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 1-3 lower
  • Meal 4-5 lower
  • Bean oil 15-25 lower
  • Rice steady lower

 

Dollar higher . Crude, gold, silver, and stock market lower.

 

China’s official April mfg PMI came out at 50.4 as expected vs. 50.3 in March

 

Today is the beginning of a new month.

 

Today is May Day. China, Brazil, Argentina, some European and Asian markets are closed.

 

Weekly US jobless claims report came out this morning at +14K to 344K expecting 320K

 

New CBOT price limits start today. See attachment for details.

 

100 new bean oil receipts were registered yesterday afternoon out of Cargill Ackley IA

 

16 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of Cargill Buffalo IA

 

Weekly US export sales report came out this morning

  • Wheat – ‘13/14 214,900 ‘14/15 219,600 (expecting old crop 150,000 – 350,000 , new crop 250,000 – 450,000 )
  • Corn – ‘13/14 937,900 ‘14/15 13,800 (expecting old crop 450,000 – 675,000 , new crop 200,000 – 500,000)
  • Beans –  ‘13/14 – 16,400 ‘14/15 78,900 (expecting old crop – 250, 000 to + 100,000 , new crop 250,000 – 450,000)
  • Meal – ‘13/14 140,900 ‘14/15 0 (expecting old crop 50,000 – 190,000 , new crop 0- 75,000 )
  • Bean oil – ‘13/14 500 ‘14/15 0 (expecting old crop 0-50,000 , new crop 0 – 10,000 )

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 214,900 metric tons for delivery during the 2013/2014 marketing year were down 37 percent from the previous week and 25 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases for the Philippines (72,400 MT, including 20,700 MT switched from unknown destinations), Japan (60,600 MT), Brazil (56,500 MT, including 25,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Indonesia (44,500 MT), Colombia (36,800 MT, including 28,100 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 4,100 MT), and the Dominican Republic (13,500 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (97,100 MT), Panama (21,000 MT), and Vietnam (16,600 MT).  Net sales of 219,600 MT for 2014/2015 were primarily for unknown destinations (49,000 MT), Brazil (30,000 MT), Mexico (28,200 MT), and Japan (26,000 MT)..  Exports of 678,600 MT were up 31 percent from the previous week and 27 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were Colombia (126,400 MT), Japan (65,900 MT), Nigeria (65,000 MT), China (63,000 MT), Brazil (54,500 MT), and Yemen (53,900 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 937,900 MT for 2013/2014 were up 52 percent from the previous week and 35 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were reported for Japan (587,800 MT, including 139,300 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,600 MT), Mexico (197,900 MT), South Korea (115,500 MT, including 65,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 4,500 MT), Costa Rica (36,000 MT), Venezuela (30,000 MT, including 22,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Morocco (30,000 MT).  Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (145,300 MT), China (18,800 MT), and Jamaica (2,000 MT).  Net sales of 13,800 MT for 2014/2015 for unknown destinations (16,300 MT), were partially offset by decreases for China (2,500 MT).  Exports of 1,216,000 MT were down 25 percent from the previous week and 8 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were Japan (356,200 MT), Mexico (182,700 MT), Egypt (129,400 MT), Spain (67,000 MT), Colombia (65,900 MT), China (61,400 MT), and South Korea (60,500 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales reductions of 16,400 MT for 2013/2014–a marketing-year low–were up noticeably from the previous week, but down noticeably from the prior 4-week average.  Increases reported for Indonesia (84,500 MT, including 68,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,100 MT), Egypt (26,300 MT, including 25,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Canada (26,200 MT, including 24,400 MT switched from unknown destinations), Japan (12,100 MT, including 10,100 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 700 MT), Cuba (5,000 MT), and Vietnam (4,700 MT), were more than offset by decreases for unknown destinations (154,100 MT), Mexico (19,800 MT), and China (5,000 MT).  Net sales of 78,900 MT for 2014/2015 were primarily for China (64,000 MT), Japan (26,400 MT), and Indonesia (6,000 MT).  Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (23,500 MT) and Vietnam (1,000 MT).  Exports of 272,600 MT were up 50 percent from the previous week, but down 42 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were Indonesia (100,500 MT), Mexico (51,300 MT), Canada (27,700 MT), Egypt (26,300 MT), Colombia (20,000 MT), and Japan (15,000 MT).
  •  Meal – Net sales of 140,900 MT for 2013/2014 were down 24 percent from the previous week and 21 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were reported for Venezuela (41,000 MT), Mexico (28,300 MT), Bangladesh (18,700 MT), Canada (12,300 MT), unknown destinations (12,200 MT), Colombia (8,600 MT, including 8,400 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,500 MT), and the Philippines (4,800 MT, including 4,000 MT switched from unknown destinations).  Exports of 230,700 MT were up 39 percent from the previous week, but down 6 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were Mexico (40,200 MT), Venezuela (36,000 MT), the Philippines (30,800 MT), Colombia (29,900 MT), the Dominican Republic (24,700 MT), and Canada (20,000 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 500 MT for 2013/2014 were down 91 percent from the previous week and 90 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases reported for Mexico (2,100 MT) and Nicaragua (300 MT), were partially offset by decreases for Canada (1,900 MT) and Hong Kong (100 MT).  Exports of 20,400 MT were up noticeably from the previous week, but down 5 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were the Dominican Republic (8,100 MT), Mexico (8,100 MT), Venezuela (3,000 MT), Canada (700 MT), and Nicaragua (300 MT).

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange Weekly Argentina crop report

  • Bean harvest is 56.7% complete vs. 42.5% a week ago and vs. 66.2% a year ago
  • Bean crop estimated at 54.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Corn harvest is 25% complete vs. 23% a week ago and vs. 43% a year ago
  • Corn crop estimated at 24.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Deliveries

  • Meal = 19 with the date at 2/11/14
  • Bean oil = 2,336 with the date at 4/29/14
  • Rice = 72 with the date at 4/24/14
  • Corn = 9 with the date at 9/13/13
  • Wheat = 113 with the date at 4/24/14
  • Mini wheat 5 with the date at 4/14/14
  • Minneapolis wheat 249 with the date current

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,357,629 open , down 6,664
  • Total beans 605,736 open, down 5,406
  • Total meal 311,968 open, down 675
  • Total bean oil 308,708 open, up 1,488
  • Total wheat 359,484 open, up 2,938
  • Total KC wheat 144,805 open, up 1,566

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST expecting +78 BCF
  • Final results from US HRW wheat crop tour comes out this afternoon
  • US Unemployment report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Informa comes out tomorrow at 1030 am CST
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST
  • Reports – China may start auctioning beans from reserves starting on May 6th. May auction up to 3.0 MMT .
  • USDA report comes out May 9th at 11 am CST

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE