News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

“The best thing about the future is that it only comes one day at a time.”
Abraham Lincoln

 

Today is first notice day for May futures. Deliveries were

  • Wheat – 144 with the date at 4/08/14 (expecting 0-250)
    • House Term issued 144
  • Minneapolis wheat – 453 with the date at 4/22/14 (expecting 0-400 deliveries)
    • House Term issued 453
  • Bean oil – 2,596 with the date at 4/23/14 (expecting 500-1,000)
    • Customer JP Morgan issued 500
    • House ADM stopped 9
  • Rice –  80 with the date at 4/21/14
  • No beans (as expected)
  • No meal (as expected)
  • No corn (as expected)
  • No KC wheat (expecting 0-400)

 

Today is month end.

 

Overnight closes

  • SN down 5 ¼ at 1512
  • CN down 3 ¾ at 517 ¾
  • WN down 1 ½ at 715
  • KC WN down a ½ at 802
  • MWN down 1 ¾ at 759 ½
  • SMN down .70 at 490.50
  • BON down 22 at 4273
  • RRN down 2.50 at 1551.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SN 10,997
  • CN 14,933
  • WN 9,667
  • KC WN 1,576
  • MWN 718
  • SMN 3,781
  • BON 5,048
  • RRN 82

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 4-6 lower
  • Corn 3-5 lower
  • Wheat 1-3 lower
  • KC wheat steady to 2 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 1-3 lower
  • Meal .50-1.50 lower
  • Bean oil 15-25 lower
  • Rice 2-4 lower

 

Crude, gold, silver, stock market, and dollar lower.

 

Nikkei up .111%

Hang Seng down 1.425%

Shanghai Index up .295%

 

Today is the second day of the FOMC meeting. Fed announcement today at 1 pm CST.

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday

  • Crude a build of 3.0 MB expecting a build of 2.4 MB
  • Gas a draw of 49,000 expecting a draw of 600,000
  • Distillates a build of 688,000 expecting a build of 600,000

 

Malaysian palm oil down 2.

 

China grain closings – beans up 12, corn up 5, meal up 22, palm oil down 16, and bean oil down 2

 

Indonesia government may change palm oil export tax system.

 

Pakistan bought 110,000 tons of rapeseed from the Black Sea region for July –Sept shipment.

 

Ethiopia seeks 70,000 optional origin milling wheat .

 

Syria tenders to sell 200,000 tons of wheat to Iraq .

 

Tunisia 2014 grain crop estimated at 2.2 MMT vs. 2013 crop of 1.3 MMT

 

Yesterday was the first day of the annual Wheat Quality Council’s Kansas wheat tour. Tour ends tomorrow.

  • Crop tour estimated average yield for north-central Kansas at 38.1 BPA vs. 47.0 BPA a year ago
  • Crop tour estimated average yield for northern Kansas at 34.7 BPA vs. 43.8 BPA a year ago and vs. 43.8 BPA five year average

 

64 bean receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon

  • 11 out of Cargill Lacon IL
  • 20 out of ADM Hennepin IL
  • 33 out of ADM Henry IL

 

Cargill Ackley Iowa issued 500 new bean oil receipts yesterday afternoon

 

Bunge Milling Danville IL canceled 27 bean oil receipts yesterday afternoon

 

51 new rice receipts were registered yesterday afternoon

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated 2014 US corn yield at 163-165 BPA

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated 2014 US bean yield at 44-45 BPA

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘13/14 Brazilian bean crop at 86.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘13/14 Brazilian corn crop at 72.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘13/14 Argentine bean crop at 53.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘13/14 Argentine corn crop at 23.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

May meal made a new contract high yesterday of 503.50 .

 

Concerns about dry weather in the US Plains . Limited rains in forecast for the next 10 days

 

Midwest weather forecast – cool and wet this week , warmer and drier this weekend into early next week

 

Good harvest weather for Argentina next 5-7 days

 

Open outcry option players from yesterday

 

Corn:

New Edge sold 2400 short dated N 500-520 call spreads

JPM bot 2000 Z 520-620 call spreads

JPM bot 800 H 470 puts/sold 800 H 600 calls

FI sold 1500 Z 500 calls

Bache bot 1500 N 490 puts

ICAP sold 1250 U 470 puts/550 call strangles

ABN sold 500 Z 450 puts

RJO bot 500 week 2 505 puts

ADM bot 400 short dates N 520 calls/sold 600 U 550 calls

 

Beans:

GFI Bot 1200 Nov 1100/1060 Put spds 7 db

JP Morgan Sold 200 1480 Jul Calls 60-61

FI Bot 200 Nov 1240/1180 Put spds / Sold 200 Nov 1360 Calls 4 credit

Rosenthal Bot 1000 Nov 1100/1060 Put spds 7 db

Marex Bot 4700 Mch 1060 puts 17.5-18 – Open interest went up 5,035

FI Bot 250 Nov 1200/1100 Put spds / Sold 250 Nov 1400 Calls 7 db

ADM Sold 200 Jul 1500 Puts 42.25-43

JP Morgan Bot 1000 Jul 1560 Calls 28.25/ Sold 360 Jul futures 1510

JP Morgan Bot 1000 Jul 1560 Calls 30.25/ Sold 370 Jul futures 1514

JP Morgan Bot 1000 Jul 1560 Calls 31.5/ Sold 380 Jul futures 1518

Tenco Bot 1000 Nov 1100/1060 puts spds 7 db

Rosenthal Bot 2000 Jul 1350 Puts 5.375-5.5

Goldenberg Bot 200 Jan 1180 Puts/ Sold 400 Jan 1100 Puts .5 db

Marex Sold 1500 Nov 1060 Puts 12.875-13/ Sold 150 Nov futures 1244

JP Morgan Bot 500 June 1380 Puts 2

EDF Sold 1000 SDFN 1210 Puts 16.5-17

Fimat Sold 850 Jul 1400/1300 Put spds 8 credit

Fimat Sold 600 Sep 1200/1100 Put spds 15-15.125credit

Tenco Sold 50 Jul 1420 Puts 14

Rosenthal Bot 500 Jul 1400 Puts 10.625-10.75

ABN Bot 1000 June 1520 Calls/ sold 1000 Jul 1480 Puts even

ADM Bot 450 SDFN 1100 Calls 149.5-150

Obrien Bot 1000 Nov 1200/1100 Put spds 30 db

 

Wheat:

ABN bot 1000 N 660-640 put spreads

RJO bot 500 N 630-570 put spreads

 

Meal:

Rosenthal bot 250 H 360 puts

JPM bot 250 N 490 calls

JPM sold 200 Q 440 calls

JPM bot 200 Q 470 calls

RJO bot 250 N 480-440 put spreads/sold 250 N 520 calls

FI sold 200 N 450 puts

 

Oil:

JPM bot 250 N 45 calls

 

Estimated fund activity from yesterday

  • Wheat bought 3K
  • Corn bought 10K
  • Beans bought 6K
  • Meal bought 3K
  • Bean oil bought 1K

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn – 1,364,430 open , down 5,489
  • Total beans – 611,447 open, down 2,018
  • Total meal – 312,958 open, down 76
  • Total bean oil 307,497 open, down 98
  • Total wheat 356,585 open, down 4,087
  • Total KC wheat 143,271 open, up 1,731

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly DOE #s come out today at 930 am CST . Expecting
    • Crude a build of 2.2 MB
    • Gas a draw of 900,000
    • Distillates a build of 500,000
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 930 am CST
  • Tomorrow is May Day holiday,  China and some European markets will be closed
  • See attachment for new CBOT price limits effective May 1st – these limits are subject to change and there will be no price limits on options.
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Final results from US HRW wheat crop tour comes out tomorrow
  • US Unemployment report comes out on Friday at 730 am CST
  • Reports – China may start auctioning beans from reserves starting on May 6th. May auction up to 3.0 MMT .
  • USDA report comes out May 9th at 11 am CST

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE