News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

Talk about your plenty, talk about your ills, one man gathers what another man spills.

Jerry Garcia

 

Today is position day for May futures. Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery. Expecting

  • Beans 0-65 deliveries. As of yesterday there are 65 bean receipts registered
  • Meal 0-19 deliveries. As of yesterday there was 19 meal receipts registered
  • Bean oil 500-2,000 deliveries. As of yesterday there was 10,903 receipts registered
  • Corn 0-235 deliveries. As of yesterday there was 234 receipts registered.
  • Wheat 0 – 300. As of yesterday there was 253 receipts registered
  • KC wheat 0-200. As of yesterday there was 102 receipts registered
  • Minneapolis wheat 0.

 

Overnight closes

  • SN up ¾ at 1500 ¾
  • CN up 4 at 517 ¾
  • WN down 1 ¼ at 707 ¼
  • KC WN down ¾ at 786
  • MWN down 2 at 751 ½
  • SMN unchanged at 484.80
  • BON up 7 at 4290
  • RRN down 1.50 at 1536

 

Overnight volume

  • SN 8,718
  • CN 19,669
  • WN 7,884
  • KC WN 948
  • MWN 345
  • SMN 3,814
  • BON 6,397
  • RRN 15

 

Opening calls

  • Beans steady better
  • Corn 3-5 higher
  • Wheat 1-2 lower
  • KC wheat steady lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 1-3 lower
  • Meal steady mixed
  • Bean oil steady to 10 higher
  • Rice 1-2 lower

 

Dollar and crude higher

 

Nikkei down .977%

Hang Seng up 1.452%

Shanghai index up .840%

 

FOMC two day policy meeting begins today.

 

Palm oil down 34

 

Chinese grain closings – beans up 17, corn down 1, meal down 9, palm oil down 54, and bean oil down 34

 

Reports that about 350,000 tons of Brazilian beans are headed to the US .

 

Chinese industry analysts – Weekly Chinese crush breakdown

  • For the week April 19-25th total crush volume at 1,499,550 tons down 1.31% from a week ago
  • For the week April 19-25th total crush capacity utilization at 52.61% down .7% from a week ago
  • Total ‘13/14 (Oct 1st , 2013 – April 25th, 2014) crush volume at 39,447,438 tons up 20.35% from a year ago
  • Total 2014 (Jan 1st– April  25th) crush volume at 20,899,641 tons up 18.18% from a year ago
  • As of April 25th total imported bean stocks at 5.5982 MMT down 155,000 tons from a week ago and up 38.49% from a year ago
  • Estimated April bean imports at 6.484 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated May bean imports at 5.8 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated June bean imports at 5.3 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated July bean imports at 5.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday’s close

 

Corn

  • Planted 19% vs. 6% a week ago and vs. 28% five year average
  • Emerged 3% vs. 2% a year ago and vs. 6% five year average

 

Soybeans

  • Planted 3% vs. 0% a year ago and vs. 4% five year average

 

Winter wheat

  • Condition – 33% good to excellent vs. 34% a week ago and vs. 33% a year ago
  • Headed 18% vs. 9% a week ago and vs. 26% five year average

 

Spring wheat

  • Planted – 18% vs. 10% a week ago and vs. 30% five year average
  • Emerged – 5% vs. 3% a year ago and vs. 9% five year average

 

Rice

  • Planted 45% vs. 32% a week ago and vs. 56% five year average
  • Emerged 25% vs. 16% a week ago and vs. 35% five year average

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • Tomorrow is first notice day for May futures
  • Weekly DOE #s come out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • See attachment for new CBOT price limits effective May 1st – these limits are subject to change and there will be no price limits on options.
  • US Unemployment report comes out on Friday May 2nd at 730 am CST
  • Reports – China may start auctioning beans from reserves starting on May 6th. May auction up to 3.0 MMT .
  • USDA report comes out May 9th at 11 am CST

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE