News From The Grain Floor

“Without deviation from the norm, progress is not possible.”

― Frank Zappa

 

May options expire today at 115 pm CST. See below for open interest in some May options.

 

Overnight closes

  • SN up 10 ¼ at 1480 ¼
  • CN up 4 ½ at 511 ¾
  • WN up 7 ¾ at 704 ¼
  • KC WN up 8 ½ at 774
  • MWN up 6 ¼ at 745 ¾
  • SMN up 4.70 at 475.40
  • BON up 18 at 4277
  • RRN down .50 at 1545

 

Overnight volume

  • SN 17,942
  • CN 12,115
  • WN 5,255
  • KC WN 581
  • MWN 433
  • SMN 6,551
  • BON 8,142
  • RRN 22

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 8-12 higher
  • Corn 4-6 higher
  • Wheat 7-10 higher
  • KC wheat 8-10 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 5-7 higher
  • Meal 4.50-5.50 higher
  • Bean oil 15-25 higher
  • Rice steady mixed

 

Gold and silver higher. Dollar, stock market, and crude oil lower.

 

Nikkei up .166%

Hang Seng down 1.504%

Shanghai Index down .999%
Tensions in Ukraine continue

 

Chinese grain closings – beans up 68, corn up 4, meal up 28, palm oil up 38, and bean oil up 30

 

Palm oil up 9.

 

SGS estimated Malaysia’s April 1-25th palm oil exports at 965,446 tons up 3.4% from a month ago

 

Intertek estimated Malaysia’s April 1-25th palm oil exports at 958,815 tons up 3.4% from a month ago

 

Active corn planting on Wednesday and Thursday in IL, IN, IA, and MO . Rains are now in the forecast for the weekend and next week

 

Philippines bought 55,000 feed wheat from India for June shipment

 

Most Asian importers wheat needs are covered through July (Reuters)

 

Lebanon seeks 30,000 tons of optional origin milling wheat for May shipment

 

Iraq canceled tender for 30,000 tons of rice due to high prices.

 

Oil World estimated 2014 Brazil biodiesel output at 2.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 2.9 MMT and vs. 2.6 MMT in 2013

 

Oil World estimated Jan – March 2014 Brazil soybean crush at 7.6 MMT vs. 7.4 MMT a year ago

 

Oil World estimated Brazil’s Jan – March bean exports at 9.1 MMT vs. 4.5 MMT a year ago

 

Oil World estimated Brazil, Argentina, and US April – Sept bean exports at 45.09 MMT vs. 46.86 MMT a year ago and vs. Oct – March exports of 50.73 MMT

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange – Weekly Argentine crop progress report

  • Bean harvest 42.5% complete vs. 21.4% a week ago and vs. 56.2% a year ago
  • Average bean yield at 31.8 TPH
  • Estimated ‘13/14 bean crop at 54.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Corn harvest is 23.3% complete vs. 19.8% a week ago and vs. 35.3% a year ago
  • Average corn yield at 73 TPH
  • Estimated Corn crop at 24.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Sunflower harvest is complete
  • Average yield at 16.3 TPH
  • Estimated Sunflower crop at 2.3 MMT vs. 3.3 MMT a year ago

 

ProZerno estimated Russia’s ‘13/14 grain exports at 24.5 MMT

 

Toepfer International estimated EU 2014 rapeseed crop at 21.09 MMT vs. 20.84 MMT in 2013

 

Toepfer estimated Germany’s 2014 rapeseed crop at 5.43 MMT vs. 2013 crop of 5.76 MMT

 

Toepfer estimated UK 2014 rapeseed crop at 2.38 MMT vs. 2013 crop of 2.13 MMT

 

ODA estimated EU 2014 rapeseed crop at 21.35 MMT

 

ODA estimated France’s 2014 rapeseed crop at 5.15 MMT vs. 2013 crop of 4.4 MMT

 

Sparks Polska estimated Poland’s 2014 rapeseed crop at 2.5 MMT down 11% from a year ago

 

CEC estimated 2014 South Africa corn crop at 13.029 MMT vs. previous estimate of 12.955 MMT and vs. Reuters poll estimate of 13.1 MMT

 

An avian- borne virus outbreak on a California quail farm has fueled fears that the disease known as bird flu could spread. (Reuters)

 

Vietnam government said Vietnam exported 2.12 MMT of rice between January – April down 3.7% from a year ago

 

24 rice receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon

 

Dry weather in US Plains with only light rains in forecast. Rain is needed.

 

Open interest in May options

  • CK 480 calls 8,027 open – puts 7,953 open
  • CK 490 calls 8,460 open – puts 5,819 open
  • CK 495 calls 4,036 open – puts 2,485 open
  • CK 500 calls 14,289 open – puts 6,310 open
  • CK 510 calls 10,525 open – puts 1,971 open
  • CK 520 calls 7,082 open – puts 795 open
  • SK 1470 calls 1,376 open – puts 1,726 open
  • SK 1480 calls 3,530 open – puts 2,870 open
  • SK 1490 calls 1,658 open – puts 1,656 open
  • SK 1500 calls 4,248 open – puts 1,748 open
  • SK 1510 calls 1,191 open – puts 720 open
  • SMK 470 calls 1,297 open – puts 1,150 open
  • SMK 480 calls 681 open – puts 2,449 open
  • SMK 490 calls 1,618 open – puts  780 open
  • BOK 42 calls 2,333 open – puts 1,438 open
  • BOK 4250 calls 1,956 open – puts 567 open
  • BOK 43 calls 2,166 open – puts 865 open
  • BOK 4350 calls 707 open – puts 100 open
  • WK 680 calls 2,387 open – puts 3,048 open
  • WK 685 calls 1,369 open – puts 995 open
  • WK 690 calls 2,913 open – puts 2,025 open
  • WK 695 calls 637 open – puts 410 open
  • WK 700 calls 4,557 open – puts 2,317 open
  • WK 705 calls 1,251 open – puts 225 open
  • WK 710 calls 3,459 open – puts 744 open

 

Open interest from yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,409,084 open, down 6,428
  • Total beans 648,170 open, down 7,360
  • Total meal 321,659 open, up 2,285
  • Total bean oil 321,991 open, down 7,140
  • Total wheat 372,905 open, up 4,035
  • Total KC wheat 143,102 open, up 1,283

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST
  • Wheat crop tour starts next week in US Plains
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CST. Some analysts expecting corn planting to be 20-23% complete vs. 6% a week ago
  • Position day for May futures is Tuesday. Traders should be out of long May positions by the close or risk delivery .
  • Wednesday is first notice day for May futures
  • FOMC 2 day policy meeting Tuesday and Wednesday
  • EIA to release January biodiesel report on Tuesday
  • See attachment for new CBOT price limits effective May 1st – these limits are subject to change and there will be no price limits on options.
  • US Unemployment report comes out on Friday May 2nd at 730 am CST
  • Reports – China may start auctioning beans from reserves starting on May 6th. May auction up to 3.0 MMT .
  • USDA report comes out May 9th at 11 am CST

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE