News From the Grain Floor

“Procrastination is the art of keeping up with yesterday.”

– Don Marquis

 

Overnight closes (CME)

  • SN up 5 ¾ at 1470 ½
  • CN up 2 ½ at 512
  • WN up 9 ¼ at 692
  • KC WN up 8 ¼ at 758 ¾
  • MWN up 8 ¼ at 735
  • SMN up 2.80 at 471.80
  • BON down 8 at 4270
  • RRN up 10.5 at 1535.50

 

Overnight volume (CME)

  • SN 19,906
  • CN 11,516
  • WN 8,290
  • KC WN 945
  • MWN 345
  • SMN 4,855
  • BON 7,226
  • RRN 60

 

Opening calls (CME)

  • Beans 4-6 higher
  • Corn 2-4 higher
  • Wheat 7-10 higher
  • KC wheat 7-9 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 7-10 higher
  • Meal 2.50-3.50 higher
  • Bean oil  5-15 lower
  • Rice 8-12 higher

 

Crude and stock market higher. Dollar, gold, and silver lower.

 

Nikkei down .971%

Hang Seng up .236%

Shanghai Index down .502%

 

Weekly US jobless claims report came out this morning at 730 am CST at  +24K to 329K expecting

 

Armed conflict in Kiev results in 5 Russian militant deaths.

 

China grain closings – beans up 12, corn unchanged, meal down 2, palm oil down 8, bean oil down 6

 

Palm oil unchanged

 

Morocco bought 30,000 tons of wheat from Poland for April shipment

 

Jordan seeks 150,000 optional origin milling wheat

 

Jordan seeks 150,000 optional origin barley

 

Thailand seeking soymeal

 

Disappointing rains in Oklahoma

 

Cool wet weather forecast for Midwest

 

Argentina dry favorable for harvest

 

July bean oil 50 day moving average is 4208

 

July bean oil 200 day moving average 4212

 

Weekly US export sales report came out this morning at 730 am CST

  • Wheat – ‘13/14 339,100  ‘14/15 271,100 (expecting old crop 200,000 – 400,000 ; new crop 250,000 – 500,000 )
  • Corn – ‘13/14 618,900  ‘14/15 382,900  (expecting old crop 500,000 – 800,000 ; new crop 150,000 – 250,000 )
  • Beans – ‘13/14 800    ‘14/15  118,200  (expecting old crop – 200,000 – + 100,000 ; new crop 350,000-550,000)
  • Meal – ‘13/14 186,300  ‘14/15 – 9,600  (expecting old crop 25,000 -125,000 ; new crop 50,000 – 100,000 )
  • Bean oil –  ‘13/14 5,700  ‘14/15 0   (expecting old crop 0-25,000 ; new crop 0-10,0000)

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 339,100 metric tons for delivery during the 2013/2014 marketing year were down 20 percent from the previous week, but up 13 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases for Japan (147,400 MT), Taiwan (68,700 MT), South Korea (63,800 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Indonesia (58,900 MT), Mexico (57,100 MT), the Philippines (31,300 MT, including 28,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Panama (21,000 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (131,700 MT), Peru (23,500 MT), Venezuela (15,000 MT), and the French West Indies (6,000 MT).  Net sales of 271,700 MT for 2014/2015 were primarily for unknown destinations (148,900 MT), Peru (28,500 MT), Brazil (25,000 MT), and Taiwan (23,900 MT).  Decreases were reported for El Salvador (1,900 MT).  Exports of 519,400 MT were down 4 percent from the previous week and 3 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were Japan (104,400 MT), Guatemala (49,500 MT), Thailand (48,900 MT), the Philippines (48,300 MT), Mexico (48,000 MT), and Yemen (45,000 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 618,900 MT for 2013/2014 were up 15 percent from the previous week, but down 30 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were reported for South Korea (185,000 MT, including 115,000 MT switched from China and 60,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Japan (168,900 MT, including 101,400 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 5,200 MT), Colombia (133,400 MT, including 154,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 17,200 MT), Saudi Arabia (115,000 MT, including 103,400 MT switched from unknown destinations), Egypt (91,600 MT, including 76,600 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Peru (52,600 MT, including 30,000 MT switched from Uruguay).  Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (215,900 MT), China (54,000 MT), and Uruguay (30,000 MT).  Net sales of 382,900 MT for 2014/2015 were reported for Mexico (240,000 MT), Japan (91,400 MT), and unknown destinations (89,400 MT).  Decreases were reported for Costa Rica (37,900 MT).  Exports of 1,621,100 MT were up 55 percent from the previous week and 33 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were Japan (243,300 MT), Colombia (231,000 MT), Egypt (224,600 MT), Taiwan (205,100 MT), South Korea (183,500 MT), Mexico (170,300 MT), and Saudi Arabia (117,000 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 800 MT for 2013/2014–a marketing-year low–were down 96 percent from the previous week and 98 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases reported for Canada (29,800 MT), Mexico (9,900 MT), Indonesia (5,200 MT), Barbados (3,500 MT), Japan (3,400 MT), Taiwan (2,400 MT), and Vietnam (1,700 MT), were partially offset by decreases for China (55,000 MT).  Net sales of 118,200 MT for 2014/2015 were primarily for unknown destinations (59,000 MT) and China (55,500 MT).  Exports of 182,200 MT were down 46 percent from the previous week and 70 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were Mexico (61,900 MT), Indonesia (42,900 MT), Japan (28,000 MT), Taiwan (17,600 MT), Colombia (17,400 MT), and Canada (7,500 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 186,300 MT for 2013/2014 were up noticeably from the previous week and 9 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were reported for Mexico (61,300 MT), Denmark (49,500 MT, including 45,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Ecuador (33,000 MT), Canada (21,800 MT), Cost Rica (10,100 MT), Guatemala (8,100 MT, switched from unknown destinations), and El Salvador (5,100 MT, including 4,000 MT switched from unknown destinations).  Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (13,000 MT) and the Dominican Republic (200 MT).  Net sales reductions of 9,600 MT for 2014/2015 resulted as increases for Mexico (2,900 MT), were more than offset by decreases for Cost Rica (10,100 MT) and Canada (2,400 MT).  Exports of 165,600 MT were unchanged from the previous week, but down 34 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were Denmark (49,500 MT), Italy (25,000 MT), Mexico (22,900 MT), Canada (21,500 MT), Honduras (11,900 MT), and Guatemala (8,100 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 5,700 MT for 2013/2014 were up 5 percent from the previous week and 21 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases reported for Mexico (4,800 MT), the Dominican Republic (500 MT), and Nicaragua (400 MT), were partially offset by decreases for Canada (200 MT).  Exports of 8,400 MT were down 16 percent from the previous week and 59 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were the Dominican Republic (3,500 MT), Mexico (3,400 MT), Canada (900 MT), and Nicaragua (400 MT).

 

Stats Canada came out this morning at 730 am CST with their 2014 planting intentions report. Based on a Reuters survey expecting

  • All wheat at 24.9  MA vs. average estimate of 24.4 MA and vs. 26.26 MA in 2013
  • Durum wheat at 4.8  MA vs. average estimate of 4.7 MA and vs. 4.965 MA in 2013
  • Canola at 19.8 MA vs. average estimate of 21.1 MA and vs. 19.936 MA in 2013
  • Oats at 3.2  MA vs. average estimate of 3.2 MA and vs. 3.17 MA in 2013
  • Barley at  6.3 MA vs. average estimate of 6.7 MA  and vs. 7.08 MA in 2013
  • Flax at 1.7 MA vs. average estimate of 1.3 MA and vs. 1.035 MA in 2013
  • Corn at 3.369 MA vs. average estimate of 3.4 MA and vs. 3.689 MA in 2013
  • Beans at 5.264 MA vs. average estimate of 4.8 MA and vs. 4.519 MA in 2013

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,415,508 open, up 22,809
  • Total beans 656,626 open, down 5,528
  • Total meal 319,883 open, up 271
  • Total bean oil 329,450 open, up 3,971
  • Total wheat 369,614 open, up 2,336
  • Total KC wheat 141,823 open, down 244

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST expecting +40 BCF
  • SGS and Intertek estimate Malaysia’s April 1-25th palm oil estimates on Friday.
  • May options expire tomorrow at 115 pm CST
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST
  • Wheat crop tour next week in US Plains
  • FOMC 2 day policy meeting Tuesday and Wednesday April 29th and 30th
  • EIA to release January biodiesel report on April 29th
  • See attachment for new CBOT price limits effective May 1st – these limits are subject to change and there will be no price limits on options.
  • Reports – China may start auctioning beans from reserves starting on May 6th. May auction up to 3.0 MMT .

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE