News From The Grain Floor

 

“The ultimate inspiration is the deadline.”

Nolan Bushnell

 

USDA announced 120K tons of sorghum sold to China for ‘13/14 shipment

 

Overnight closes (CME)

  • SN down 7 at 1463 ¾
  • CN up a ½ at 502 ½
  • WN down 4 at 675
  • KC WN down 6 at 740 ¾
  • MWN down 3 ¾  at 719 ½
  • SMN  down 1.90 at 468.40
  • BON down 20 at 4278
  • RRN up .50 at 1531.50

 

Overnight volume (CME)

  • SN 19,178
  • CN 12,227
  • WN 8,492
  • KC WN 1,417
  • MWN 136
  • SMN 5,335
  • BON 13,013
  • RRN 45

 

Opening calls (CME)

  • Beans 6-8 lower
  • Corn  steady better
  • Wheat 3-5 lower
  • KC wheat 5-7 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 3-5 lower
  • Meal 1.50-2.50 lower
  • Bean oil 15-25 lower
  • Rice steady better

 

Gold and silver higher. Crude, stock market, and dollar lower.

 

Nikkei up 1.095%

Hang Seng down .972%

Shanghai Index down .263%

 

April flash mfg PMIs came out this morning.

  • Eurozone at 53.3 expecting 53.1 and vs. March final of 53.0
  • German at 54.2 expecting 54.0 and vs. March final of 53.7
  • France at 50.9 expecting 51.9 and vs. March final of 52.1
  • HSBC China’s flash at 48.3 vs. March final of 48.0

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday

  • Crude a build of 519,000 expecting a build of 2.3 MB
  • Gas a draw of 3.4 MB expecting a draw of 1.7 MB
  • Distillates a build of 570,000 expecting a draw of 500,000

 

China grain closings – beans up 14, corn up 1, meal down 7, palm oil down 20, bean oil down 30.

 

Palm oil down 33.

 

Reports/market talk continue of South American beans and meal coming into the US . Some analysts are saying 8-12 bean cargoes and 7-9 meal cargoes are coming into the US.

 

Report/market talk more Argentine meal is headed into the US

 

Reports some SA soybean cargoes that China defaulted on are headed to Mexico

 

Reports –  Chinese government will restart its weekly bean reserve auctions on May 6th. Talk they will auction 3.0 MMT of beans initially

 

China sold 48,530 tons of wheat or 7.2% of what was offered, at today’s auction . They offered 675,445 tons of wheat.

 

Japan bought 108,789 tons of food wheat for May-Sept shipment . Breakdown

  • 29,670 tons of US hard red winter wheat
  • 21,749 tons of US dark northern spring wheat
  • 25,130 tons of Canada western red spring wheat
  • 32,240 tons of Australian white wheat

 

Iran bought 60,000 tons of Russian wheat

 

Venezuela seeks soymeal for July shipment

 

Japan seeks 29,550 tons of feed wheat and 33,510 tons of barley via SBS tender for July shipment

 

South Korea seeks 42,400 tons of rice optional origin for Sept Oct shipment

 

USDA attaché in Argentina estimated ‘14/15 bean crop at 57.5 MMT vs. ‘13/14 estimate of 54.0 MMT

 

USDA attaché in Argentina estimated ‘14/15 soybean area at 20.6 MH vs. 19.1 MH a year ago

 

Rosario Grains Exchange estimated Argentina’s ’13/14 bean crop at 54.9 MMT vs. previous estimate of 54.7 MMT

 

Rosario Grains Exchange estimated Argentina’s ‘13/14 corn crop at 23.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 22.7 MMT

 

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine exported 28.96 MMT of grain between July 1st – April 22nd vs. 20.5 MMT a year ago

 

Ukraine Ag Min estimated Ukraine’s ‘13/14 grain exports at 33.0 MMT

 

Kazakhstan Ag Min said Kazakhstan exported 7.3 MMT of grain between July 1st – April 20th

 

Kazakhstan Ag Min estimated Kazakhstan’s ‘13/14 grain exports at 9.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 9.0 MMT

 

Based on a Reuters survey – South Africa’s 2014 corn crop estimated at 13.1 MMT vs. previous survey estimate of 12.955 MMT

 

Morocco Ag Min estimated 2014 cereal harvest at 6.7 MMT including 3.7 MMT of wheat

 

Morocco Ag Min said Morocco to end suspension of custom duties on soft wheat imports on April 30th (Reuters)

 

Some chance of rains in the US Plains, but rains may miss the driest areas in the west. Some more chances of rains this weekend in the US Plains, but rains are favoring the northern and eastern areas

 

Argentina dry favoring harvesting

 

Australia is dry favoring field work

 

July Minneapolis wheat 200 day moving average is 717 ¼

 

July bean oil 200 day moving average is 4214

 

Yesterday Rosenthal bought 1,700 SN/SX CSO 200 puts at 13-14. Open interest this morning is 2,118 open, up 1,558 from yesterday.

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,392,815 open, down 8,181
  • Total beans 662,513 open, down 6,591
  • Total meal 320,040 open, down 6,869
  • Total bean oil 325,619 open, down 5,530
  • Total wheat 368,185 open, up 1,042
  • Total KC wheat 142,138 open, down 2,481

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly DOE #s come out today at 930 am CST. Expecting (DowJones)
    • Crude a build of 2.4 MB
    • Gas a draw of 1.4 MB
    • Distillates a draw of 300,000
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out today at 930 am CST
  • CEC comes out tomorrow with their South African crop estimates
  • Stats Canada comes out on Thursday at 730 am CST with their planting intentions report. Based on a Reuters survey expecting
  • All wheat average estimate 24.4 MA vs. 26.26 MA in 2013
  • Durum wheat average estimate 4.7 MA vs. 4.965 MA in 2013
  • Canola average estimate 21.1 MA vs. 19.936 MA in 2013
  • Oats average estimate 3.2 MA vs. 3.17 MA in 2013
  • Barley average estimate 6.7 MA  vs. 7.08 MA in 2013
  • Flax average estimate 1.3 MA vs. 1.035 MA in 2013
  • Corn average estimate 3.4 MA vs. 3.689 MA in 2013
  • Beans average estimate 4.8 MA vs. 4.519 MA in 2013
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • SGS and Intertek estimate Malaysia’s April 1-25th palm oil estimates on Friday.
  • May options expire Friday April 25th
  • Wheat crop tour next week in US Plains
  • FOMC 2 day policy meeting Tuesday and Wednesday April 29th and 30th
  • EIA to release January biodiesel report on April 29th
  • See attachment for new CBOT price limits effective May 1st – these limits are subject to change and there will be no price limits on options.

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE