News From The Grain Floor

 

“I led the league in go get ’em next time.”

Bob Uecker

 

USDA announced 240,000 tons of corn sold to Mexico for ‘14/15 shipment

 

Overnight closes (CME)

  • SN up 5 ¾ at 1493
  • CN up 4 ¼ at 498
  • WN up 3 ½ at 679
  • KC WN up 2 ¾ at 744 ½
  • MWN up 1 ½ at 721
  • SMN up 1.40 at 477.50
  • BON up 20 at 4346
  • RRN up 1 at 1531.50

 

Overnight volume (CME)

  • SN 9,526
  • CN 31,232
  • WN 9,431
  • KC WN 594
  • MWN 175
  • SMN 4,001
  • BON 5,273
  • RRN 46

 

Opening calls (CME)

  • Beans 5-7 higher
  • Corn 3-5 higher
  • Wheat 2-4 higher
  • KC wheat 2-4 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 1-3 higher
  • Meal 1-2 higher
  • Bean oil 15-25 higher
  • Rice steady better

 

Crude and dollar down . stock market, gold and silver higher .

 

Nikkei down .852%

Hang Seng down .130%

Shanghai Index up .338%

 

China grain closings – beans down 9, corn up 10, meal down 10, palm oil up 2, bean oil down 14

 

Palm oil up 40

 

Chinese industry analysts – Weekly Chinese crush breakdown (Chinese newsletter)

  • For the week April 12-18 total crush volume at 1,519,550 tons up 17.42% from a week ago
  • For the week April 12-18 total crush capacity utilization at 53.31% up 7.91% from a week ago
  • Total ‘13/14 (Oct 1, 2013 – April 18,2014) crush volume at 37,947,888 tons up 19.90% from a year ago
  • Total 2014 (Jan 1 – April 18, 2014) crush volume at 19,400,091 tons up 17.18% from a year ago
  • As of April 18th total bean imported stocks at 5.753 MMT up 315,000 from a week ago and up 45.75% from a year ago
  • Estimated April bean imports at 6.484 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated May bean imports at 5.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.5 MMT
  • Estimated June bean imports at 5.3 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated July bean imports at 5.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Barclay’s Bank announced yesterday or over the weekend that they are exiting the commodity market (Reuters)

 

Talk continues China is trying to resell Brazilian bean cargoes to the US (Reuters)

 

Reports of 2 cargoes of Argentine meal have been sold into the US east coast and more deals are being discussed (Reuters)

 

Reports of South American beans being shipped into the US

 

South Korea KFA bought 60,000 tons of US or South American corn for Oct shipment

 

Vietnam seeks soymeal for June shipment

 

Japan seeks 108,789 tons of food wheat for May-Sept shipment . Breakdown

  • 29,670 tons of US hard red winter wheat
  • 21,749 tons of US dark northern spring wheat
  • 25,130 tons of Canada western red spring wheat
  • 32,240 tons of Australian white wheat

 

South Korea bought 19,521 tons of rice from the US and Vietnam for July-Sept shipment

 

Iraq canceled tender for 50K optional origin wheat due to high prices.

 

Argentine president asked Congress yesterday to eliminate some of the taxes paid by biodiesel manufacturers in a bid to support an industry hard hit by European Union anti-dumping measures (Reuters)

 

Safras e Mercado weekly report from Friday

  • As of April 17th 90% of the Brazilian bean crop has been harvested vs. 86% a year ago and vs. 86% average
  • Estimated total South American bean crop at 157.38 MMT vs. previous estimate of 161.93 MMT and vs. 145.639 MMT a year ago
  • Estimated Brazil bean crop at 86.924 MMT vs. 82.125 MMT a year ago
  • Estimated Argentine bean crop at 54.5 MMT vs. 49.1 MMT a year ago
  • Estimate Paraguay’s bean crop at 9.3 MMT vs. 8.202 MMT a year ago
  • Estimated Bolivia’s bean crop at 2.904 MMT vs. 2.634 MMT a year ago
  • Estimated Uruguay’s bean  crop at 3.75 MMT vs. 3.578 MMT a year ago
  • Said Brazil’s summer corn crop is 76% harvested vs. 70% a year ago
  • Estimated Brazil’s winter corn crop at 42.250 MMT vs. 45.2 MMT a year ago
  • Estimated Brazil’s total corn crop at 71.156 MMT vs. 82.070 MMT a year ago

 

Japan’s use of corn in animal feed in February was 46% vs. 45.7% a month ago and vs. 42.3% a year ago

 

Indonesia Palm Oil Association said Indonesia exported 1.78 MMT of palm oil in March vs. 1.58 MMT in February

 

Indonesia Palm Oil Association said Indonesia exported 4.93 MMT of palm oil between Jan – March vs. 5.67 MMT a year ago

 

Indonesia Palm Oil Association estimated 2014 palm oil production at 28.0 MMT

 

Indonesia Palm Oil Association estimated 2014 palm oil exports at 21.0 MMT

 

Canada’s canola crushers crushed 136,086 tons of canola in the week ending April 16th down 2.7% from a week ago (Canadian Oilseed Processors Association)

 

Canada’s canola crush capacity utilization for the week ending April 16th at 76.3% vs. 87.5% a year ago (Canadian Oilseed Processors Association)

 

Canada’s bean crushers crushed 29,634 tons of beans in the week ending April 16th up 3.5% from a week ago (Canadian Oilseed Processors Association)

 

Canada’s bean crush capacity utilization for the week ending April 16th at 45.0% vs. 50.6% a year ago  (Canadian Oilseed Processors Association)

 

Egypt’s state newspaper estimated Egypt’s 2014 local wheat crop at 9.0 MMT vs. Egypt’s Ag Minister estimate of 9.5 MMT

 

Based on a Reuters survey they estimated Egypt’s 2014  wheat crop at 7.0 MMT unchanged from 2013 crop

 

Cool temps and rains in forecast Wednesday and Thursday and then Sunday and Monday in the US Midwest

 

Cooler temps in US Plains this weekend and early next week, some rains in forecast but might miss most needed areas

 

Argentina dry

 

Australia dry

 

Weekly US export inspections report from yesterday

  • Wheat at 495,250 tons (expecting 463-702K)
  • Corn at 1,599,288 tons (expecting 1.194 -1.550 MMT)
  • Beans at 138,777 tons (expecting 136-310K)

 

Open outcry option players from yesterday

 

Corn:

Rosenthal sold 1000 Z 500-600 call spreads/bot 290 CZ

Bache sold 6000 M 470 puts – open interest this morning is 7,081 open , up 6,203 contracts

Bache bot 2000 Z 600 calls

Bache sold 1000 N 490 puts

Macquarie sold 1500 N 540-460 put spreads

ICAP bot 1000 short dated K 500 calls/sold 1000 K 500 calls

ABN sold 900 K 500 calls

 

Beans:

GFI sold 1500 X 1100-1000 put spreads

GFI bot 1000 M 1460-1500 call spreads

Macquarie sold 1000 N 1470-1400 put spreads/sold 200 SN

FI bot 900 M 1500 calls/sold 900 K 1500 calls

GFI sold 500 N 1500 puts

ABN sold 500 N 1400 puts

RJO sold 500 N 1400 puts/sold 125 SN

JPM sold 400 N 1400-1350 put spreads

ADM bot 400 X 1200-1000 put spreads/sold 400 X 1300 calls

 

Wheat:

FCS sold 1000 KCK 735 puts

RJO sold 700 K 675 puts

ADM bot 700 U 690 puts

JPM bot 500 M 650-620 put spreads

ICAP sold 500 K 660 puts

 

Meal:

ICAP sold 400 N 450 puts/bot 400 N 500 calls

Bunge bot 1000 K 480-470 put spreads

 

Estimated fund activity from yesterday

  • Wheat sold 8K
  • Corn sold 8K
  • Beans sold 6K
  • Meal sold 1K
  • Bean oil sold 2K

 

Weekly US Crop Progress report from yesterday

 

Corn

  • Planting 6% (expecting 8-12%) vs. 3% a week ago vs. 4% a year ago and vs. 14% average
  • Planting by state
    • CO 2% vs. 6% average
    • IL 5% vs. 22% average
    • IN 1% vs. 14% average
    • IA 2% vs. 11% average
    • KA 21% vs. 18% average
    • KY 10% vs. 30% average
    • MI 0% vs. 5% average
    • MN 0 vs. 9% average
    • MO 26% vs. 29% average
    • NE 4% vs. 6% average
    • NC 43% vs. 58% average
    • ND 0% vs. 3% average
    • OH 0% vs. 10% average
    • PA 0% vs. 5% average
    • SD 1% vs. 3% average
    • TN 19% vs. 44% average
    • TX 60% vs. 60% average
    • WI 0% vs. 3% average

 

Spring wheat

  • Planting 10% vs. 7% a year ago vs. 19% average

 

Winter wheat

  • Headed 9% vs. 5% a week ago and vs. 17% average
  • Condition 34% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago (as expected)
  • Condition poor to very poor 33% up 1% from a week ago
  • Condition by state
    • MI good to excellent down 7% from a week ago
    • OK good to excellent down 3% from a week ago
    • KS good to excellent down 2% from a week ago
    • CA good to excellent up 5% from a week ago
    • IL good to excellent up 4% from a week ago
    • NC good to excellent up 4% from a week ago
    • MT good to excellent up 3% from a week ago
    • MO good to excellent up 2% from a week ago
    • AR good to excellent up 2% from a week ago

 

Bean planting by state

  • LA 33% vs. 19% a year ago and vs. 26% average
  • MS 14% vs. 7% a year ago and vs. 26% average
  • TX 21% vs. 43% a year ago and vs. 52% average
  • AR 7% vs. 4% a year ago and vs. 13% average
  • AL 3% vs. 1% a year ago and vs. 2% average

 

Rice

  • Planted 32% vs. 25% a week ago and vs. 44% average
  • Emerged 16% vs. 9% a week ago and vs. 24% average

 

Cotton

  • Planted 9% vs. 8% a week ago and vs. 12% average

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,401,420 open, down 10,141
  • Total beans 669,506 open, down 2,798
  • Total meal 327,103 open, down 3,760
  • Total bean oil 331,187 open, down 2,765
  • Total wheat 367,352 open, down 4,155
  • Total KC wheat 144,651 open, down 2,058

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • Weekly DOE #s come out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • HSBC China’s April flash mfg PMI comes out tonight
  • Stats Canada comes out on Thursday at 730 am CST with their planting intentions report
  • SGS and Intertek estimate Malaysia’s April 1-25th palm oil estimates on Friday.
  • May options expire Friday April 25th
  • Wheat crop tour next week in US Plains
  • FOMC 2 day policy meeting Tuesday and Wednesday April 29th and 30th
  • EIA to release January biodiesel report on April 29th

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE