News From The Grain Floor

I, not events, have the power to make me happy or unhappy today. I can choose which it shall be. Yesterday is dead, tomorrow hasn’t arrived yet. I have just one day, today, and I’m going to be happy in it.

Groucho Marx

 

USDA announced 125,000 tons of corn sold to South Korea for ‘13/14 shipment

 

Overnight closes

  • SN down ¾ at 1508
  • CN down a ½ at 503
  • WN up 7 ¾ at 703
  • KC WN up 8 ¼ at 769
  • MWN up 8 ¼ at 743 ¼
  • SMN down 1.30 at 478.50
  • BON down 4 at 4389
  • RRN up 4 at 1553

 

Overnight volume

  • SN 20,332
  • CN 25,464
  • WN 6,764
  • KC WN 740
  • MWN 693
  • SMN 5,406
  • BON 9,623
  • RRN 25

 

Opening calls

  • Beans steady mixed
  • Corn steady mixed
  • Wheat 6-8 higher
  • KC wheat 5-7 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 5-7 higher
  • Meal .50-1.50 lower
  • Bean oil steady to 10 lower
  • Rice  3-5 higher

 

Dollar, gold and silver lower . Crude and stock market higher

 

Nikkei down .001%

Hang Seng up .283%

Shanghai Index down .299%

 

Weekly US jobless claims came out today at +2K to 304K expecting 315K

 

China grain closings – beans up 10, corn up 1, meal up 39, palm up 76, and bean oil up 74

 

Palm oil down 36

 

Reports continue of problems with bean trade with China . There has been talk/reports of Chinese crushers talking about holding a meeting that will discuss the default of 30-40 soybean cargoes. There are 15 Brazilian bean boats to China that will not have letters of credit

 

Hearing China bought a few Brazilian bean cargos this week for June /July shipment

 

Rosario brokerage house reported that the Argentine Ag Min estimated ‘13/14 wheat crop at 9.5 MMT vs. ‘12/13 wheat crop of 8.2 MMT , ‘13/14 corn crop estimated at 23.5 MMT vs. ‘12/13 crop of 27.0 MMT, ‘13/14 bean crop estimated at 54.5 MMT vs. ‘12/13 crop of 48.5 MMT

 

Rosario brokerage house reported that the Argentine Ag Min said as of April 9th , Argentina has sold 46.66% of their ‘13/14 wheat crop vs. 82.70% a year ago , Argentina has sold 25.10% of their ‘13/14 corn crop vs. 56.90% a year ago, and Argentine has sold 20.07% of their ‘13/14 bean crop vs. 25.30% a year ago

 

Rosario port workers started a wage strike today.

 

Toepfer estimated 2014 German wheat crop at 23.94 MMT vs. 24.87 MMT a year ago

 

Toepfer estimated 2014 German rapeseed crop at 5.43 MMT vs. 5.76 MMT a year ago

 

German Farm Coop Association estimated 2014 German wheat crop at 24.74 MMT

 

German Farm Coop Association estimated 2014 German rapeseed crop at 5.54 MMT

 

44 bean receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon

  • 11 out of Cargill Lacon IL
  • 11 out of ADM Henry IL
  • 22 out of ADM Hennepin IL

 

132 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon of Bunge Danville IL

 

Weekly US export sales report came out this morning

  • Wheat – ‘13/14  438,000   ‘14/15 359,900   (expecting ‘13/14 = 50-250,000 ; ‘14/15 = 225-375,000 tons)
  • Corn – ‘13/14 601,900    ‘14/15 192,600  (expecting ‘13/14 = 550-850,000; ‘14/15 = 0-150,000 tons)
  • Beans – ‘13/14 19,200  ’14 15 400,700  (expecting ‘13/14 = – 100,000 – +100,000 ; ‘14/15 = 175-350,000 tons )
  • Meal – ‘13/14 36,600   ‘14/15  84,000 (expecting ‘13/14 = 100 – 200,000 ; ‘14/15 50-100,000 tons)
  • Bean oil – ‘13/14 5,500 ‘14/15  0 (expecting ‘13/14 = 0-50,000 ; ‘14/15 0-10,000 tons)

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat –  Net sales of 438,000 metric tons for delivery during the 2013/2014 marketing year were up noticeably from the previous week and 48 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases for Brazil (85,000 MT, including 50,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Peru (64,600 MT), Egypt (63,000 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from Nigeria), Mexico (63,000 MT), Malaysia (41,600 MT, including 38,100 MT switched from unknown destinations), unknown destinations (34,500 MT), and Japan (29,500 MT), were partially offset by decreases for Nigeria (50,000 MT).  Net sales of 359,900 MT for 2014/2015 were primarily for unknown destinations (211,600 MT), Indonesia (40,000 MT), Mexico (37,000 MT), and Malaysia (20,000 MT).  Exports of 556,300 MT were unchanged from the previous week, but up 9 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were Japan (96,900 MT), Mexico (76,600 MT), Egypt (63,000 MT), Brazil (55,000 MT), the Philippines (44,700 MT), and Malaysia (41,600 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 601,900 MT for 2013/2014 were down 9 percent from the previous week and 36 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were reported for Japan (161,000 MT, including 115,300 MT switched from unknown destinations, 53,000 MT switched from China, and decreases of 168,200 MT), Israel (120,000 MT, including 55,000 MT switched from China), South Korea (119,800 MT), Taiwan (106,700 MT, including 57,600 MT switched from China), Costa Rica (94,400 MT), Mexico (80,500 MT), and Saudi Arabia (73,800 MT, switched from unknown destinations).  Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (268,400 MT) and China (168,000 MT).  Net sales of 192,600 MT for 2014/2015 were reported for Japan (141,800 MT) and unknown destinations (50,800 MT).  Exports of 1,111,000 MT were down 9 percent from the previous week and 7 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were Japan (374,800 MT), Mexico (229,300 MT), Colombia (80,700 MT), Egypt (74,800 MT), Saudi Arabia (73,800 MT), Taiwan (69,500 MT), and Venezuela (55,000 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 19,200 MT for 2013/2014 were down 76 percent from the previous week and 79 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases reported for Indonesia (58,000 MT, including 53,500 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,000 MT), Japan (34,900 MT, including 20,700 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 4,700 MT), Taiwan (15,800 MT), Egypt (13,100 MT, including 9,000 MT switched from Turkey), and Mexico (11,700 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (68,200 MT), China (54,700 MT), and Turkey (9,000 MT).  Net sales of 400,700 MT for 2014/2015 were for unknown destinations (330,000 MT), China (60,000 MT), Mexico (8,000 MT), and Canada (2,700 MT).  Exports of 339,200 MT were down 52 percent from the previous week and 58 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were Indonesia (133,700 MT), China (66,700 MT), Egypt (40,100 MT), Mexico (32,500 MT), Japan (28,300 MT), and Taiwan (14,700 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 36,600 MT for 2013/2014 were down 80 percent from the previous week and 84 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases were reported for Venezuela (40,000 MT, switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (23,300 MT), Honduras (12,200 MT, including 10,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 100 MT), Panama (11,100 MT, including 9,300 MT switched from unknown destinations), Japan (9,600 MT, including 9,100 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Egypt (9,200 MT, including 9,000 MT switched from unknown destinations).  Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (84,500 MT) and the Philippines (19,500 MT).  Net sales of 84,000 MT for 2014/2015 were reported for unknown destinations (80,000 MT) and Mexico (4,000 MT).  Exports of 165,900 MT were down 38 percent from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were Mexico (29,800 MT), Ecuador (26,700 MT), Canada (19,300 MT), the Dominican Republic (17,400 MT), Colombia (10,800 MT), and Honduras (10,700 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 5,500 MT for 2013/2014 were up 63 percent from the previous week and 40 percent from the prior 4-week average.  Increases reported for Mexico (4,400 MT), Venezuela (1,500 MT), the Dominican Republic (200 MT), and Trinidad (100 MT), were partially offset by decreases for Canada (800 MT).  Exports of 10,100 MT were down 81 percent from the previous week and 50 percent from the prior 4-week average.  The primary destinations were Mexico (4,700 MT), the Dominican Republic (4,000 MT), Canada (1,200 MT), and Trinidad (100 MT).

 

Estimated fund activity from yesterday

  • Wheat sold 5K
  • Corn sold 7K
  • Beans bought 6K
  • Meal bought 2K
  • Bean oil bought 4K

 

Open outcry option players from yesterday

Corn:

FI bot 2000 short dated U 450-425 put spreads

JPM bot 500 Z 490 calls

ABN bot 500 M 480 puts/sold 500 M 540 calls

 

Beans:

Man bot 1500 X 1200-1160 put spreads

FI bot 1300 N 1400 puts/bot 286 SN

ABN sold 1000 N 1400 puts

ABN bot 600 K 1480 puts

GFI bot 600 N 1500-1460 put spreads

Rosenthal sold 500 K 1500-1530 call spreads

Rosenthal sold 500 N/X 300 cso calls

Tenco bot 500 X 1000/1060/1100/1160 put condors

Newedge sold 400 X 1220-1320 call spreads

ADM sold 400 X 1340 calls/1140 put strangles

FI bot 500 X 1200-1160 put spreads

 

Wheat:

Tenco bot 1000 K 800 calls

ABN bot 1000 N 660-640 put spreads

ICAP sold 1500 N 690 puts

ICAP sold 600 N 700 puts

FI bot 1500 N 700 puts

Rosenthal sold 500 KWN 730-700 put spreads

 

Oil:

Rosenthal sold 800 N 42 calls

Rosenthal sold 500 K 42 calls

Rosenthal bot 460 M 43 ½-42 put spreads

Newedge bot 300 N 42 calls/sold 300 Z 45 ½ call-38 ½ put strangles

Newedge bot 300 N 42 ½ calls/sold 200 Z 45 ½ call-38 ½ put strangles

Newedge bot 300 N 41 calls/sold 300 U 45 ½ calls-40 put strangles

Newedge bot 300 M 43 calls/sold 300 Z 45 ½ calls-38 ½ put strangles

Newedge bot 400 N 38 ½ puts

 

Meal:

RJO sold 250 N 450 puts

FI bot 300 N 450-430 put spreads

Newedge bot 200 K 460 calls

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,408,425 open, down 3,978
  • Total beans 672,720 open, up 2,924
  • Total meal 330,636 open, down 6,969
  • Total bean oil 338,410 open, down 898
  • Total wheat 371,267 open, up 667
  • Total KC wheat 148,001 open, up 2,278

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST expecting +35 BCF
  • Markets will be closed tomorrow for Good Friday holiday  . See attachment for trading schedule.
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will put out their Malaysian April 1-20th palm oil export estimates on Monday
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • Weekly COT report will come out on Monday at 230 pm CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CST
  • Tuesday April 22nd China’s HSBC April flash mfg PMI comes out
  • May options expire Friday April 25th
  • FOMC 2 day policy meeting Tuesday and Wednesday April 29th and 30th
  • EIA to release January biodiesel report on April 29th

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE