News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

You have brains in your head. You have feet in your shoes. You can steer yourself in any direction you choose. You’re on your own, and you know what you know. And you are the guy who’ll decide where to go.

Dr. Seuss

 

NOPA March crush report comes out today at 11 am CST . Based on a Reuters survey, expecting

  • Crush – average estimate 146.1 MB (biggest March crush in four years) , range of estimates are 140.0-153.0 MB. In February 2014 crush was 141.612 MB. In March 2013 crush was 137.080 MB
  • Bean oil stocks – average estimate 1.917 billion lbs. , range of estimates are 1.798-2.025 billion. In February 2014 bean oil stocks were 1.893 billion and in March 2013 bean oil stocks were 2.765 billion.
  • Meal exports – no estimate is given for meal exports. In February 2014 meal exports were 714,231 tons and in March 2013 meal exports were 638,327 tons

 

Overnight closes (CME)

  • SK up 8 ¼ at 1484 ½
  • CK down 3 ¼ at 499 ¾
  • WK down ¾ at 678 ¼
  • KC WK down 2 ½ at 739 ½
  • MWK down ¾ at 716 ½
  • SMK up 4.80 at 483.90
  • BOK down 4 at 4217
  • RRK up 5 at 1547

 

Overnight volume (CME)

  • SK 8,773
  • CK 7,379
  • WK 5,468
  • KC WK 639
  • MWK 32
  • SMK 4,819
  • BOK 5,097
  • RRK 47

 

Opening calls (CME)

  • Beans
  • Corn
  • Wheat
  • KC wheat
  • Minneapolis wheat
  • Meal
  • Bean oil
  • Rice

 

Dollar and stock market higher. Crude, gold, and silver lower

 

Nikkei up .623%

Hang Seng down 1.595%

Shanghai Index down 1.409%

 

Unrest in Ukraine continues.

 

Palm oil up 30

 

China grain closings – beans up 61, corn up 4, meal up 10, palm oil down 16, bean oil down 24

 

Malaysia to leave May palm oil export tax unchanged from April tax of 5.5%

 

Surveyor SGS estimated Malaysia’s April 1-15th palm oil exports at 500,057 tons up 6.7% from a month ago

 

Surveyor Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia’s April 1-15th palm oil exports at 521,847 tons up 8.6% from a month ago

 

Philippines bought 120,000 tons of US or South American soymeal for Aug-Sept shipment

 

Philippines canceled tender for 134,500 optional origin feed wheat for May-Sept shipment

 

South Korea FLC bought 53,000 tons of optional origin feed wheat for September shipment

 

Japan seeks 136,261 tons of food wheat for May – Sept shipment. Breakdown

  • 28,021 tons of US western white wheat
  • 30,300 tons of US dark northern spring wheat
  • 48,350 tons of Canada western red spring wheat
  • 29,590 tons of Australian white wheat

 

Maltese seek 6,000 tons of optional origin corn for May shipment

 

Reuters article – talk that Brazil corn exports may be delayed into the summer .

 

Hearing there are 2 bean boats in Brazil’s lineup headed to the US

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘13/14 Brazilian bean crop at 86.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘13/14 Brazilian corn crop at 70.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate – He said he could raise this estimate

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘13/14 Argentine bean crop at 53.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 54.0 MMT

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘13/14 Argentine corn crop at 23.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Ukraine state stats service said Ukraine’s April 1st grain stocks at 12.3 MMT up 14% from a year ago

 

Russia’s Ag Min said as of April 14th Russia has planted spring grains on 2.1 MH (6.4% of total area) vs. 1.3 MH a year ago

 

Midwest weather – cold , rain ,and snow early this week , more rain in forecast later this week, 6-10 day warmer and drier

 

Hard freeze in Kansas, northwest Oklahoma , and Texas Panhandle early today

 

Dryness concerns in north west Ukraine

 

Argentina dry next 5-7 days , good for harvest and winter wheat planting

 

May Minneapolis wheat 200 day moving average is 714 ½

 

May bean oil 200 day moving average is 4194

 

Chinese industry analysts – Weekly Chinese crush breakdown (Chinese newsletter)

  • For the week April 5 – 11th total crush volume at 1,294,050 tons down 7.96% from a week ago
  • For the week April 5-11th total crush capacity utilization at 45.40% down 3.92% from a week ago
  • Total ‘13/14 crush volume (Oct 1, 2013 – April 11, 2014) at 36,428,338 tons up 19.36% from a year ago
  • Total 2014 crush volume (Jan 1 – April 11, 2014) at 17,880,541 tons up 15.90% from a year ago
  • As of April 11 total imported bean stocks at 5.438 MMT up 110,850 tons from a week ago and up 33.53% from a year ago
  • Estimated April bean imports at 6.484 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated May bean imports at 5.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.6 MMT
  • Estimated June bean imports at 5.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.7 MMT
  • Estimated July bean imports at 5.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.0-5.2 MMT
  • Said China could default on 30+ vessels (2.0 MMT)

 

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday afternoon

 

Winter wheat

  • Condition 34% good to excellent down 1% a week ago and vs. 36% a year ago (Reuters poll expecting 1-2% higher or lower than a week ago , other analysts expecting steady to 2% lower from a week ago )
    • KS wheat conditions down 3% from a week ago
    • OK wheat conditions down 1% from a week ago
    • WA wheat conditions down 4% from a week ago
    • ID wheat conditions up 10%
    • IL up 3%
    • NE up 3%
    • AR up 3%
    • OR up 3%
    • OH up 2%
    • SD up 2%
  • Condition 32% poor to very poor vs. 29% a week ago and vs. 31% a year ago
  • Headed 5% vs. 4% a year ago

 

Spring wheat

  • Planted 6% complete vs. 5% a year ago

 

Corn

  • Planted 3% vs. 2% a week ago and vs. 6% five year average (Reuters poll expecting 1-5% complete , other analysts expecting 3-6% complete)
  • Corn planting by state
    • LA 94% vs. 91% a week ago vs. 100% a year ago and vs. 98% average
    • MS 56% vs. 41% a week ago vs. 53% a year ago and vs. 77% average
    • TX 57% vs. 54% a week ago vs. 56% a year ago and vs. 55% average
    • GA 76% vs. 59% a week ago vs. 68% a year ago and vs. 76% average
    • OK 30% vs. 19% a year ago and vs. 30% average
    • NC 20% vs. 25% a year ago and vs. 31% average
    • SC 35% vs. 51% a year ago and vs. 68% average
    • KS 11% vs. 4% a week ago vs. 3% a year ago and vs. 9% average
    • MO 9% vs. 2% a week ago vs. 7% a year ago and vs. 16% average
    • TN 7% vs. 2% a week ago vs. 10% a year ago and vs. 25% average
    • KY 4% vs. 6% a year ago and vs. 17% average
    • IL 1% vs. 1% a year ago and vs. 10% average
    • IN 0% vs. 5% average
    • IA 0%
    • OH 0% vs. 2% average

 

Rice

  • Planted 25% vs. 15% a week ago and vs. 31% five year average
  • Emerged 9% vs. 12% a year ago and vs. 12% five year average

 

Cotton

  • Planted 8% vs. 6% a week ago and vs. 9% five year average

 

Soybean planting by state

  • AR 4% vs. 1% a year ago vs. 8% average
  • LA 13% vs. 11% a year ago and vs. 15% average
  • MS 6% vs. 4% a year ago and vs. 15% average
  • TX 16% vs. 38% a year ago and vs. 40% average

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,422,557 open, up 4,313
  • Total beans 661,860 open, up 7,971
  • Total meal 323,544 open, down 1,590
  • Total bean oil 334,914 open, down 3,763
  • Total wheat 375,433 open, down 7,331
  • Total KC wheat 144,988 open, down 657

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • China’s 1st quarter GDP comes out tonight expecting +7.3% vs. 4th quarter of +7.7%
  • July beans, corn, wheat, KC wheat, meal , and bean oil goes top step (spot month) tomorrow
  • Weekly DOE #s come out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Markets will be closed on Friday for Good Friday holiday  . See attachment for trading schedule.
  • Tuesday April 22nd China’s HSBC April flash mfg PMI comes out
  • May options expire Friday April 25th
  • FOMC 2 day policy meeting Tuesday and Wednesday April 29th and 30th
  • EIA to release January biodiesel report on April 29th

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE