News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

Civilization began the first time an angry person cast a word instead of a rock.

Sigmund Freud

 

No USDA announcements this morning

 

Overnight closes (CME)

  • SK up 3 ¾ at 1466 ¾
  • CK up 3 ½ at 502
  • WK up 14 ¼ at 674 ½
  • KC WK up 17 ¾ at 737 ¼
  • MWK up 12 ¼  at 714
  • SMK up .90 at 473.80
  • BOK up 5 at 4215
  • RRK down 8.5 at 1557

 

Overnight volume (CME)

  • SK 12,312
  • CK 17,679
  • WK 18,182
  • KC WK 1,481
  • MWK 340
  • SMK 7,516
  • BOK 5,731
  • RRK 109

 

Opening calls (CME)

  • Beans 3-5 higher
  • Corn 3-5 higher
  • Wheat 13-16 higher
  • KC wheat  15-20 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 10-15 higher
  • Meal .50-1.50 higher
  • Bean oil  steady -10 higher
  • Rice 7-10 lower

 

Crude, gold, silver, stock market, and dollar higher

 

Nikkei down .36%

Hang Seng up .15%

Shanghai Index up .05%

 

China grain market closings – beans up 49, corn up 4, meal up 6, palm oil up 36, and bean oil up 10

 

Palm oil up 6

 

Reuters story said there is fresh demand for new crop US beans for Oct-Nov shipment

 

Taiwan bought 92,550 tons of US milling wheat for May June shipment (Reuters)

 

South Korea NOFI bought 193,000 tons of optional origin corn for Sept/Oct shipment (Reuters)

 

South Korea NOFI bought 65,000 tons of optional origin feed wheat for Sept/Oct  (Reuters)

 

Tensions in Ukraine continue. Concerns about lower grain shipments. (DowJones)

 

Agritel said financial problems for Ukraine farmers may reduce 2014 corn and wheat output.  (DowJones)

 

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine has exported 28.338 MMT of grain between July 1 – April 11th vs. 20.0 MMT a year ago (DowJones)

 

Russia Ag Min said Russia has exported 21.488 MMT of grain between July 1 – April 9th up 47.5% from a year ago (DowJones)

 

SovEcon estimated Russia’s ‘13/14 grain exports at 25.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 24.2 MMT (Reuters)

 

SovEcon estimated Russia’s April grain exports at 1.7-1.8 MMT

 

SovEcon said Russia exported 2.04 MMT of grain in March (expecting 1.5 MMT) (Reuters)

 

Goldman Sachs is bearish on grains outlook despite Ukraine tensions – (DowJones )

  • 12 month corn price forecast at $4.00
  • 12 month bean price forecast at $10.50
  • 12 month wheat price forecast at $5.75

 

Xinhua News Network (China) said there is fresh talk that more soybean cargoes have been sold into the US

 

Grain.gov.cn said China palm oil stocks this week in major ports at 1.14 MMT unchanged from a week ago

 

Safras e Mercado said as of Friday Brazilian bean harvest is 86% complete vs. 80% a week ago vs. 82% a year ago and vs. 78% five year average

 

AgRural said Brazilian bean harvest is 85% complete vs. 78% a year ago and vs. 83% 5 year average

 

Indonesia Wheat Flour Mills Association estimated 2014 wheat imports at 7.1 MMT vs. previous estimate of 6.5-6.7 MMT and vs. 6.7 MMT in 2013

 

3 wheat receipts were canceled Friday afternoon out of CIRM , Chicago IL (CME)

 

Less than expected rains over the weekend in Texas , Oklahoma, and Kansas.

 

Rains are needed in Kansas

 

Hard freeze last night/ this morning  in western Kansas

 

Midwest rains , snow , and cold temps slowing field work

 

Big rains in Alabama and Mississippi

 

Rains in southern and eastern Ukraine. Rains needed in northern and western Ukraine.

 

Some risk in Argentina , dry and warmer later this week.

 

May Minneapolis wheat 200 day moving average is 715

 

May bean oil 200 day moving average 4195

 

Index fund roll ended on Friday.

 

Weekly COT supplemental report from Friday. Large spec positions as of April 8th , futures and options combined (CFTC)

  • Wheat long 1,156
  • KC wheat long 16,900
  • Corn long 195,161
  • Beans long 138,509
  • Meal long 35,320
  • Bean oil short 2,200

 

Open interest as of Friday’s close (CME

  • CK 307,555 open, down 45,638
  • CN  457,326 open, up 38,038
  • CZ 377,492 open, up 6,769
  • Total corn 1,418,134 open, up 2,073
  • SK 170,309 open, down 15,116
  • SN 223,632 open, up 18,875
  • SX 188,671 open, down 1,434
  • Total beans 654,420 open, up 4,578
  • SMK 89,129 open, down 10,750
  • SMN 119,165 open, up 10,105
  • Total meal 325,310 open, up 314
  • BOK 86,887 open, down 4,804
  • BON 135,801 open, up 5,507
  • Total bean oil  338,644 open, up 2,358
  • WK 102,192 open, down 7,797
  • WN up 165,149 open, up 9,029
  • Total wheat 383,000 open, up 857
  • KC WK 31,373 open, down 4,655
  • KC WN 69,608 open, up 5,679
  • Total KC wheat 145,652 open, up 1,862

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspection report comes out on today at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CST . Analysts expecting 3-6% of the corn planting to be complete vs. 2% a year ago and vs. 7% average
  • SGS and Intertek come out tomorrow with their Malaysian April 1-15th palm oil export estimates
  • NOPA March crush report comes out tomorrow at 11 am CST . Based on a Reuters survey, expecting
  • Crush – average estimate 146.1 MB (biggest March crush in four years) , range of estimates are 140.0-153.0 MB. In February 2014 crush was 141.612 MB. In March 2013 crush was 137.080 MB
  • Bean oil stocks – average estimate 1.917 billion lbs. , range of estimates are 1.798-2.025 billion. In February 2014 bean oil stocks were 1.893 billion and in March 2013 bean oil stocks were 2.765 billion.
  • Meal exports – no estimate is given for meal exports. In February 2014 meal exports were 714,231 tons and in March 2013 meal exports were 638,327 tons
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • July beans, corn, wheat, KC wheat, meal , and bean oil goes top step (spot month) on Wednesday
  • Markets will be closed on Friday for Good Friday holiday  . See attachment for trading schedule.
  • May options expire Friday April 25th
  • FOMC 2 day policy meeting Tuesday and Wednesday April 29th and 30th
  • EIA to release January biodiesel report on April 29th

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE