News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

“As soon as you start talking about mystique, you have none.”

― Neil Young

 

Overnight closes (CME)

  • SK down 3 ½ at 1491 ¾
  • CK down 1 ¾ at 500 ½
  • WK down ¾ at 668 ¼
  • KC WK down a ¼ at 733
  • MWK up 2 ¼ at 714 ¾
  • SMK up 1.10 at 483.20
  • BOK down 38 at 4253
  • RRK unchanged at 1550.50

 

Overnight volume (CME)

  • SK 12,191
  • CK 13,969
  • WK 13,188
  • KC WK 826
  • MWK 47
  • SMK 5,171
  • BOK 7,976
  • RRK 10

 

Opening calls (CME)

  • Beans 3-5 lower
  • Corn 1-3 lower
  • Wheat steady lower
  • KC wheat steady mixed
  • Minneapolis wheat 2-4 higher
  • Meal .50-1.50 higher
  • Bean oil 35-45 lower
  • Rice steady mixed

 

Crude and stock market lower. Dollar, gold and silver higher

 

Nikkei unchanged

Hang Seng up 1.46%

Shanghai Index up 1.34%

 

Weekly US jobless claims report came out this morning at -32K to 300K expecting 320K

 

Bank of England leaves interest rates unchanged at .5%

 

China grain closings – beans down 6, corn up 1, meal down 19, palm oil down 10, bean oil up 12

 

Palm oil down 6

 

SGS estimated Malaysia’s April 1-10 palm oil exports at 306,625 tons up 3.2% from a month ago

 

Intertek estimated Malaysia’s April 1-10th palm oil exports at 306,765 tons up 4.4% from a month ago

 

China trade data came out late last night .

  • China March exports – 6.6% on year expected +4.2%
  • China March imports – 11.3% on year expected +2.8%
  • China March trade surplus $7.71 B expecting a surplus of $1.75 B
  • China imported 4.62 MMT of beans in March expecting 5.69 MMT
  • China imported 15.4 MMT of beans between Jan – March up 33.5% from a year ago

 

Correction from yesterday’s afternoon email – I wrote Celeres estimated ‘13/14 Brazilian bean crop at 54.9 MMT , I meant 84.9 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 87.5 MM

 

Hearing reports of a Brazilian bean cargo sold into Quebec , Canada.

 

Hearing China was eyeing US new crop beans yesterday

 

Hearing China bought 1-2 cargoes of US soybeans for Oct-Nov shipment

 

Japan bought 119,178 tons of wheat for May-Sept shipment . Breakdown

  • 19,385 tons of US western white wheat
  • 29,080 tons of US hard red winter wheat
  • 22,920 tons of US dark northern spring wheat
  • 47,883 tons of Canadian western red spring wheat

 

South Korea FLC seeks 70K optional origin corn for Sept shipment

 

South Korea FLC seeks 70K optional origin wheat for October shipment

 

Oil World estimated India’s Oct 2013 – March 2014 soybean meal exports at 2.2 MMT vs. 2.9 MMT a year ago

 

Oil World estimated India’s October 2013- March 2014 rapeseed meal exports at 498,000 tons vs. 337,000 tons a year ago

 

Article on Financial Times – Bird flu set to dent China’s demand for beans

 

Report on Reuters – China importers have defaulted on at least 500,000 tons of beans (worth $300 million) from the US and from Brazil , as they struggle to get credit due to losses in processing soybeans . There are 5-6 panamax cargoes which are unable to be unloaded at ports because buyers cannot open letters of credit and there are no letter of credit for an additional 5-6 cargoes floating on the sea. A panamax cargo is 50-60,000 tons of beans

 

Customs data showed China imported 15.35 MMT of beans in the first quarter of 2014 up 33.5% from a year ago

 

Some analysts expect 3rd quarter China soybean imports could fall to below 15 MMT vs. 18.25 MMT in the 3rd quarter of 2013.

 

Argentina is holding a one day general strike today.

 

World Weather reduced weekend rains for US bean and corn planting areas

 

Hearing Chinese crushers will hold a meeting this weekend to discuss over buying in soybeans and how to handle bean cargoes shipped to China without an opened letter of credit

 

Mississippi River traffic may reopen tomorrow after a barge hit a bridge in IA on Wednesday.

 

Today is the fourth day of the index fund roll.

 

May bean oil 200 day moving average is 4199

 

May Minneapolis wheat 200 day moving average is 716 ¼

 

Malaysian Palm Oil Board came out this morning with their March palm oil data.

  • Palm oil stocks at 1.688 MMT , expecting 1.58 MMT (3 year low) vs. February stocks of 1.659 MMT
  • Palm oil exports at 1.24  MMT , expecting 1.30 MMT vs. February exports of 1.35 MMT
  • Palm oil output at 1.497 MMT , expecting 1.39 MMT vs. February output of 1.278 MMT

 

CONAB April Brazilian crop estimate update came out this morning

  • ‘13/14 bean crop at 86.08 MMT vs. previous estimate of 85.44 MMT and vs. USDA estimate of 87.5 MMT
  •  ‘13/14 corn crop at   75.46 MMT vs. previous estimate of 75.18 MMT and vs. USDA estimate of 72.0 MMT
  • 2014 wheat crop at 6.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.5 MMT

 

Weekly US export sales report came out this morning at 730 am CST

  • Wheat – ‘13/14 41,800 tons  ‘14/15 349,100 tons  (expecting old crop 250,000- 375,000 tons ; new crop 150,000-300,000 tons)
  • Corn – ‘13/14 658,700 tons  ‘14/15 58,000 tons (expecting old crop 700,000 – 900,000 tons ; new crop 0-200,000 tons)
  • Beans – ‘13/14 79,100 tons ‘14/15 210,400 tons (expecting old crop 0-150,000 tons ; new crop 100,000 – 300,000 tons)
  • Meal – ‘13/14 179,600 tons   ‘14/15 80,100 tons (expecting old crop 100,000 – 250,000 ; new crop 0-150,000 tons)
  • Bean oil – ‘13/14  3,400  ‘14/15 0  (expecting old crop 0-30,000 ; new crop 0-10,000 tons)

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 41,800 metric tons–a marketing-year low–for delivery during the 2013/2014 marketing year were down 88 percent from the previous week and 90 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases for the Philippines (60,200 MT, including 25,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (43,900 MT), Peru (40,400 MT, including 35,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 20,000 MT), Algeria (29,000 MT), Brazil (25,000 MT), Guatemala (21,900 MT, including 19,100 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Indonesia (21,500 MT, including 17,500 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,400 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (232,000 MT) and Vietnam (6,000 MT). Net sales of 349,100 MT for 2014/2015 were primarily for unknown destinations (241,400 MT), Guatemala (32,100 MT), El Salvador (27,700 MT), and Colombia (18,000 MT). Exports of 553,600 MT were up 6 percent from the previous week and 14 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Nigeria (98,700 MT), Peru (74,400 MT), Mexico (71,800 MT), Thailand (55,300 MT), the Philippines (42,500 MT), and Guatemala (34,000 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 658,700 MT for 2013/2014 were down 31 percent from the previous week and 30 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for South Korea (253,000 MT, including 118,700 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 2,200 MT), Japan (171,600 MT, including 102,900 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 26,800 MT), Colombia (72,900 MT, including 54,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Israel (52,000 MT), Guatemala (48,600 MT, including 21,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Costa Rica (44,300 MT), and Egypt (39,500 MT, including 38,000 MT switched from China). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (83,400 MT), China (58,000 MT), and Brazil (35,000 MT). Net sales of 58,000 MT for 2014/2015 were reported for Japan. Exports of 1,217,400 MT were down 15 percent from the previous week, but up 10 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (365,400 MT), Mexico (250,200 MT), South Korea (177,900 MT), Colombia (96,700 MT), Taiwan (76,900 MT), and Venezuela (64,000 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 79,100 MT for 2013/2014 were up 20 percent from the previous week, but down 8 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases for Mexico (59,000 MT), South Korea (25,300 MT, including 25,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Taiwan (21,300 MT), Japan (18,700 MT, including 13,300 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,500 MT), and Indonesia (18,000 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (114,600 MT). Net sales of 210,400 MT for 2014/2015 were primarily for China (180,000 MT), Indonesia (15,000 MT), and Mexico (10,000 MT). Exports of 700,400 MT were up 6 percent from the previous week, but down 15 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (325,900 MT), Japan (85,600 MT), Mexico (84,000 MT), Egypt (62,500 MT), Indonesia (50,700 MT), and South Korea (25,800 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 179,600 MT for 2013/2014 were down 42 percent from the previous week and 17 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for unknown destinations (70,100 MT), the Philippines (43,000 MT), Guatemala (20,100 MT, including 7,300 MT switched from unknown destinations, 500 MT switched from El Salvador, and decreases of 800 MT), Canada (15,900 MT), Mexico (11,700 MT), and Thailand (5,900 MT). Decreases were reported for Trinidad (16,200 MT). Net sales of 80,100 MT for 2014/2015 were reported for unknown destinations (80,000 MT) and Canada (100 MT). Exports of 265,800 MT were down 32 percent from the previous week, but unchanged from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Thailand (60,900 MT), Mexico (49,600 MT), Vietnam (38,300 MT), Canada (24,500 MT), Venezuela (18,000 MT), and Guatemala (14,600 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 3,400 MT for 2013/2014 were down 46 percent from the previous week and 31 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases for China (40,000 MT, switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (3,000 MT), and Israel (200 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (40,000 MT) and Canada (100 MT). Exports of 52,900 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (40,000 MT), Mexico (5,500 MT), Jamaica (3,500 MT), the Dominican Republic (3,000 MT), and Canada (700 MT).

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close (CME)

  • CK 383,187 open, down 34,039
  • CN 393,266 open, up 27,995
  • Total corn 1,405,699 open, up 8,481
  • SK 199,019 open, down 9,822
  • SN 198,211 open, up 13,464
  • Total beans 651,379 open, up 9,200
  • SMK 108,835 open, down 8,176
  • SMN 100,820 open, up 6,076
  • Total meal 323,327 open, down 432
  • BOK 101,955 open, down 6,989
  • BON 119,502 open, up 7,652
  • Total bean oil 332,481 open, up 2,454
  • WK 122,422 open, down 12,124
  • WN 147,105 open, up 12,502
  • Total wheat 381,934 open, up 4,697
  • KC WK 41,651 open, down 4,732
  • KC WN 60,641 open, up 3,020
  • Total KC wheat 146,089 open, down 94

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST expecting +15 BCF
  • China’s March PPI and CPI comes out Thursday night/ Friday morning .
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST
  • NOPA March crush report comes out on Tuesday April 15th at 11 am CST
  • July beans, corn, wheat, KC wheat, meal , and bean oil goes top step (spot month) on Wednesday April 16th
  • Markets will be closed Friday April 18th for Good Friday holiday

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE