News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

USDA April Supply and Demand and crop progress report comes out today at 11 am CST . Estimates are on the bottom of this email and see the attachment for recap table.

 

No USDA announcements this morning

 

CME electronic trade appears to be back to normal after yesterday’s glitch.

 

Overnight closes

  • SK up 12 ½ 1495
  • CK up a ½ at 507 ½
  • WK up 5 at 686
  • KC WK up 6 ¾ at 748 ¼
  • MWK up 4 ¼ at 727 ½
  • SMK up 3.10 at 481.20
  • BOK up 29 at 4240
  • RRK up 5 at 1562

 

Overnight volume

  • SK 15,580
  • CK 30,187
  • WK 13,703
  • KC WK 1,463
  • MWK 201
  • SMK 6,193
  • BOK 9,049
  • RRK 13

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 10-15 higher
  • Corn steady better
  • Wheat 4-6 higher
  • KC wheat 6-8 higher
  • Meal 2.00-3.00 higher
  • Bean oil 25-35 higher
  • Rice 4-6 higher

 

Gold and silver lower. Crude, stock market , and dollar higher.

 

Nikkei down 2.103%

Hang Seng up 1.090%

Shanghai Index up .329%

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday afternoon

  • Crude a build of 7.1 MB expecting a build of 1.3 MB
  • Gas a draw of 3.6 MB expecting a draw of 700K
  • Distillates a build of 293K expecting a draw of 100K

 

China grain closes – beans up 25, corn down 1, meal up 27, palm oil down 6, bean oil up 46

 

Palm oil up 16

 

China sold 16.29% of wheat at today’s auction . They offered 858,160 tons

 

Philippines bought 120,000 tons of Argentina meal for Aug-Sept shipment

 

South Korea bough one Argentine meal cargo for July shipment

 

Japan seeks 25,970 tons of feed wheat and 41,510 tons of feed barley via SB  tender for July shipment

 

Russian  Ag Min said farmers have planted 1.3 MH  of spring grains as of April 8th vs. 775,300 hectares a year ago

 

Today is the third day of the index fund roll. Roll ends on Friday. They are rolling their long May positions into July

 

May bean oil 200 day moving average 4200

 

Weekly US crop progress report from yesterday afternoon

 

Winter wheat

  • Condition 35% good to excellent vs. 36% good to excellent a year ago   (expecting 30-40% good to excellent) 29% poor to very poor vs. 30% a year ago

 

Rice

  • Planted 15% vs. 16% a year ago and vs. 19% average

 

Cotton

  • 6% planted vs. 5% a year ago and vs. 6% average

 

US should report corn planting progress in next week’s report

 

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

 

USDA April supply and demand and crop progress report comes today at 11 am CST

 

Estimates for today’s Report .

 

US ‘13/14 grain ending stocks estimates

  • Wheat (21 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .583 BB , range of estimates are .553-.625 BB. USDA March estimate was .558 BB
  • Corn (22 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 1.403 BB, range of estimates are 1.306-1.478 BB. USDA March estimate was 1.456 BB
  • Beans (22 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .139 BB, range of estimates are .125-.147 BB. USDA March estimate was .145 BB.

 

World ‘13/14 grain ending stocks estimates

  • Wheat (15 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 183.65 MMT , range of estimates are 182.5-185.3 MMT. USDA March estimate was 183.81 MMT
  • Corn (14 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 157.72 MMT , range of estimates are 156.5-159.16 MMT. USDA March estimate was 158.47 MMT.
  • Beans (15 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 70.14 MMT, range of estimates are 68.5-71.9 MMT. USDA March estimate was 70.64 MMT

 

South American ‘13/14 crop estimates

  • Argentina corn crop (22 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 23.95 MMT, range of estimates are 21.80-25.70 MMT. USDA March estimate was 24.0 MMT
  • Argentina bean crop (22 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 54.15 MMT, range of estimates are 53.0-57.10 MMT. USDA March estimate was 54.0 MMT
  • Brazilian corn crop (22 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 69.66 MMT, range of estimates are 68.0-71.2  MMT. USDA March estimate was 70.0 MMT
  • Brazilian bean crop (22 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 87.43 MMT, range of estimates are 86.5-89.5 MMT. USDA March estimate was 88.50 MMT

 

Data Source: Reuters.

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly DOE energy inventory report comes out today at 930 am CST Expecting
    • Crude a build of 1.4 MB
    • Gas a draw of 1.0 MB
    • Distillates unchanged
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 930 am CST
  • China March trade data report comes out tonight/tomorrow morning
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out tomorrow with their March palm oil data report. Based on a Reuters survey expecting
    • Palm oil stocks expecting 1.58 MMT (3 year low) vs. February stocks of 1.659 MMT
    • Palm oil exports expecting 1.30 MMT vs. February exports of 1.35 MMT
    • Palm oil output expecting 1.39 MMT vs. February output of 1.278 MMT
  • CONAB comes out tomorrow with their monthly Brazilian crop estimates . Previous estimates were
    • ‘13/14 bean crop at 85.44 MMT
    • ‘13/14 bean exports at 45.3 MMT
    • ‘13/14 corn crop at 75.18 MMT
    • 2014 wheat crop at 5.5 MMT
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • China’s March PPI and CPI comes out Thursday night/ Friday morning .

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE