News From The Grain Floor

Alone we can do so little, together we can do so much

Helen Keller

 

Overnight closes (CME)

  • SK up 1 ¾ at 1477
  • CK down 3 ¼ at 496 ¾
  • WK down 9 at 667
  • KC WK down 12 at 732
  • MWK down 10 ¼ at 720 ¼
  • SMK down 1.00 at 479.10
  • BOK up 26 at 4193
  • RRK down .50 at 1569.50

 

Overnight volume (CME)

  • SK 7,964
  • CK 6,592
  • WK 5,486
  • KC WK 791
  • MWK 209
  • SMK 2,837
  • BOK 8,114
  • RRK 10

 

Opening calls (Reuters)

  • Beans steady mixed
  • Corn 2-4 lower
  • Wheat 7-10 lower
  • KC wheat 10-15 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 10-15 lower
  • Meal .50-1.50 lower
  • Bean oil 20-30 higher
  • Rice steady lower

 

Crude, gold, silver, and stock market higher. Dollar lower

 

Nikkei down .5%

Hang Seng down .24%

Shanghai Index up .73%

 

US March unemployment report came out this morning at 730 am CST. (DowJones)

  • March nonfarm payrolls at +192K expecting +200K
  • March unemployment rate at 6.7% expecting 6.6%
  • Feb nonfarm payrolls revised to +197K from +175K

 

Malaysian palm oil up 25.

 

Chinese grain closings – beans up 27, corn up 6, meal up 27, palm oil up 36, bean oil up 60

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange  – weekly Argentine crop progress report (BAGE)

  • Corn harvest is 13% complete vs. 10% a week ago and vs. 24% a year ago
  • Estimated ‘13/14 corn crop at 24.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. ‘12/13 crop of 27.0 MMT
  • Bean harvest is 9.5% complete vs. 3.3% a week ago and vs. 5.8% a year ago
  • Estimated ‘13/14 bean crop at 54.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 48.5 MMT in ‘12/13
  • Sunflower harvest is 85.5% complete  vs. 81.2% a week ago and vs. 89.1% a year ago
  • Estimated ‘13/14 sunflower crop estimated at 2.3 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Oil World estimated 2014 Argentine biodiesel production at 1.8 MMT vs. 2013 production of 2.0 MMT

 

Oil World estimated 2014 Argentine biodiesel exports at 700,000 tons vs. 2013 exports of 1.1 MMT

 

Oil World estimated 2014 Argentine biodiesel domestic use at 1.1 MMT vs. 885,000 tons a year ago

 

Oil World estimated Argentina’s Jan – Feb soybean crush at 3.5 MMT vs. 2.9 MMT a year ago

 

Oil World estimated Argentina’s Jan – Feb sunseed crush at 367,000 tons vs. 608,000 tons a year ago

 

Indonesian Vegetable Oil Association said they expect to see Indonesia’s palm oil refinery capacity expanding to  45 M tons by the end of 2014 vs. 30.7 M in 2013 and vs. 21.3 M in 2012. – Reuters

 

Chinese industry analysts said China’s soymeal stocks are currently at 750,000 tons

 

Analysts said Brazilian farmers are holding on to their corn , waiting for higher prices (Reuters)

 

Indonesia and Malaysia wheat needs are covered through June (Reuters)

 

Philippines seeks 134,500 tons of optional origin feed wheat for May-Sept shipment (Reuters)

 

21 wheat receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of Maumee OH The Andersons (CME)

 

52 new ethanol receipts were registered yesterday afternoon . (CME)

 

52 ethanol deliveries with the date at 4/01/14 (CME)

 

Minneapolis May wheat 200 day moving average at 718 (barchart.com)

 

May bean oil 200 day moving average at 4207 (barchart.com)

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close (CME)

  • Total corn 1,386,904 open, up 15,498
  • Total beans 641,725 open, up 4,192
  • Total meal 319,774 open, up 2,337
  • Total bean oil 326,878 open, up 2,896
  • Total wheat 375,544 open, up 2,356
  • Total KC wheat 148,395 open, down 351

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • Index fund roll begins Monday. The roll lasts for 5 days. They will be rolling their long May positions into July .
  • Weekly USDA crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CST
  • USDA supply and demand and crop production report comes out on Wednesday at 11 am CST
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board comes out on Thursday with their March palm oil data report. Based on a Reuters survey expecting
    • Palm oil stocks expecting 1.58 MMT (3 year low) vs. February stocks of 1.659 MMT
    • Palm oil exports expecting 1.30 MMT vs. February exports of 1.35 MMT
    • Palm oil output expecting 1.39 MMT vs. February output of 1.278 MMT
  • CONAB comes out on Thursday with their monthly Brazilian crop estimates . Previous estimates were
    • ‘13/14 bean crop at 85.44 MMT
    • ‘13/14 bean exports at 45.3 MMT
    • ‘13/14 corn crop at 75.18 MMT
    • 2014 wheat crop at 5.5 MMT

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE