News From The Grain Floor

The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and  you are the easiest person to fool

–          Richard P. Feynman

 

Today is the beginning of a new month and a new quarter.

 

No USDA announcements this morning

 

Overnight closes

  • SK up 11 ¾ at 1475 ¾  – new contract highs overnight of 1481 ¾
  • CK up 4 at 506
  • WK down 5 ½ at 691 ¾
  • KC WK down 5 ½ at 758 ½
  • MWK down 4 ½ at 738 ¼
  • SMK up 4.40 at 482.20 – new contract highs overnight of 485.30
  • BOK up 22 at 4064
  • RRK down 7 at 1553

 

Overnight volume

  • SK 14,049
  • CK 18,625
  • WK 9,554
  • KC WK 894
  • MWK 246
  • SMK 5,636
  • BOK 9,082
  • RRK 10

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 8-13 higher
  • Corn 3-5 higher
  • Wheat 4-6 lower
  • KC wheat 5-7 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 4-6 lower
  • Meal 4-5 higher
  • Bean oil 20-25 higher
  • Rice  6-8 lower

 

Gold, silver, and stock market higher. Dollar and crude oil lower.

 

Nikkei down .24%

Hang Seng up 1.31%

Shanghai Index up .69%

 

Final March mfg PMIs (DowJones)

  • French at 52.1 expecting 51.9 and vs. Feb of 49.7
  • German at 53.7 expecting 53.8 and vs. Feb of 54.8
  • Eurozone at 53.0 as expected and vs. Feb of 53.2
  • UK at 55.3 expecting 56.7 and vs. Feb of 56.2
  • China’s official at 50.3 vs. 50.2 in Feb
  • China’s HSBC at 48.0 vs. 48.5 in Feb

 

Malaysian palm oil down 23.

 

China grain closings – beans up 36, corn unchanged, meal up 102, bean oil down 20, and palm oil down 10.

 

Taiwan Sugar Corp bought 20,000 tons of US corn and 15,000 tons of US beans for May/June shipment

 

Article on Bloomberg – US to import 5.3 million gallons ethanol from Brazil after US prices rally 81% this year.

 

US Wheat Associates said Indonesia ‘13/14 US wheat imports may reach 1 MMT vs. 534,000 tons in ‘12/13

 

IMEA estimated Mato Grosso Brazil ‘13/14 corn crop at 15.23 MMT vs. previous estimate of 17.04 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 crop of 22.54 MMT

 

IMEA estimated Mato Grosso ‘13/14 corn area at 2.97 MH vs. previous estimate of 3.7 MH

 

Kazakhstan Ag Min said Kazakhstan has exported 6.78 MMT of grain by rail between July 1st and March 30th vs. 5.24 MMT a year ago

 

South Korea Ag Min estimated 2014 rice production at 4.15 MMT down 2% from 2013.

 

Rains in Kansas forecast for tonight

 

May bean oil 50 day moving average is 4053

 

May bean oil 100 day moving average is 4044

 

Today is the last day of the Rogers roll.

 

Chinese industry analysts – Weekly Chinese crush breakdown (from Chinese newsletter)

  • For the week March 22nd – March 28th total crush volume at 1,398,400 tons up 16.32% from a week ago
  • For the week March 22 -28 total crush capacity utilization at 49.06% up 6.97% from a week ago
  • Total ‘13/14 (Oct 1, 2013- March 28, 2014) crush volume at 33,728,288 tons up 19.03% from a year ago
  • Total 2014 (Jan 1 – March 28, 2014) crush volume at 15,180,491 tons up 14.63% from a year ago
  • As of March 28th total imported bean stocks at 5.229 M tons down 61,500 tons from a week ago and up 22.48% from a year ago
  • Estimated March bean imports at 5.1191 MMT
  • Estimated April bean imports at 6.5 MMT
  • Estimated May bean imports at 5.8 MMT
  • Estimated June bean imports at 5.3 MMT

 

Weekly US crop progress report by state- from yesterday afternoon  (from NASS website) .

  • Texas corn planting is 28% complete vs. 20% a week ago vs. 53% a year ago and vs. 48% 5 year average
  • Texas wheat crop 11% good to excellent down 2% from a week ago
  • Texas wheat crop 59% poor to very poor up 7% from a week ago
  • Kansas wheat crop 32% good to excellent down 1% from a week ago
  • Kansas wheat crop 25% poor to very poor up 4% from a week ago
  • Kansas corn planting 1% complete vs. 0% a year ago and vs. 1% average
  • Oklahoma wheat crop 17% good to excellent unchanged from a week ago
  • Oklahoma wheat crop 44% poor to very poor up 2% from a week ago
  • Oklahoma wheat crop 17% good to excellent down 1% from a week ago
  • NASS said 95% of Oklahoma still remains in drought
  • Louisiana corn planting 75% complete vs. 94% a year ago and vs. 84% average
  • Mississippi corn planting 30% complete vs. 43% a year ago and vs. 47% average

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close (CME)

  • Total corn 1,341,961 open, up 2,393
  • Total beans 635,842 open, up 6,841
  • Total meal 315,697 open, up 4,382
  • Total bean oil 312,815 open, up 2,113
  • Total wheat 365,956 open, up 4,314
  • Total KC wheat 147,327 open , up 1,041

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • Weekly DOE #s come out tomorrow at 930 am CST. Expecting
    • Crude a build of 1.3 MB
    • Gas a draw of 1.47 MB
    • Distillates a draw of 71,500
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • China to auction 300,000 tons of rapeseed oil from reserves this week
  • US March unemployment report comes out on Friday at 730 am CST
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins April 7th. Goldman Sachs roll lasts for 5 days. They will be rolling their long May positions forward.
  • Weekly US crop progress reports start again Monday April 7th at 3 pm CST
  • USDA supply and demand and crop production report comes out on April 9th

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE