News From The Grain Floor

One of the beautiful things about baseball is that every once in a while you come into a situation where you want to, and where you have to, reach down and prove something.

Nolan Ryan

 

USDA prospective plantings and quarterly stocks report comes out today at 11 am CST (see below for estimates)

 

Today is month end and end of the quarter

 

No USDA announcements this morning

 

Overnight closes

  • SK down 1 at 1435 ½
  • CK down 5 ¾ at 486 ¼
  • WK down 6 at 689 ½
  • KC WK down 4 at 759 ½
  • MWK down 4 ½ at 735
  • SMK down .60 at 467.80
  • BOK up 5 at 4053
  • RRK down 2 at 1549

 

Overnight volume

  • SK 5,445
  • CK 10,505
  • WK 7,546
  • KC WK 738
  • MWK 175
  • SMK 2,117
  • BOK 6,249
  • RRK 13

 

Opening calls – Reuters

  • Beans steady mixed
  • Corn 5-7 lower
  • Wheat 5-7 lower
  • KC wheat 3-5 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 3-5 lower
  • Meal .50-1.00 lower
  • Bean oil steady better
  • Rice 1-3 lower

 

Dollar, gold, and crude lower. Stock market and silver higher.

 

Shanghai Index down .42%

Hang Seng up .38%

Nikkei up .88%

 

Malaysian palm oil down 19 (13 month low)

 

China grain closings – beans down 26, corn unchanged , meal up 9, palm oil down 16 – Dalian Commodity Exchange

 

Surveyor SGS estimated Malaysia’s March palm oil exports at 1,200,388 tons down 3.4% from February

 

Surveyor Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia’s March palm oil exports at 1,205,010 tons down 3.1% from February

 

Reports of China bought 1 Brazilian bean cargo for July shipment on Friday –Reuters

 

Reports of China buying 1-2 Argentine bean cargoes Friday for June – August shipment – Reuters

 

Tunisia bought 50,000 milling wheat and 25,000 barley optional origin (possibly Black Sea origin) for April –May shipment

 

Iraq seeks 50K tons of wheat from Canada, Australia, US , and or Black Sea region

 

Jordan seeks 150K Optional origin feed barley

 

South Korea seeks 39,263 tons of rice from US and or China for July-Sept shipment

 

There was a proposal in Brazil last week to charge a 9.25% export tax on oilseeds. The government scrapped this proposal on Friday

 

Xinhua News Network said Ukraine has agreed to end the VAT (value added tax) redemptions on grain exports, which could possibly mean a 20% rise in cost to exporters. – Reuters

 

Russia’s Ag Min said Russia has exported 20.345 MMT of grain between July 1st – March 26th up 44.1% from a year ago

 

Russia’s Ag Min estimated Russia’s ‘13/14 grain exports at 22.0 MMT vs. ‘12/13 exports of 15.69 MMT

 

Rains in Argentina over the weekend , dry forecast early this week, rains and storms in forecast for later this week into the weekend

 

Some thunderstorms in Brazil’s corn and bean areas over the weekend , dry forecast early this week.

 

Showers in Indonesia and Malaysia yesterday

 

Dryness concerns in western Australia

 

Concerns about Russia’s winter grain crop due to cold weather

 

Today is the second day of the Rogers roll. Roll ends tomorrow. Rogers is rolling long May positions into July.

 

May bean oil 50 day moving average is 4048

 

May bean oil 100 day moving average is 4046

 

Safras e Mercado weekly Brazilian crop progress report

  • Brazilian bean harvest 73% complete vs. 67% a week ago vs. 72% a year ago, and vs. 64% average
  • Estimated Brazilian bean crop at 86.924 MMT vs. previous estimate of 86.144 MMT
  • Second corn crop is 98.5% planted vs. 99.4% a year ago
  • First corn crop is 65.6% harvested vs. 54.2% a year ago

 

Weekly COT supplemental report from Friday. Large spec positions as of March 25th , futures and options combined

  • Wheat short 4,209
  • KC wheat long 19,251
  • Corn long 158,728
  • Beans long 142,356
  • Meal long 32,949
  • Bean oil short 1,776

 

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • Total corn 1,340,024 open, up 4,315
  • Total beans 624,189 open, up 1,188
  • Total meal 311,135 open, down 202
  • Total bean oil 310,174 open, up 2,358
  • Total wheat 361,579 open, up 361
  • Total KC wheat 146,286 open, down 533

 

Estimates for today’s USDA report.

 

Estimates for 2014 US acreage

  • Corn (27 analysts surveyed) average estimate 92.748 MA , range of estimates are 90.5-94.0 MA. USDA outlook forum estimate was 92.0 MA. 2013 corn acreage was 95.365 MA
  • Beans (27 analysts surveyed) average estimate 81.075 MA, range of estimates are 78.5-83.6 MA. USDA outlook forum estimate was 79.5 MA. 2013 bean acreage was 76.533 MA
  • All wheat (25 analysts surveyed) average estimate 56.277 MA, range of estimates are 54.8-57.711 MA. USDA outlook forum estimate was 55.500 MA. 2013 all wheat acreage was 56.156 MA
  • Winter wheat (23 analysts surveyed) average estimate 42.157 MA, range of estimates are 41.8-44.0 MA. 2013 winter wheat acreage was 43.090 MA
  • Other spring wheat (23 analysts surveyed) average estimate 12.270 MA , range of estimates are 11.0-13.5 MA. 2013 other spring wheat acreage was 11.596 MA
  • Durum wheat (23 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.794 MA , range of estimates 1.390 – 2.200 MA . 2013 durum wheat acreage was 1.470 MA

 

Estimates for US quarterly grain stocks

  • Wheat (19 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.042 BB, range of estimates are .985-1.115 BB. Dec 1st 2013 US wheat stocks were 1.463 BB and March 1, 2013 stocks were 1.235 BB
  • Corn (21 analysts surveyed) average estimate 7.099 BB, range of estimates are 6.861 – 7.540 BB. Dec 1st 2013 US corn stocks were 10.426 BB and March 1st 2013 corn stocks were 5.4 BB
  • Beans (21 analysts surveyed) average estimate .989 BB, range of estimates are .955 – 1.087 BB. Dec 1st 2013 US bean stocks were 2.148 BB and March 1 2013 US bean stocks were .998 BB

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out today at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US state crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CST
  • Final HSBC China PMI comes out tomorrow
  • Eurozone unemployment comes out tomorrow
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • China to auction 300,000 tons of rapeseed oil from reserves this week
  • US March unemployment report comes out on Friday at 730 am CST
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins April 7th. Goldman Sachs roll lasts for 5 days. They will be rolling their long May positions forward.
  • Weekly US crop progress reports start again Monday April 7th at 3 pm CST
  • USDA supply and demand and crop production report comes out on April 9th

 

Data sources: DowJones , Bloomberg, Reuters , DTN news, barchart.com and CME Group, NYSE