News From The Grain Floor

ou must be in tune with the times and prepared to break with tradition.

James Agee

 

Rogers roll begins today. The roll last for 3 days. They will be rolling their long May positions into July.

No USDA announcements this morning

 

Overnight closes

  • SK down a ½ at 1436
  • CK down ¾ at 491 ¼
  • WK down 6 at 704 ½
  • KC WK down 6 ¾ at 777
  • MWK down 5 ½ at 748 ¾
  • SMK down .60 at 469.90
  • BOK up 5 at 4048
  • RRK up .50 at 1547.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SK 5,805
  • CK 9,413
  • WK 7,527
  • KC WK 594
  • MWK 88
  • SMK 3,196
  • BOK9,064
  • RRK 6

 

Opening calls

  • Beans steady mixed
  • Corn steady lower
  • Wheat 5-7 lower
  • KC wheat 5-7 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 5-7 lower
  • Meal steady to 1.00 lower
  • Bean oil steady to 10 higher
  • Rice steady

 

Stock market, crude, and dollar higher. Gold and silver higher

 

Nikkei up .50%

Hang Seng up 1.04%

Shanghai Index down .24%

 

Palm oil down 1

 

China grain closings – beans down 22, corn down 1, meal down 22, palm and bean oil down 4

 

Indonesia government set April palm oil export tax at 13.5% vs. 10.5% currently

 

Algeria bought 250,000-300,000 tons of optional origin (possibly France) milling wheat for May/June shipment

 

Egypt FIHC bought 36,500 tons of sunflower oil for May shipment

 

Oil World estimated Brazil’s 2014 biodiesel production at 2.9 MMT vs. 2.6MMT in 2013

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange weekly Argentine crop report

  • Estimated ‘13/14 corn crop at 24.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 23.5 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 crop of 27 MMT
  • Corn harvest is 10% complete vs. 7% a week ago and vs. 18% a year ago
  • Bean crop estimated at 54.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Bean harvest is 3.2% complete vs. 1.2% a week ago and vs. 5% a year ago
  • Sunflower crop estimated at 2.3 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Sunflower harvest is 81.3% complete vs. 68.3% a week ago and vs. 82% a year ago

 

Argentine Ag Min yesterday estimated ‘13/14 Argentine bean crop at a record 54.0 MMT (first estimate they made) up 9.5% from ‘12/13

 

Argentina Ag Min estimated bean area at 20.27 MH vs. previous estimate of 20.3 MH

 

Argentine Ag Min yesterday estimated ‘13/14 Argentine corn crop at 29.8 MMT (first estimate they made) vs. USDA estimate of 24.0 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 crop of 32.1 MMT

 

Argentine Ag Min estimated corn area at 5.7 MH

 

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine exported 2.5 MMT of grain between March 1-27th.

 

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine exported 26.9 MMT of grain between July 1st – March 27th

 

IGC ‘14/15 estimates

  • Global wheat production at 700 MMT vs. previous estimate of 696 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 estimate of 709 MMT
  • Global wheat consumption at 700 MMT vs. ‘13/14 estimate of 692 MMT
  • Global corn production at 961 MMT (record) vs. ‘13/14 estimate of 959 MMT
  • Global corn consumption at 945 MMT  vs. ‘13/14 estimate of 931 MMT

 

CEC estimated South Africa’s 2014 corn crop  at 12.955 MMT vs. Reuters poll estimate of 12.7 MMT and vs. previous estimate of 12.403 MMT

 

Rains and thunderstorms this weekend in Argentina, dry early next week

 

Rains and thunderstorms this weekend in Brazil’s corn and bean areas

 

Some light scattered showers, but mostly dry  in Central and Southern US Plains next 1-10 days.

 

Dryness concerns for western Australia

 

BOK 50 day moving average is 4044

 

BOK 100 day moving average is 4048

 

Option players from yesterday

 

Corn:

RJO bot 1000 week 1 505 calls/sold 1000 Z 410 puts

ABN sold 700 K 490 puts

ABN sold 1000 K 490 straddles

ABN bot 700 H 410 puts/sold 1000 Z 430 puts

ICAP bot 1000 short dated U 450-380 put spreads

ICAP bot 800 N 490 straddles

FI sold 500 week 1 470 puts

FI sold 500 week 1 460 puts

JPM sold 1000 K 520 calls

 

Beans:

JPM bot 1500 K 1500 calls

JPM bot 1000 N 1480 calls

ABN bot 1250 K 1380 puts/sold 250 K 1450 straddles

ABN bot 1500 K 1380 puts/sold 500 K 1450 puts

ABN bot 500 N 1340 puts

ABN bot 800 N 1410 puts

Marex sold 1000 N 1500 calls/bot 280 SN

Rosenthal sold 1000 N 1300 puts

Rosenthal bot 500 X 1240 puts/bot 500 SX

Man sold 1000 N 1500 calls

New Edge bot 900 short dated N 1120-1100 put spreads

ADM bot 500 N 1340-1440 call spreads

ADM bot 400 K 1440 calls

 

Wheat:

ADM bot 1200 K 610 puts

ICAP bot 1200 K 640 puts/sold 300 K 700 straddles

JPM sold 700 K 750 calls/650 put strangles

JPM bot 500 M 650-600 put spreads

JPM sold 500 K 750 calls

JPM sold 400 N 840 calls

JPM sold 400 U 840 calls

 

Meal:

ICAP sold 1300 Z 350-380 call spreads/bot 260 SMZ

ABN bot 400 K 440 puts

RJO sold 200 N 440 straddles

RJO sold 200 Z 360 straddles

JPM bot 250 N 460 calls

JPM bot 200 N 450-490 call spreads

 

Oil:

RJO sold 600 N 40 puts/43 call strangles

RJO bot 300 N 42 calls

RJO bot 250 K 41 calls

ICAP bot 300 Z 41-43 call spreads

ICAP bot 250 V 41-42 ½ call spreads

New Edge bot 400 N 41 calls/sold 400 N 38 ½ puts

 

Estimated fund activity from yesterday

  • Wheat bought 7K
  • Corn bought 10K
  • Beans sold 2K
  • Meal traded even
  • Bean oil bought 3K

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,335,858 open, up 10,170
  • Total beans 628,065 open, up 771
  • Total meal 311,389 open, up 1,085
  • Total bean oil 307,963 open, up 5,007
  • Total wheat 361,109 open, up 2,755
  • Total KC wheat 146,881 open, up 904

 

USDA US quarterly stocks and prospective plantings report comes out on Monday at 11 am CST  

 

Estimates for 2014 US acreage

  • Corn (27 analysts surveyed) average estimate 92.748 MA , range of estimates are 90.5-94.0 MA. USDA outlook forum estimate was 92.0 MA. 2013 corn acreage was 95.365 MA
  • Beans (27 analysts surveyed) average estimate 81.075 MA, range of estimates are 78.5-83.6 MA. USDA outlook forum estimate was 79.5 MA. 2013 bean acreage was 76.533 MA
  • All wheat (25 analysts surveyed) average estimate 56.277 MA, range of estimates are 54.8-57.711 MA. USDA outlook forum estimate was 55.500 MA. 2013 all wheat acreage was 56.156 MA
  • Winter wheat (23 analysts surveyed) average estimate 42.157 MA, range of estimates are 41.8-44.0 MA. 2013 winter wheat acreage was 43.090 MA
  • Other spring wheat (23 analysts surveyed) average estimate 12.270 MA , range of estimates are 11.0-13.5 MA. 2013 other spring wheat acreage was 11.596 MA
  • Durum wheat (23 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.794 MA , range of estimates 1.390 – 2.200 MA . 2013 durum wheat acreage was 1.470 MA

 

Estimates for US quarterly grain stocks

  • Wheat (19 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.042 BB, range of estimates are .985-1.115 BB. Dec 1st 2013 US wheat stocks were 1.463 BB and March 1, 2013 stocks were 1.235 BB
  • Corn (21 analysts surveyed) average estimate 7.099 BB, range of estimates are 6.861 – 7.540 BB. Dec 1st 2013 US corn stocks were 10.426 BB and March 1st 2013 corn stocks were 5.4 BB
  • Beans (21 analysts surveyed) average estimate .989 BB, range of estimates are .955 – 1.087 BB. Dec 1st 2013 US bean stocks were 2.148 BB and March 1 2013 US bean stocks were .998 BB

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST
  • Monday is the end of the month and end of the quarter.
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out Monday with their March Malaysian palm oil export estimates
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • USDA US planting intentions and quarterly stocks report comes out on Monday, March 31st at 11 am CST
  • Weekly US state crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CST
  • China to auction 300,000 tons of rapeseed oil from reserves next week
  • US March unemployment report comes out on Friday April 4th
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins April 7th. Goldman Sachs roll lasts for 5 days. They will be rolling their long May positions forward.
  • Weekly US crop progress reports start again Monday April 7th at 3 pm CST