News From The Grain Floor

“You don’t stop laughing because you grow old. You grow old because you stop laughing.”

– Michael Pritchard

 

No USDA announcements this morning .

 

Overnight closes

  • SK up 2 ¾ at 1442 ¾
  • CK up 1 ½ at 486
  • WK down 4 ¼ at 692 ½
  • KC WK down 3 ¾ at 767 ½
  • MWK down 6 at 741
  • SMK up 2.90 at 472.00
  • BOK down 1 at 4072

 

Overnight volume

  • SK 13,986
  • CK 13,967
  • WK 7,765
  • KC WK 1,026
  • MWK 185
  • SMK 5,801
  • BOK 10,282

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 2-4 higher
  • Corn 1-3 higher
  • Wheat 3-5 lower
  • KC wheat 2-4 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 5-7 lower
  • Meal 2-3 higher
  • Bean oil steady easier

 

Crude and dollar higher. Stock market, silver, and gold lower.

 

Nikkei up .99%

Hang Seng down .24%

Shanghai Index down .84%

 

US jobless claims report  came out this morning at – 10K to 311K expecting 325K

 

Palm oil down 34

 

China grain closings – beans down 2, corn unchanged , meal up 25, palm oil up 2, bean oil up 18

 

Reports / market talk from yesterday Mexico and Nigeria have switched US HRW wheat for cheaper Russian wheat

 

Reports / market talk from yesterday Argentine meal was sold into Stockton CA

 

Jordan canceled tender to import 100K optional origin barley for June-July shipment

 

Tunisia seeks 50K milling wheat and 25K feed barley optional origin for April –May shipment

 

MOA said China’s 2014 grain planting area will increase by .3% from 2013

 

USDA attaché in Brazil estimated ‘13/14 corn crop at 72.0 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 70.0 MMT

 

USDA attaché in Brazil estimated ‘14/15 corn crop at 71.0 MMT

 

USDA attaché in Brazil estimated ‘14/15 wheat area at 2.0 MH down 9% from a year ago

 

USDA attaché in Brazil estimated ‘14/15 wheat production at 5.0 MMT down 6% from a year ago

 

USDA attaché in Brazil estimated ‘13/14 wheat imports at 7.3 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 7.4 MMT

 

USDA attaché in Malaysia estimated ‘14/15 palm oil output at 19.2 MMT unchanged from ‘13/14

 

USDA attaché in Malaysia estimated ‘14/15 palm oil exports at 17.6 MMT vs. 17.8 MMT in ‘13/14

 

USDA attaché in Malaysia estimated ‘14/15 palm oil domestic use at 2.3 MMT vs. 2.1 MMT a year ago

 

USDA attaché in Malaysia estimated ‘14/15 ending stocks at 1.7 MMT unchanged from ‘13/14

 

Felda Global Ventures Holding Bhd (world’s 3rd largest palm plantation operator) estimated their 2014 palm oil production at 3.30 MMT vs. 3.21 MMT in 2013 and said 2014 production could fall another 3-5% due to drought

 

Ruchi Soya Industries estimated India’s ‘13/14 sunflower oil imports at 1.45 MMT (record) up 54% from a year ago

 

Ruchi Soya Industries estimated India’s ‘13/14 palm oil imports at 7.4 MMT vs. 8.17 MMT a year ago

 

Ruchi Soya Industries estimated India’s ‘13/14 total edible oil imports at 10.8 MMT up 4% from a year ago

 

Argentina Feb soybean crush at 1.529 MMT vs. 1.965 MMT a month ago and vs. 1.212 MMT a year ago

 

Algeria Ag Min estimated 2014 grain crop at 5.5 MMT vs. 4.9 MMT in 2013

 

Algeria Ag Min estimated 2014 soft and durum wheat imports at 5-5.5 MMT

 

Egypt Supplies Minister expects Egypt’s ‘14/15 wheat imports to fall 1.0-1.5 MMT from ‘13/14

 

Egypt Supplies Minister said Egypt has enough wheat stocks to last until mid-June

 

Kazakhstan Ag Min said Kazakhstan exported 6.5 MMT of grain by rail between July 1st – March 20th vs. 5.1 MMT a year ago

 

Vietnam Ag Min said Vietnam exported 1.32 MMT of rice between Jan – March down 15% from a year ago

 

Philippines to import 800K tons of rice for May August shipment

 

Rains yesterday in Kansas and Oklahoma , more rains in the forecast today.

 

BOK 50 day moving average is 4040

 

BOK 100 day moving average is 4050

 

Weekly US export sales report came out this morning at 730 am CST

  • Wheat – ’13/14 400,500    ‘14/15  327,500 (expecting – old crop 325-475K , new crop 50-250K)
  • Corn – ‘13/14 1.41 M     ‘14/15 28,400  (expecting – old crop 525-725K , new crop 0-200,000)
  • Beans – ‘13/14 11,900  ‘14/15 534,900 (expecting – old crop 100-250K , new crop 300-500K)
  • Meal – ‘13/14  158,500 ‘14/15  (expecting – old crop 100-200K , new crop 100-200K)
  • Bean oil – ‘13/14 ‘14/15 (expecting – old crop 0-50K , new crop 0-10K)

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 400,500 MT for delivery during the 2013/2014 marketing year were unchanged from the previous week, but down 11 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Japan (128,700 MT), the Philippines (111,600 MT), Nigeria (65,000 MT), Egypt (55,000 MT), Yemen (55,000 MT, switched from unknown destinations), Indonesia (44,600 MT, switched from unknown destinations), South Korea (23,800 MT, including 17,000 MT switched from Japan and decreases of 2,000 MT), and the Dominican Republic (8,100 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (97,000 MT) and Trinidad (4,000 MT). Net sales of 327,500 MT for 2014/2015 were reported for Mexico (229,500 MT), unknown destinations (90,000 MT), and the Philippines (10,000 MT). Decreases were reported for South Korea (2,000 MT). Exports of 530,400 MT were up 21 percent from the previous week and 2 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Nigeria (81,800 MT), South Korea (80,500 MT), the Philippines (53,500 MT), Thailand (50,000 MT), Mexico (49,400 MT), and Japan (46,300 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 1,408,300 MT for 2013/2014 were up 89 percent from the previous week and 49 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Egypt (431,100 MT, including 26,100 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (239,600 MT) Colombia (187,400 MT, including 62,700 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,800 MT), South Korea (139,000 MT), Japan (110,300 MT, including 108,200 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 29,100 MT), Taiwan (72,000 MT), Morocco (37,300 MT, including 20,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and 12,000 MT switched from China), and Peru (35,200 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (16,100 MT), China (9,500 MT), and Guatemala (2,900 MT). Net sales of 28,400 MT for 2014/2015 were reported for unknown destinations (25,400 MT) and China (5,000 MT). Decreases were reported for Mexico (2,000 MT). Exports of 1,230,000 MT were up 33 percent from the previous week and 29 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (353,200 MT), Japan (249,800 MT), Colombia (127,600 MT), Taiwan (79,400 MT), Venezuela (71,000 MT), and South Korea (63,100 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 11,900 MT for 2013/2014 resulted as increases for the Netherlands (81,000 MT, including 74,500 MT switched from unknown destinations), Japan (72,900 MT, including 28,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (40,500 MT), China (21,700 MT), and Taiwan (13,500 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (170,000 MT), Indonesia (39,800 MT), Venezuela (25,000 MT), Thailand (6,500 MT), and Vietnam (1,500 MT). Net sales of 534,900 MT for 2014/2015 were reported primarily for China (336,000 MT), Indonesia (115,000 MT), and unknown destinations (55,000 MT). Exports of 720,100 MT were down 36 percent from the previous week and 41 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (317,400 MT), Indonesia (111,200 MT), Japan (83,000 MT), the Netherlands (81,000 MT), and Mexico (50,000 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 158,500 MT for 2013/2014 were down 35 percent from the previous week and 16 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Saudi Arabia (28,800 MT, including 24,800 MT switched from unknown destinations), the Philippines (28,500 MT), Mexico (26,700 MT), Colombia (25,500 MT), Italy (25,000 MT), and Ecuador (12,000 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (36,500 MT). Net sales of 31,000 MT for 2014/2015 were reported for unknown destinations (25,000 MT) and Indonesia (6,000 MT). Exports of 180,700 MT were down 25 percent from the previous week and 35 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Morocco (32,400 MT), Saudi Arabia (30,200 MT), Mexico (27,000 MT), Canada (17,800 MT), the Dominican Republic (16,100 MT), and Venezuela (12,000 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 4,000 MT for 2013/2014 were up 94 percent from the previous week, but down 43 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (2,000 MT), Venezuela (1,500 MT), the Dominican Republic (800 MT), and Canada (500 MT). Decreases were reported for Nicaragua (1,000 MT). Exports of 4,900 MT were down 37 percent from the previous week and 79 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (3,700 MT) and Canada (1,100 MT).

 

Option players from yesterday

 

Corn:

RJO bot 2500 week 1 505 calls

JPM bot 500 N 520 calls/sold 1000 N 550 calls

JPM bot 300 short dated N 450 puts/sold 600 short dated K 450 puts

KCG bot 500 N 520 calls

ABN bot 600 K 480 straddles

ICAP bot 500 Z 460 puts/500 call strangles

 

Beans:

GFI bot 1000 N 1380 straddles/sold 1000 N 1400 straddles

Bache sold 1000 M 1460 calls/ bot 200 SK

Rosenthal bot 700 short dated N 1100 puts

RJO sold 500 week 4 1410 puts/1450 call strangles

ADM bot 400 K 1410 calls

JPM sold 1000 K 1380 puts/sold 265 SK

 

Wheat:

Man bot 500 N 640 puts

JPM bot 500 N 670-620 put spreads

Newedge bot 500 KCN 700 puts

Tenco bot 400 KCN 610 puts

ICAP bot 400 U 700 puts

Macquarie bot 400 K 640 puts

 

 

Meal:

FCS bot 300 K 460 calls

Rosenthal sold 200 N 440 puts

 

Oil:

ADM bot 900 K 44 ½ calls

ADM bot 200 K 43 ½ calls

FCS bot 400 N 40 ½-39 put spreads

FCS sold 300 N 43 ½-46 call spreads

RJO bot 200 N 45-49 call spreads

JPM bot 250 N 44-46 call spreads

 

USDA US quarterly stocks and prospective plantings report comes out on Monday at 11 am CST  

 

Estimates for 2014 US acreage

  • Corn (27 analysts surveyed) average estimate 92.748 MA , range of estimates are 90.5-94.0 MA. USDA outlook forum estimate was 92.0 MA. 2013 corn acreage was 95.365 MA
  • Beans (27 analysts surveyed) average estimate 81.075 MA, range of estimates are 78.5-83.6 MA. USDA outlook forum estimate was 79.5 MA. 2013 bean acreage was 76.533 MA
  • All wheat (25 analysts surveyed) average estimate 56.277 MA, range of estimates are 54.8-57.711 MA. USDA outlook forum estimate was 55.500 MA. 2013 all wheat acreage was 56.156 MA
  • Winter wheat (23 analysts surveyed) average estimate 42.157 MA, range of estimates are 41.8-44.0 MA. 2013 winter wheat acreage was 43.090 MA
  • Other spring wheat (23 analysts surveyed) average estimate 12.270 MA , range of estimates are 11.0-13.5 MA. 2013 other spring wheat acreage was 11.596 MA
  • Durum wheat (23 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.794 MA , range of estimates 1.390 – 2.200 MA . 2013 durum wheat acreage was 1.470 MA

 

Estimates for US quarterly grain stocks

  • Wheat (19 analysts surveyed) average estimate 1.042 BB, range of estimates are .985-1.115 BB. Dec 1st 2013 US wheat stocks were 1.463 BB and March 1, 2013 stocks were 1.235 BB
  • Corn (21 analysts surveyed) average estimate 7.099 BB, range of estimates are 6.861 – 7.540 BB. Dec 1st 2013 US corn stocks were 10.426 BB and March 1st 2013 corn stocks were 5.4 BB
  • Beans (21 analysts surveyed) average estimate .989 BB, range of estimates are .955 – 1.087 BB. Dec 1st 2013 US bean stocks were 2.148 BB and March 1 2013 US bean stocks were .998 BB

 

I have to leave work early today, I will not be putting out an afternoon recap. – Kate

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas Storage report comes out today at 930 am CST – 51 BCF
  • Rogers roll begins tomorrow March 28th and ends Tuesday April 1st. They will be rolling their long May positions into July
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST
  • Monday is the end of the month and end of the quarter.
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out Monday with their March Malaysian palm oil export estimates
  • USDA US planting intentions and quarterly stocks report comes out on Monday, March 31st at 11 am CST
  • China to auction 300,000 tons of rapeseed oil from reserves next week
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins April 7th. Goldman Sachs roll lasts for 5 days. They will be rolling their long May positions forward.
  • Weekly US crop progress reports start again Monday April 7th at 3 pm CST