News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

You must be in tune with the times and prepared to break with tradition.

James Agee

 

No USDA announcements this morning

 

Informa comes out today at 1030 am CST with their 2014 US acreage estimates . Previous estimates from Informa were

  • Corn acreage at 93.319 MA vs. 2013 acreage of 95.4 MA
  • Bean acreage at 81.264 MA vs. 2013 acreage of 76.5 MA
  • Winter wheat acreage at 41.9 MA vs. 2013 acreage of 43.090 MA
  • Cotton acreage at 10.9MA vs. 2013 acreage of 10.407 MA

 

Overnight closes

  • SK up 2 ¾ at 1428 ¼
  • CK down 2 at 488
  • WK down 5 at 709 ½
  • KC WK down 5 ¾ at 788 ¾
  • MWK down 5 at 758
  • SMK up .90 at 462.90
  • BOK up 11 at 4095
  • RRK up 3 at 1553.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SK 9,860
  • CK 12,333
  • WK 5,302
  • KC WK 434
  • MWK 132
  • SMK 2,767
  • BOK 7,086
  • RRK 15

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 2-4 higher
  • Corn 1-3 lower
  • Wheat 4-6 lower
  • KC wheat 5-7 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 4-6 lower
  • Meal .50-1.50 higher
  • Bean oil  10-15 higher
  • Rice 2-4 higher

 

Gold and silver lower. Stock market, dollar, and crude oil higher .

 

Nikkei down .36%

Hang Seng down .53%

Shanghai Index up .05%

 

China grain closings – beans up 9, corn up 3, meal up 56, palm oil down 42, bean oil up 4

 

Palm oil up 8

 

Jordan seeks 150,000 tons of optional origin wheat for April –May shipment

 

Taiwan MFIG canceled corn tender to buy 60,000 South American or US origin due to high prices for May/June shipment

 

Reports continue of China trying to roll forward or resell Brazilian bean cargoes

 

Report on Reuters – Xinhua news – US has already ordered 500K South American soybeans and is working on additional deals

 

UkrAgroConsult said Ukraine exported 2.019 MMT of grain between March 1-24th

 

UkrAgroConsult said Ukraine exported 257,600 tons of sunflower oil between March 1-24th

 

Russia Ag Min said as of March 24th spring grain plantings are .8% complete on 396,400 hectares vs. 443,400 hectares a year ago

 

Russia Ag Min estimated Russia’s spring grain area at 31.8 MH up 1.7% from a year ago

 

SovEcon estimated Russia’s ‘14/15 grain exports at 22.0 MMT vs. 24.1 MMT in ‘13/14

 

SovEcon estimated Russia’s 2014 grain crop at 88.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 86.0 MMT and vs. 92.0 MMT in 2013

 

SAGIS said South Africa February corn ending stocks at 1.649 MMT vs. January ending stocks of 2.316 MMT

 

SAGIS said South Africa exported 2.045 MMT of corn until the end of February

 

Dry Argentine forecast

 

Dry Brazilian forecast until this weekend when rains and thunderstorms are in forecast

 

Only light showers in forecast for Central and Southern US Plains. More rain is needed

 

Japan weather forecaster said Japan to see average weather April – June

 

14 wheat receipts canceled yesterday afternoon out of Maumee OH – The Andersons

 

Chinese industry analysts – Weekly Chinese crush breakdown

  • For the week March 15-21st total crush volume at 1,202,200 tons up 2.67% from a week ago
  • For the week March 15-21st total crush capacity utilization at 42.09% up 1.02% from a week ago
  • Total ‘13/14 crush volume (Oct 1st, 2013-March 21, 2014) at 32,329,888 tons up 19.16% from a year ago
  • Total 2014 crush volume (Jan 1st – March 21st) at 13,972,370 tons up 16.06% from a year ago
  • As of March 21st total imported bean stocks at 5.2905 MMT down 25,700 tons from a week ago and up 21.01% from a year ago
  • Estimated March bean imports at 5.1191 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated April bean imports at 6.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 6.1 MMT
  • Estimated May bean imports at 5.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 6.0 MMT
  • Estimated June bean imports at 5.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.8 MMT

 

Weekly US state crop progress report from yesterday afternoon

  • Texas corn planting 20% complete vs. 15% a week ago , vs. 47% a year ago and vs. 43% average
  • Texas winter wheat condition – poor to very poor 55% up 3% from a week ago, good to excellent 11% down 2% from a week ago
  • Oklahoma winter wheat condition – poor to very poor 42% up 5% from a week ago, good to excellent 17% down 1% from a week ago
  • Kansas winter wheat condition – poor to very poor 21% up 1% from a week ago , good to excellent 33% down 1% from a week ago
  • Reports Alabama, Louisiana, and Mississippi corn planting is underway

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,328,860 open, up 9,346
  • Total beans 623,746 open, down 3,791
  • Total meal 310,886 open, down 2,156
  • Total bean oil 300,191 open, up 1,000
  • Total wheat 359,901 open , up 2,036
  • Total KC wheat 147,746 open, up 547

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • Weekly DOE #s come out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • China to auction 300,000 tons of rapeseed oil from reserves next week
  • CEC comes out on Thursday with their South American crop estimates
  • Rogers roll begins on Friday March 28th and ends Tuesday April 1st. They will be rolling their long May positions into July
  • Monday is the end of the month and end of the quarter.
  • USDA US planting intentions and quarterly stocks report comes out on Monday, March 31st at 11 am CST
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins April 7th. Goldman Sachs roll lasts for 5 days. They will be rolling their long May positions forward.
  • Weekly US crop progress reports start again Monday April 7th at 3 pm CST