News From The Grain Floor

Ask five economists and you’ll get five different answers – six if one went to Harvard.

–          Edgar Fiedler

 

No USDA announcements this morning

 

Overnight closes

  • SK up 8 at 1416 ¾
  • CK up 4 ½ at 483 ¼
  • WK up 7 ¾ at 701
  • KC WK up 8 at 779 ¼
  • MWK up 8 ¾ at 752
  • SMK up 3.40 at 459.30
  • BOK up 6 at 4108
  • RRK down 2 at 1540.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SK 21,832
  • CK 18,842
  • WK 15,386
  • KC WK 1,190
  • MWK 157
  • SMK 8,385
  • BOK 6,823
  • RRK 13

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 7-9 higher
  • Corn 4-6 higher
  • Wheat 6-8 higher
  • KC wheat 7-9 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 8-10 higher
  • Meal 3-4 higher
  • Bean oil steady to 10 higher
  • Rice 1-3 lower

 

Crude, stock market, and dollar higher. Gold and silver lower.

 

Nikkei up 1.77%

Hang Seng up 1.84%

Shanghai Index up .89%

 

Flash March mfg PMIs

  • China’s HSBC at 48.1 ( 8 month low) vs. Feb final of 48.5
  • Eurozone at 53.0 expecting 52.9 and vs. Feb final of 53.2
  • France at 51.9 expecting 49.6 and vs. Feb final of 49.7
  • Germany at 53.8 expecting 54.5 and vs. 54.8 Feb final

 

Tensions in Ukraine and Russia continue

 

Today is a holiday in Argentina

 

China grain closings – beans down 7, corn unchanged, meal up 1, palm oil down 8, and bean oil unchanged

 

Palm oil down 30

 

Taiwan seeks 60K US or SA corn for May June shipment

 

Reports from Friday China canceled 1 US bean cargo off the PNW

 

Reports China canceled 21,800 tons of US corn due to MIR162 unapproved GMO

 

Pakistan bought 90,000 canola from Canada for June shipment

 

Safras e Mercado said as of Friday Brazilian bean harvest is 67% complete vs. 59% a week ago vs. 64% a year ago and vs. 56% average

 

Another vessel was grounded on Parana river this weekend

 

Farm Futures estimated 2014 US bean acreage at a record 82.93 MA

 

Farm Futures estimated 2014 US corn acreage at 92.06 MA

 

Farm Futures estimated 2014 US all wheat acreage at 56.05 MA

 

SovEcon said on Friday that there are market concerns about the status of grain terminals at Crimean ports

 

Russia’s Ag Min said Russia exported 19.768 MMT of grain between July 1st – March 19th up 40.8% from a year ago

 

Russia Ag Min estimated ‘13/14 grain exports at 22.0 MMT vs. 15.69 MMT a year ago

 

Light rains in forecast for the first week of April in Central and Southern Plains, but may miss driest parts of US Southern Plains

 

Cool/cold weather this week in US Midwest

 

Dry weather forecast for Argentina and Brazil

 

22 bean receipts canceled Friday afternoon out of Cargill Spring Valley IL

 

Article on Bloomberg this morning

By Bloomberg News

March 24 (Bloomberg) — China soybean crushers agree to reduce imports as bird-flu outbreaks suppress demand and following large shipments in March and April, China Chamber of Commerce of Foodstuffs  and Native Produce says in e-mailed statement.

Domestic soybean meal supply and demand are “seriously out of balance,” industry is incurring “huge losses” and

faces unprecedented risks, state-backed group says

Crushers agree to process fewer soybeans to prevent supply  glut, statement says

Statement doesn’t identify names of crushers

Soybean crushers discussed improving pricing and contract terms for importing soybeans: statement

Chamber will help improve communication between crushers to prevent import of more soybeans than needed: statement

Chamber to hold regular meetings to promote stable growth of the oilseed industry: statement

 

Weekly COT supplemental report from Friday . Large Spec positions as of March 18th futures and options combined

  • Wheat short 16,986
  • KC wheat long 15,064
  • Corn long 151,306
  • Beans long 152,881
  • Meal long 32,976
  • Bean oil long 15,939

 

News From Friday

  • CNGOIC estimated ‘13/14 China’s rapeseed imports at 4.3-4.5 MMT (record) vs. ‘12/13 crop of 3.3 MMT
  • Sinograin estimated ‘13/14 China bean imports at 66-67 MMT up 13% from a year ago and vs. USDA estimate of 69.0 MMT
  • Sinograin on Friday confirmed China trying to delay shipments of South American beans into middle or late 2014
  • IMEA said Mato Grosso bean harvest is 92.5% complete
  • IMEA said Mato Grosso corn planting is nearly complete at 99.8%
  • Dorab Mistry ( palm oil analyst) said he is still bullish palm oil and expect prices to rise to 3000 ringgits per ton in April up 9% from current levels
  • Dorab Mistry said for the rest of the year palm oil prices will range from 2600-2900
  • Dorab Mistry estimated 2014 Malaysian palm oil production at 19.5-19.7 MMT
  • Dorab Mistry estimated 2014 Indonesia palm oil production at 30.5 MMT
  • Dorab Mistry said he may lower these estimates by June
  • South Korea bought 42,500 Thailand and Vietnam rice for June-July shipment
  • Estimated fund activity from Friday
    • Wheat sold 4K
    • Corn bought 2K
    • Beans sold 7K
    • Meal sold 3K
    • Bean oil sold 1,500

 

Open outcry players from Friday

 

Rand legged 500 CZ/WN spreads in the pit on Friday. They bought the corn and sold the wheat 1 to 1.

 

Corn:

FI sold 1200 K 500-550 call spreads

JPM bot 800 H 450 puts/sold 1600 H 400 puts

RJO bot 500 N 460 puts/sold 1000 N 430 puts

ICAP sold 500 K 500 calls/460 put strangles

 

Beans:

Bunge bot 1500 N 1360 calls/sold 2250 N 140 calls

JPM bot 1000 K 1380-1320 put spreads/bot 180 SK

FI bot 1000 K 1420 straddles

Rosenthal bot 800 K 1400 straddles

Rosenthal bot 1000 K 1300 puts

RJO bot 1200 X 1160 puts

ABN bot 1300 K 1300 puts

Macquarie bot 500 K 1450 calls

Man sold 1000 N 1380 calls/bot 500 SN

ADM sold 400 K 1360 puts

 

Wheat:

Macquarie bot 1500 M 730-780 call spreads

Macquarie bot 1000 M 700-740 call spreads

ABN bot 1000 K 675 puts

Rand bot 1250 K 650 puts/sold 250 K 700 puts

Newedge bot 500 K 750 calls

JPM bot 700 M 600 puts

Newedge bot 500 KC N 680-630 put spreads

 

Oil:

Mizuho bot 500 K 43 calls

Rosenthal sold 600 K 42 straddles

ABN sold 300 K 40 puts

Bache bot 1500 N 41 puts/sold 900 N 43 puts

 

Meal:

Bunge sold 200 K 370 calls

JPM bot 200 N 410-390 put spreads

 

Crush and oil share:

ABN sold 80 May crush at 48.5

ABN bought 80 July crush at 40

Tenco sold 50 Dec crush at 76-77

ABN bought 100 July oil/55 July meal at 31.85% (oil share)

ADM bought 70 Dec oil/meal at 35.00% (oil share)

 

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • Total corn 1,320,049 open, down 2,409
  • Total beans 629,154 open, down 7,305
  • Total meal 312,680 open, down 758
  • Total bean oil 299,119 open, down 1,261
  • Total wheat 360,023 open, up 4,277
  • Total KC wheat 147,170 open, up 2,910

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out today at 10 am CST
  • Weekly  US state crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CST
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out tomorrow with their March 1-25th Malaysian palm oil export estimates
  • Informa US acreage estimates come out tomorrow with their 2014 US acreage estimates . Informa comes out at 1030 am CST
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • China to auction 300,000 tons of rapeseed oil from reserves this week
  • CEC comes out on Thursday with their South American crop estimates
  • USDA US planting intentions and quarterly stocks report comes out on Monday, March 31st at 11 am CST
  • Weekly US crop progress reports start again Monday April 7th at 3 pm CST