News From The Grain Floor

Don’t complain about it if you’re not going to make it better

–          Sen. Blanche Lincoln

 

Egypt GASC is in for wheat for April shipment. I am hearing they bought 1 US cargo, 1 Russian cargo, and 1 Ukrainian cargo. 

 

Overnight closes

  • SK up 13 ¼ at 1405
  • CK up 2 ½ at 481 ½
  • WK up 3 ¼ at 677 ¾
  • KC WK up 3 ¾ at 747 ¼
  • MWK up 3 ¾ at 728
  • SMK up 6.20 at 452.80
  • BOK up 2 at 4191
  • RRK down 1 at 1549.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SK 12,875
  • CK 13,348
  • WK 6,365
  • KC WK 636
  • MWK 211
  • SMK 6,751
  • BOK 12,266
  • RRK 36

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 10-15 higher
  • Corn 2-4 higher
  • Wheat 2-4 higher
  • KC wheat 3-5 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 2-4 higher
  • Meal 5.50-6.50 higher
  • Bean oil steady better
  • Rice steady lower

 

Gold and silver lower. Stock market, dollar, and crude oil higher

 

Nikkei up .936%

Hang Seng up .510%

Shanghai Index up .073%

 

FOMC 2 day policy meeting begins today

 

Moody downgraded its rating on Argentina government bond to Caa1 from B3

 

Palm oil up 19

 

China grain closings – beans up 9, corn up 5, meal up 11, palm oil down 8, bean oil down 34

 

Malaysian government raised April palm oil export tax to 5.5% from 5% currently

 

Chinese industry analysts – Weekly Chinese crush breakdown

  • For the week March 8th – March 14th total crush volume at 1,170,850 tons up 1.1% from a week ago
  • For the week March 8th – March 14th total crush capacity utilization at 41.07% up .29% from a week ago
  • Expecting crush volume to be up to 1.25 MMT next week
  • Total ‘13/14 (Oct 1st , 2013- March 14, 2014) crush volume at 31,127,688 tons up 19.50% from a year ago
  • Total 2014 (Jan 1st – March 14th, 2014) crush volume at 12,770,170 tons up 16.55% from a year ago
  • As of March 14th total imported bean stocks at 5.3162 MMT up 75,000 tons from a week ago and up 1.43% from a year ago
  • Estimated March bean imports at 5.1191 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated April bean imports at 6.1 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.8 MMT
  • Estimated May bean imports at 6.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 6.2 MMT
  • Estimated June bean imports at 5.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 6.5 MMT
  • Said Chinese meal demand may fall 10-15% this year

 

Reports Chinese government are getting ready to sell rapeseed oil from reserves

 

South Korea NOFI bought 193,000 tons of US and SA corn for June/July shipment

 

South Korea bought 14,614 tons of Thai rice for June shipment

 

Lebanon bought 25,000 tons of Kazakhstan wheat for April shipment

 

Japan seeks 118,795 tons of US and Australian wheat for April June shipment

Tunisia seeks 42,000 durum wheat optional origin for April-May shipment

 

Abiove estimated ‘13/14 Brazilian bean crop at 86.1 MMT vs. previous estimate of 88.6 MMT

 

Abiove estimated ‘13/14 Brazilian bean exports at 44.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 44.5 MMT

 

Hearing Cordonnier estimated ‘13/14 Brazilian bean crop at 86.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 87.0 MMT

 

Ukraine loaded about 700,000 tons of corn last week easing concerns that political unrest in Ukraine would limit exports

 

Argentina port workers may strike

 

Weekly State crop progress report from yesterday afternoon

  • Texas corn crop is 15% planted vs. 40% a year ago and vs. 31% average
  • Texas wheat conditions 13% good to excellent vs. 28% a week ago and vs. 16% a year ago
  • Texas wheat conditions 52% poor to very poor vs. 31% a week ago
  • Oklahoma wheat conditions 18% good to excellent vs. 22% a week ago and vs. 24% s year ago
  • Colorado wheat conditions 35% good to excellent vs. 12% a year ago
  • Kansas wheat conditions 34% good to excellent vs. 37% a week ago and vs. 29% a year ago

 

Deliveries

  • Wheat 1 with the date at 3/14
    • ADM House stopped 1
  • Mini wheat 5 with the date current

 

Moving averages

  • CK 200 day 476
  • MWK 200 day 723 ¼

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,323,383 open, up 6,059
  • Total beans 659,476 open, down 5,329
  • Total meal 313,622 open, up 1,963
  • Total bean oil 300,346 open, up 2,185
  • Total wheat 345,094 open, up 1,253
  • Total KC wheat 133,387 open, up 382

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • China to auction 878,300 tons of wheat tomorrow
  • Weekly DOE #s come out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Fed announcement Wednesday at 1 pm CST
  • Informa US acreage estimates come out next week
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will come out on Thursday with their Malaysian 1-20th palm oil export estimates
  • EU leaders summit in Brussels Thursday and Friday
  • Last trading day for April options is Friday March 21st
  • USDA US planting intentions and quarterly stocks report comes out on Monday, March 31st at 11 am CST