News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

St. Patrick’s Day is an enchanted time – a day to begin transforming winter’s dreams into summer’s magic.

~Adrienne Cook

 

USDA announced 110,000 tons of US meal sold to unknown for ‘14/15 shipment

 

USDA announced 107,400 tons of US  corn sold to Mexico for ‘13/14 shipment

 

NOPA February crush report comes out today at 11 am CST. Based on a Reuters poll expecting

  • Crush – average estimate 140.9 MB , range of estimates are 133.6 – 147.5 MB . In January the crush was 156.943 MB . In February 2013 the crush was 136.322 MB
  • Bean oil stocks – average estimate 1.870 billion lbs. , range of estimates are 1.7-2.196 B . In January bean oil stocks were 1.794 B and in February 2013 bean oil stocks were 2.790 B lbs.
  • Meal exports – no estimates are given for meal exports but in January meal exports were 787,961 tons

 

Overnight closes

  • SK down 9 ¼ at 1379 ¼
  • CK down 7 ¾ at 478 ¼
  • WK down 8 ¾ at 678 ½
  • KC WK down 3 ¾ at 747 ¾
  • MWK down 5 at 729
  • SMK down 2.00 at 442.0
  • BOK down 16 at 4213
  • RRK down 5 at 1530.50

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 7-10 lower
  • Corn 6-8 lower
  • Wheat 7-10 lower
  • KC wheat 3-5 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 4-6 lower
  • Meal 1.50-2.50 lower
  • Bean oil 10-20 lower
  • Rice 4-6 lower

 

Dollar, gold,  and stock market higher. Crude and silver lower

 

Nikkei down .35%

Hang Seng down .30%

Shanghai Index up .97%

 

Palm oil down 30.

 

China grain closings – beans down 18, corn down 8, meal down 32, palm oil down 82, and bean oil down 40

 

Negative Chinese crush margins

 

China Feed Mills bought 50,000 tons of Ukraine corn

 

Surveyor SGS estimated Malaysia’s March 1-15th palm oil exports at 468,855 tons down 21% from a month ago

 

Surveyor Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia’s March 1-15th palm oil exports at 480,730 tons down 20.7% from a month ago

 

Reports last week of China canceling or rolling soybean cargoes forward

 

Safras E Mercado said 59% of the Brazilian bean crop has been harvested vs. 52% a week ago vs. 58% a year ago and vs. 46% average

 

Safras e Mercado said 84% of the Mato Grosso bean crop has been harvested vs. 87% a year ago and vs. 74% average

 

Due to political turmoil for more than three months in Ukraine , UCAB said Ukraine could lose about 11.0 MMT of grain in 2014 due to a sharp decrease in planting area caused by a shortage of funds .

 

Good rains in Malaysia over the weekend

 

Rains in Indonesia over the weekend

 

Heavy rains in Argentina over the weekend

 

Mostly dry weather in Brazil over the weekend

 

Forecast for Argentina is mostly dry this week

 

Showers in forecast early this week for southern Brazil

 

80 wheat receipts were canceled Friday afternoon out of CIRM Chicago IL

 

141 soybean receipts were canceled Friday afternoon – 75 out of ADM Hennepin IL and 66 out of ADM Henry IL

 

18 new meal receipts were registered Friday afternoon out of ADM Des Moines IA

 

59 new rice receipts were registered Friday afternoon

 

Deliveries

  • Meal 19 with the date at 3/06
    • House Term stopped 19
  • Bean oil 111 with the date current
  • Rice 95 with the date current
  • Corn 60 with the date current
    • House Term stopped 3
  • KC wheat 38 with the date at 2/27
  • Beans 225 with the date current
    • ADM house issued 141
  • Wheat 94 with the date current
    • ADM House issued 94
  • Mini soybeans 5 with date current

 

Moving  averages

  • CK 200 day 476 ½
  • MWK 200 day 723 ½
  • BOK 200 day 4252

 

Weekly COT supplemental report from Friday. Large spec positions as of March 11. Futures and options combined

  • Wheat short 25,402
  • KC wheat long 11,247
  • Corn long 141,993
  • Beans long 156,519
  • Meal long 33,567
  • Bean oil long 15,859

 

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • Total corn 1,317,113 open, down 1,464
  • Total beans 664,795 open, down 7,606
  • Total meal 311,508 open, down 1,004
  • Total bean oil 298,226 open, down 4,066
  • Total wheat 343,754 open, down 1,809
  • Total KC wheat 133,020 open, up 1,212

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly US export inspection report comes out today at 10 am CST
  • NOPA February crush report comes out today at 11 am CST
  • Weekly Texas crop progress report comes out today at 3 pm CST
  • FOMC 2 day policy meeting begins tomorrow
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • China to auction 878,300 tons of wheat on Wednesday
  • Fed announcement Wednesday at 1 pm CST
  • Informa US acreage estimates come out next week
  • Last trading day for April options is Friday March 21st
  • USDA US planting intentions and quarterly stocks report comes out on Monday, March 31st at 11 am CST