News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

The best and most beautiful things in the world cannot be seen or even touched – they must be felt with the heart.

Helen Keller

 

Today is the last trading day for March futures. March futures expire at noon CST
overnight closes

  • SK up 1 ¼ at 1397 ½
  • CK up a ½ at 485 ½
  • WK up 3 ¼ at 677
  • KC WK up 4 at 740 ¾
  • MWK up 1 ½ at 722
  • SMK up .70 at 442.60
  • BOK down 7 at 4292
  • RRK down 1 at 1521.50

 

overnight volume

  • SK13,000
  • CK 10,000
  • WK 5,269
  • KC WK 455
  • SMK 4,043
  • BOK 10,000

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 1-2 higher
  • Corn steady better
  • Wheat 2-4 higher
  • KC wheat 3-5 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 1-2 higher
  • Meal .50-1.00 higher
  • Bean oil steady to 10 lower
  • Rice steady easier

 

Gold, silver, and crude oil higher. Dollar and stock market lower

 

Nikkei down .100

Hang Seng down .673%

Shanghai Index down .732%

 

Tensions in Ukraine continue

 

Concerns about China economy – China’s central bank called for a halt to certain types of mobile payments

 

Palm oil down 12

 

Chinese grain closings – beans up 15, corn up 12, meal down 13, palm oil down 88, bean oil down 84

TALK yesterday China canceled up to 600,000 tons of South American soybeans for March May shipment due to negative crush margins and bird flu outbreak

 

CNGOIC said China government to stockpile 60 MMT of corn by the end of April. They already bought 54.66 MMT of corn by March 10th  vs. 30.0 MMT in ‘12/13

 

CNGOIC estimated China’s corn imports at 5.5 MMT unchanged from previous and vs. 2.8 MMT a year ago

 

Chinese industry analyst – weekly Chinese crush breakdown

  • For the week March 1st – March 7th total crush volume at 1,158,100 tons down 19.89% from a week ago
  • For the week March 1st – March 7th total crush capacity utilization at 40.78% down 10.13% from a week ago
  • Total ‘13/14 crush volume (Oct 1st – March 7th) at 29,956,838 tons up 19.92% from a year ago
  • Total 2014 crush volume (Jan 1st – March 7th) at 9,887,958 tons up 17.30% from a year ago
  • As of March 7th total imported soybean stocks at 5.2412 MMT up 85,200 tons from a week ago and up 9.7% from a year ago
  • Estimated March bean imports at 5.1191 MMT vs. Feb estimate of 4.6372 MMT
  • Estimated April bean imports at 5.8 MMT
  • Estimated May bean imports at 6.2 MMT
  • Estimated June bean imports at 6.5 MMT

 

Japan bought 126,814 tons of US, Canada, and Australian wheat  – yesterday

 

Oman bought 40K Australian wheat and bought 20K Canadian wheat , bought 20K Argentine barley and bought 20K Argentine corn for May/June shipment – yesterday

 

South Korea MFG bought 60K South American soymeal – yesterday

 

Ukraine State Stats Service said Ukraine Grain Stocks as of March 1 were 16.2 MMT up 23% from a year ago

 

Argentine port workers may strike

 

Allendale estimated US 2014 corn acreage at 92.349 MA vs. USDA Outlook Forum estimate of 92.0 MA and vs. 95.4 MA a year ago

 

Allendale estimated US 2014 bean acreage at 83.212 MA vs. USDA Outlook Forum estimate of 79.5 MA and vs. 76.5 MA a year ago

 

Goldman Sachs estimated US 2014 corn acreage at 93.5 MA

 

Goldman Sachs estimated US 2014 bean acreage at 81.0 MA

 

Wheat Research Institute of India estimated India’s ‘13/14 wheat area at 31.0  MH vs. 29.6 MH a year ago

 

Mostly dry weather in Brazil next couple of days

 

Scattered rains and thunderstorms in forecast for Argentina next couple of days

 

Much needed rains in the forecast for Malaysia

 

May corn 200 day moving average is 477

 

May Minneapolis  wheat 200 day moving average is 724 ½

 

May bean oil 200 day moving average is 4256

 

Deliveries

  • Bean oil 44 with the date at 3/12/14
  • Corn 234 with the date at 3/07/14
    • House Term issued 232
  • Beans 99 with the date current

 

CONAB Brazilian crop estimates from Wednesday

  • ‘13/14 Brazilian bean crop estimated at 85.4 MMT vs. previous estimate of 90.0 MMT  and vs. 81.5 MMT a year ago
  • ‘13/14 Brazilian corn crop estimated at 75.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 75.5 MMT and vs. 81.5 MMT a year ago

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,318,594 open, down 4,095
  • Total beans 672,801 open, up 8,715
  • Total meal 311,961 open, down 162
  • Total bean oil 302,334 open, up 99
  • Total wheat 345,558 open, up 6,650
  • Total KC wheat 131,814 open, up 432

 

Upcoming reports/events

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek come out on Monday with their Malaysian March 1-15th palm oil export estimates
  • Weekly US export inspection report comes out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • NOPA February crush report comes out on Monday at 11 am CST
  • Weekly Texas crop progress report comes out on Monday at 3 pm CST
  • Informa US acreage estimates come out next week
  • FOMC 2 day policy meeting begins Tuesday March 18th
  • Last trading day for April options is Friday March 21st
  • USDA US planting intentions and quarterly stocks report comes out on Monday, March 31st at 11 am CST