News From The Grain Floor

Don’t let the fear of striking out hold you back.

– Babe Ruth

 

No USDA announcements this morning

 

Overnight closes

  • SK up 18 at 1456
  • CK up 4 ¾ at 495 ¾
  • WK up 12 ¼ at 658 ¼
  • KC WK up 9 ½ at 722 ¾
  • MWK up 9 at 704 ¼
  • SMK up 6.10 at 457.00
  • BOK up 30 at 4479
  • RRK up 2.50 at 1531

 

Overnight volume

  • SK 19,374
  • CK 44,790
  • WK 18,370
  • KC WK 1,357
  • SMK 8,758
  • BOK 12,831
  • RRK 21

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 15-20 higher
  • Corn 4-8 higher
  • Wheat 10-15 higher
  • KC wheat 8-12 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 7-10 higher
  • Meal 5.50-6.50 higher
  • Bean oil 25-35 higher
  • Rice 2-4 higher

 

Crude, dollar, and stock market higher. Gold and silver lower.

 

Nikkei up .921%

Hang Seng down .187%

Shanghai Index down .078%

 

US Feb unemployment report came out this morning at 730 am CST

  • Feb nonfarm payrolls at +175K expecting +152K
  • Feb unemployment rate at 6.7% expecting 6.5%
  • Jan nonfarm payrolls revised to +129K from +113K

 

Political turmoil in the Ukraine.

 

Commodity fund money pouring into the market

 

China grain closings – beans down 10, corn up 6, meal up 17, palm oil up 86, and bean oil up 114

 

Palm oil up 21 (17 month highs)

 

Pakistan bought 60,000 tons of canola from Australia for April-May shipment

 

USDA attaché in China . China crop estimates

  • ‘13/14 bean imports estimated at 68.0 MMT vs. USDA official estimate of 69.0 MMT
  • ‘14/15 bean imports estimated at 72.0 MMT
  • ‘14/15 total oilseed production estimated at 57.2 MMT down 2.6% from a year ago
  • ‘14/15 total oilseed consumption estimated at 131.2 MMT vs. ‘13/14 estimate of 128.9 MMT
  • ‘14/15 total oilseed imports estimated at 75.8 MMT
  • ‘14/15 bean crop estimated at 12.0 MMT
  • ‘14/15 soymeal consumption estimated at 55.8 MMT up 5.3% from ‘13/14
  • ‘14/15 bean oil consumption estimated at 13.8 M
  • ‘14/15 rapeseed crop estimated at 14.1 MMT
  • ‘14/15 rapeseed imports estimated at 3.4 MMT

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange – Weekly Argentine crop report

  • Estimated ‘13/14 bean crop at 54.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 53.0 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 crop of 48.5 MMT
  • Corn harvest 2% complete vs. 1.6% a week ago and vs. 8.4% a year ago
  • ‘13/14 Corn crop estimated at 23.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Sunflower harvest 69% complete vs. 56.5% week ago

 

Brazilian Trade Ministry – Brazil’s February exports

  • Beans 2.79 MMT vs. 30,600 tons in January and vs. 959,600 tons in Feb 2013
  • Meal 506,600 tons vs. 901,700 tons in January and vs. 669,700 tons in Feb 2013
  • Bean oil 37,500 tons vs. 65,817 tons in January and vs. 29,200 tons in Feb 2013
  • Corn 1.06 MMT vs. 2.93 MMT tons in January and vs. 2.29 MMT in Feb 2013

 

Reuters article – Brazil ‘13/14 bean sales have slowed over the past few days

 

FranceAgriMer – French weekly crop report

  • 74% of the soft wheat crop is in good to excellent condition unchanged from a week ago and vs. 67% a year ago
  • 71% of the winter barley crop is in good to excellent condition vs. 68% a year ago
  • 61% of the durum wheat crop is in good to excellent condition vs. 62% a week ago and vs. 53% a year ago

 

Vietnam Food Association estimated Vietnam’s March rice exports at 500-550,000 tons up 50% from February

 

New contract highs in May beans overnight of 1459 ¾

 

New contract highs in May meal overnight of 459.20

 

European milling wheat futures at a 9 month high

 

Concerns about dry weather in Malaysia and Indonesia continue

 

Hail and heavy rains damaged rapeseed crops in India over the last 10 days.

 

Heavy rains in the forecast for this weekend in Mato Grosso Brazil. Up to 3 inches with 90% coverage

 

Good rains in forecast this weekend for Argentina 65% coverage

 

16 bean oil receipts canceled yesterday out of Bunge Decatur IN

 

Deliveries

  • Minneapolis wheat 1 with the date at 2/27
    • Term house stopped 1
  • Chicago wheat 30 with the date at 2/27
    • Term house issued 30
  • Bean oil 439 with the date at 3/04
  • Corn 3 with the date of 2/14
    • Term house stopped 3

 

USDA Supply and Demand and World Production report comes out on Monday at 11 am CST .

 

Estimates for Monday’s report

 

US ‘13/14 grain ending stocks estimates

  • Wheat (19 analysts surveyed) – average estimate is .570 BB , range of estimates are .549 – .615 BB. February USDA estimate was .558 BB
  • Corn (20 analysts surveyed) – average estimate is 1.488 BB, range of estimates are 1.431-1.656 BB. February USDA estimate was 1.481 BB
  • Beans (20 analysts surveyed) – average estimate is .141 BB, range of estimates are .130-.150 BB. February USDA estimate was .150 BB

 

World ‘13/14 grain ending stocks estimates

  • Wheat (13 analysts surveyed) – average estimate is 183.65 MMT , range of estimates are 182.10 – 185.00 MMT. February USDA estimate was 183.73 MMT
  • Corn (13 analysts surveyed) – average estimate is 156.27 MMT , range of estimates are 154.80-158.40 MMT. February USDA estimate was 157.30 MMT
  • Beans (13 analysts surveyed) – average estimate is 71.46 MMT, range of estimates are 69.50-72.90 MMT. February USDA estimate was 73.01 MMT

 

South American ‘13/14 crop estimates

  • Argentina corn crop (19 analysts surveyed) – average estimate is 23.35 MMT , range of estimates are 20.80-24.00 MMT. February USDA estimate was 24.00 MMT
  • Argentina bean crop (17 analysts surveyed) – average estimate is 53.5 MMT, range of estimates are 52.7-54.0 MMT. February USDA estimate was 54.0 MMT
  • Brazilian corn crop (19 analysts surveyed) – average estimate is 69.03 MMT , range of estimates are 65.45-70.50 MMT. February USDA estimate was 70.0 MMT
  • Brazilian bean crop (17 analysts surveyed) – average estimate is 88.14 MMT, range of estimates are 86.5-90.0 MMT. February USDA estimate was 90.0 MMT

 

 

Upcoming reports and events

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST
  • Weekly US export inspections come out Monday at 10 am CST
  • USDA supply and demand and crop production report Monday March 10th
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board come out on Monday with their February palm oil data report . Based on a Reuters survey Expecting
    • Palm oil stocks at 1.79 MMT vs. 1.93 MMT in January
    • Palm Oil exports at 1.32 MMT vs. 1.37 MMT in January
    • Palm oil output at 1.31 MMT vs. 1.51 MMT in January
  • Weekly Texas crop conditions report comes out Monday at 3 pm CST
  • CONAB Brazil crop estimates come out on March 12th
  • Last trading day for March futures is Friday March 14th
  • USDA planting intentions and quarterly stocks report comes out March 31st