News From The Grain Floor

“Sometimes you wake up. Sometimes the fall kills you. And sometimes, when you fall, you fly.”

– Neil Gaiman

 

No USDA announcements this morning

 

Overnight closes

  • SK up 11 ½ at 1432
  • CK up ¾ at 482 ¾
  • WK down 3 ¼ at 639 ¼
  • KC WK down 2 ¾ at 707 ½
  • MWK down 1 ¾ at 687
  • SMK up 3.50 at 453.10
  • BOK up 53 at 4393
  • RRK up 1 at 1525

 

Overnight volume

  • SK 14,993
  • CK 15,984
  • WK 5,913
  • KC WK 408
  • SMK 6,152
  • BOK 8,579
  • RRK 45

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 10-15 higher
  • Corn steady better
  • Wheat 3-5 lower
  • KC wheat 2-4 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat steady lower
  • Meal 3-4 higher
  • Bean oil  50-60 higher
  • Rice  steady better

 

Stock market higher. Crude, gold, silver, and dollar lower.

 

Nikkei up 1.592%

Hang Seng up .546%

Shanghai Index up .318%

Most world stock markets higher

 

Weekly US jobless claims down 26K to 323K

 

China grain closings – beans up 6, corn down 5, meal up 8, palm down 2, and bean oil up 24

 

Palm Oil up 33

 

Iraq bought 200K wheat from Canada and Australia

 

South Korea NOFI bought 55K South American meal for June shipment

 

Taiwan bought 83,150 tons of US milling wheat

 

Japan bought  111,779 tons of food wheat for April – June shipment . Breakdown

  • 22,471 tons of western white US wheat
  • 27,508 tons of dark northern spring US wheat
  • 61,800 tons of western red spring Canadian wheat

 

USDA attaché in Paraguay estimated ‘13/14 bean crop at 8.1 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 9.3 MMT

 

USDA attaché in Paraguay said by mid Feb 75% of the bean harvest has complete. Said early planted bean yields were above average but later planted beans showed damage from extreme heat

 

USDA attaché in Paraguay estimated ‘13/14 bean exports at 3.6 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 5.8 MMT

 

USDA attaché in Paraguay estimated ‘14/15 bean crop at 8.7 MMT and ‘14/15 bean exports at 4.1 MMT

 

USDA attaché in Argentina estimated ‘13/14 bean crop at 54.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

USDA attaché in Argentina estimated ‘13/14 bean area at 20.3 MH unchanged from previous estimate

 

USDA attaché in Argentina estimated ‘13/14 sunflower crop at 2.3 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

USDA attaché in Argentina estimated ‘13/14 sunflower area at 1.45 MH unchanged from previous estimate

 

Mostly favorable weather in Argentina

 

Dry forecast next few days in Brazil

 

Dry in Malaysia and Indonesia

 

Dry in Australia

 

29 corn receipts canceled out of Elburn Coop Morris IL

 

99 new ethanol receipts registered out of ADM Argo IL

 

1 bean oil receipt canceled out of Bunge Decatur IN

 

Weekly US export sales report

  • Wheat – ‘13/14 556,100 ‘14/15 44,400 (expecting 350-650K)
  • Corn – ‘13/14 1.52 M tons ‘14/15 164,500 (expecting 600K – 1.5 M)
  • Beans – ‘13/14 772,700 tons `14/15 256,700 (expecting 750-1.2 M)
  • Meal – ‘13/14 232,800 tons ‘14/15 35,800 (expecting 150 – 300K)
  • Bean oil – ‘13/14 16,900 tons (expecting 0-30K)

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 556,100 MT for delivery during the 2013/2014 marketing year were up 52 percent from the previous week and 10 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (213,100 MT), Brazil (93,100 MT), unknown destinations (63,600 MT), China (60,000 MT), Taiwan (53,400 MT), Chile (38,500 MT), and Vietnam (30,900 MT, including 28,600 MT switched from unknown destinations). Decreases were reported for Egypt (52,300 MT) and Nigeria (49,300 MT). Net sales of 44,400 MT for 2014/2015 were reported for the Philippines (30,000 MT), Venezuela (6,500 MT), Mexico (5,000 MT), and Colombia (2,900 MT). Exports of 633,000 MT were up 16 percent from the previous week and 59 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Brazil (88,600 MT), the Philippines (68,800 MT), Egypt (57,800 MT), Taiwan (53,400 MT), and Mexico (48,200 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 1,518,000 MT for 2013/2014 were up 81 percent from the previous week and 35 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (437,400 MT), Japan (342,400 MT, including 89,100 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,500 MT), unknown destinations (207,100 MT), Colombia (179,400 MT), South Korea (134,300 MT, including 65,000 MT switched from China), and Taiwan (75,900 MT). Decreases were reported for China (71,500 MT), Spain (55,000 MT), and the French West Indies (9,000 MT). Net sales of 164,500 MT for 2014/2015 were reported for Japan. Exports of 1,138,100 MT were up 33 percent from the previous week and 38 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were South Korea (256,700 MT), Mexico (224,300 MT), Japan (190,600 MT), Egypt (135,000 MT), and Peru (83,300 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 772,700 MT for 2013/2014 were up noticeably from the previous week and the prior 4-week average. Increases reported for unknown destinations (469,100 MT), Mexico (197,600 MT), Indonesia (82,100 MT, including 72,600 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 9,400 MT), Germany (74,500 MT), and Spain (63,100 MT, including 65,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,900 MT), were partially offset by decreases for China (268,300 MT). Net sales of 256,700 MT for 2014/2015 were reported primarily for China (183,000 MT), Egypt (60,000 MT), and Spain (55,000 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (60,000 MT). Exports of 1,173,600 MT were down 35 percent from the previous week and 21 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (645,000 MT), Indonesia (135,700 MT), Mexico (77,700 MT), Germany (74,500 MT), and Spain (63,100 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 232,800 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and 44 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (84,700 MT), Latvia (25,600 MT, including 24,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Venezuela (25,000 MT), Canada (22,100 MT), Poland (16,000 MT, switched from unknown destinations), and Guatemala (14,800 MT, including 4,000 MT switched from unknown destinations). Decreases were reported for the French West Indies (4,200 MT). Net sales of 35,800 MT for 2014/2015 were reported for Mexico (27,300 MT) and Canada (8,500 MT). Exports of 334,100 MT were up 21 percent from the previous week and 23 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Vietnam (50,000 MT), the Philippines (49,600 MT), Thailand (49,100 MT), Mexico (37,400 MT), Venezuela (32,000 MT), and Canada (30,700 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 16,900 MT for 2013/2014 were up noticeably from the previous week, but down 27 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Canada (14,700 MT), the Dominican Republic (2,200 MT, including 1,900 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (900 MT), and Peru (700 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (1,900 MT). Exports of 79,300 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (35,000 MT), Peru (22,800 MT), the Dominican Republic (11,900 MT), and Hong Kong (6,100 MT).

 

Deliveries

  • Minneapolis wheat 107 with the date at 2/27
    • House Term stopped 107
  • Corn 225 with the date at 2/14
    • House Term stopped 218
  • Ethanol 99 with the date at 3/04
  • Rice 1 with the date at 2/27
  • Bean oil 213 with the date at 3/03
  • No Chicago wheat , KC wheat, or soybeans

 

Moving averages

  • CK 200 day at 479
  • WK 100 day at 632 ½
  • KC WK 200 day 709 ½

 

USDA Supply and Demand and World Production report comes out on Monday at 11 am CST .

 

Estimates for Monday’s report

 

US ‘13/14 grain ending stocks estimates

  • Wheat (19 analysts surveyed) – average estimate is .570 BB , range of estimates are .549 – .615 BB. February USDA estimate was .558 BB
  • Corn (20 analysts surveyed) – average estimate is 1.488 BB, range of estimates are 1.431-1.656 BB. February USDA estimate was 1.481 BB
  • Beans (20 analysts surveyed) – average estimate is .141 BB, range of estimates are .130-.150 BB. February USDA estimate was .150 BB

 

World ‘13/14 grain ending stocks estimates

  • Wheat (13 analysts surveyed) – average estimate is 183.65 MMT , range of estimates are 182.10 – 185.00 MMT. February USDA estimate was 183.73 MMT
  • Corn (13 analysts surveyed) – average estimate is 156.27 MMT , range of estimates are 154.80-158.40 MMT. February USDA estimate was 157.30 MMT
  • Beans (13 analysts surveyed) – average estimate is 71.46 MMT, range of estimates are 69.50-72.90 MMT. February USDA estimate was 73.01 MMT

 

South American ‘13/14 crop estimates

  • Argentina corn crop (19 analysts surveyed) – average estimate is 23.35 MMT , range of estimates are 20.80-24.00 MMT. February USDA estimate was 24.00 MMT
  • Argentina bean crop (17 analysts surveyed) – average estimate is 53.5 MMT, range of estimates are 52.7-54.0 MMT. February USDA estimate was 54.0 MMT
  • Brazilian corn crop (19 analysts surveyed) – average estimate is 69.03 MMT , range of estimates are 65.45-70.50 MMT. February USDA estimate was 70.0 MMT
  • Brazilian bean crop (17 analysts surveyed) – average estimate is 88.14 MMT, range of estimates are 86.5-90.0 MMT. February USDA estimate was 90.0 MMT

 

 

Upcoming reports and events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST expecting down 138 BCF
  • Tomorrow February US unemployment comes out at 730 am CST
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST
  • USDA supply and demand and crop production report Monday March 10th
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board come out on Monday with their February palm oil data report . Based on a Reuters survey Expecting
    • Palm oil stocks at 1.79 MMT vs. 1.93 MMT in January
    • Palm Oil exports at 1.32 MMT vs. 1.37 MMT in January
    • Palm oil output at 1.31 MMT vs. 1.51 MMT in January
  • CONAB Brazil crop estimates come out on March 12th
  • USDA planting intentions and quarterly stocks report comes out March 31st