News From The Grain Floor

Good morning.

 

Always do your best. What you plant now, you will harvest later.

– Og Mandino

 

USDA announced China canceled 245,000 US beans for ‘13/14 delivery 

 

Overnight closes

  • SK down 2 ½ at 1420 ½
  • CK down 2 ¾ at 481 ½
  • WK down 1 at 642 ½
  • KC WK up a ¼ at 709 ¾
  • MWK down a ¼ at 685 ¼
  • SMK down 1.40 at 448.30
  • BOK down 26 at 4345
  • RRK down .50 at 1542.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SK 9,249
  • CK 30,292
  • WK 9,257
  • KC WK 549
  • SMK 6,467
  • BOK 12,180
  • RRK 12

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 2-4 lower
  • Corn 2-4 lower
  • Wheat 1-3 lower
  • KC wheat steady mixed
  • Minneapolis wheat steady mixed
  • Meal 1.00-2.00 lower
  • Bean oil  20-30 lower
  • Rice steady lower

 

Crude lower. Dollar, gold, silver, and stock market higher.

 

Nikkei up 1.20%

Hang Send down .3%

Shanghai Index down .9%

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday

  • Crude a build of 1.2 MB expecting 1.3 MB
  • Gas a draw of 1.2 MB as expected
  • Distillates a draw of 270,000 expecting a draw of 1.2 MB

 

China grain closings – beans up 19, corn up 3, meal up 11, palm oil up 52, bean oil up 104

 

Palm oil up 31

 

Hearing China was seeking South American beans for Oct – Nov shipment yesterday

 

Today was the last day of the palm oil conference in Malaysia.

  • Thomas Mielke from Oil World
    • Global palm oil exports to fall in 2014 for the first time in 16 years
    • 2014 Indonesia palm oil production estimated at 30.0  MMT
    • 2014 Malaysia palm oil production estimated at 19.6 MMT
    • 2014 global palm oil production estimated at 58.5 MMT
    • ‘13/14 global oil seeds production estimated at 489.85 MMT vs. 466.19 MMT a year ago
  • James Fry
    • Malaysian palm oil stocks to fall below 1.5 MMT by June
    • Indonesia palm oil stocks to fall below 1.8 MMT by June
  • Dorab Mistry
    • Palm oil prices to trade between 2,600-2,900 ringgits between July and October
    • ‘13/14 global biodiesel demand to increase 3 MMT from ‘12/13
    • Estimated Indonesia 2014 palm oil production at 30.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. 27.5 MMT a year ago
    • Estimated Malaysia palm oil production at 19.5-19.7 MMT up 2.5% from a year ago
    • Global edible oils demand to rise 6.5 MMT this year
    • ‘13/14 India edible oil imports estimated at 11.06 MMT vs. 10.67 MMT a year ago

 

Algeria bought 300-350K tons of optional origin wheat (possibly from France) for May- June shipment

 

Algeria seeks 50K tons of durum wheat for May shipment

 

Tunisia seeks 92K milling wheat optional origin for April- May shipment

 

Lebanon seeks 25K optional origin milling wheat for April shipment

 

India’s MMTC tenders to sell 80K tons of wheat for March-April shipment

 

India’s PEC tenders to sell 70K tons of wheat for March –April shipment

 

Japan seeks 24,780 tons of feed wheat and 48,990 tons of barley via SBS tender for March-June shipment

 

China NDRC to raise grain production capacity by 50 MMT

 

NDRC estimated China’s 2014 grain production at 550+ MMT

 

NDRC said they will continue to stockpile corn, canola seeds, and sugar

 

China vice Ag Min said it could approve MIR162 GMO corn in the first half of this year

 

Favorable Argentine weather forecast

 

Dry weather forecast for Brazil for next few days

 

Concerns about dry weather in Indonesia and Malaysia

 

6 bean oil receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon

  • 2 out of Bunge Decatur IN
  • 2 out of Bunge Danville IL
  • 2 out of Cargill Iowa Falls IA

 

Deliveries

  • Minneapolis wheat 41 with the date at 2/27/14
    • House Term stopped 39
    • JP Morgan customer issued 30
  • Meal 1 with the date at 1/13/14
  • Rice 1 with the date at 2/28
  • Bean oil 225 with the date at 2/28
    • Customer JP Morgan issued 14
  • Corn 304 with the date at 12/16/13
    • Term house stopped 66

 

Moving averages

  • CK 200 day 479 ½
  • KC WK 200 day 709 ¾
  • MWK 100 day 679

 

Informa estimates from yesterday

  • Brazil ‘13/14 bean crop estimated at 88.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 89.7 MMT
  • Brazil ‘13/14 corn crop estimated at  65.45 MMT vs. previous estimate of 66.55 MMT
  • Argentina’s ‘13/14 bean crop estimated at 54.0  MMT vs. previous estimate of 57.0 MMT
  • Argentina’s ‘13/14 corn crop estimated at 22.6  MMT vs. previous estimate of 22.6 MMT
  • India’s 2014 wheat crop estimated at 108.0 MMT (record) vs. previous estimate of 99.0 MMT
  • Morocco’s 2014 wheat crop estimated at 4.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.0 MMT
  • Pakistan 2014 wheat crop estimated at 23.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 24.5 MMT

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CH 11,533 open, down 5,879
  • CK 572,340 open, up 11,371
  • Total corn 1,301,695 open, up 13,313
  • SH 5,713 open, down 1,994
  • SK 333,338 open, down 3,337
  • Total beans 668,238 open, down 4,209
  • SMH 3,900 open, down 1,997
  • SMK 168,589 open, up 1,340
  • Total meal 310,149 open, up 1,915
  • BOH 2,022 open, down 1,075
  • BOK 153,590 open, up 41
  • Total bean oil 301,820 open , up 1,859
  • WH 481 open, down 347
  • WK 188,929 open, down 4,784
  • Total wheat 346,460 open, down 4,323
  • KC WH 141 open, down 141
  • KC WK 71,970 open, down 449
  • Total KC wheat 129,587 open, down 330

 

Upcoming reports and events

  • Weekly DOE numbers come out today at 930 am CST. Expecting
    • Crude a build of 1.0 MB
    • Gas a draw of 1.2 MB
    • Distillates a draw of 1.1 MB
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out today at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Friday February US unemployment comes out at 730 am CST
  • USDA supply and demand and crop production report Monday March 10th
  • CONAB Brazil crop estimates come out on March 12th
  • USDA planting intentions and quarterly stocks report comes out March 31st