News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

I’d rather regret the things I’ve done than regret the things I haven’t done.

– Lucille Ball

 

No  USDA announcements this morning

 

Informa comes out today at 1030 am CST with world production and US winter wheat estimates.

 

Overnight closes

  • SK up 4 at 1413 ¼
  • CK down 4 ¼ at 466 ¼
  • WK down 10 ¼ at 621 ¼
  • KC WK down 7 ¾ at 692 ¼
  • MWK down 5 ½ at 667
  • SMK up 1.30 at 451.80
  • BOK down 17 at 4221
  • RRK down 2 at 1536.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SK 11,064
  • CK 20,294
  • WK 12,834
  • KC WK 618
  • SMK 4,541
  • BOK 8,206
  • RRK 36

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 3-5 higher
  • Corn 3-5 lower
  • Wheat 9-11 lower
  • KC wheat 6-8 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 4-6 lower
  • Meal 1-2 higher
  • Bean oil 10-20 lower
  • Rice 1-3 lower

 

Crude, gold, silver, and dollar lower. Stock market higher

 

Nikkei up .473%

Hang Seng up .698%

Shanghai Index down .183%

 

Tensions in Russia and the Ukraine easing. Russian president ordered troops to return to base.

 

Carnival holiday in South America continues

 

China grain closings – beans down 19, corn up 3, meal down 19, palm oil down 14, and bean oil up 36

 

Palm oil down 1

 

Palm Oil conference in Malaysia continues , ends tomorrow

 

TALK yesterday China trying to wash out South American bean cargoes , or push April –May shipments to June – July .

 

Japan seeks 111,779 tons of food wheat for April – June shipment . Breakdown

  • 22,471 tons of western white US wheat
  • 27,508 tons of dark northern spring US wheat
  • 61,800 tons of western red spring Canadian wheat

 

Algeria seeks 50,000+ tons of optional origin milling wheat for May shipment

 

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine exported 2.82 MMT of grain in Feb up 1.3% from a month ago

 

Ukraine Ag Min estimated May – June grain exports at 8.7 MMT

 

ABARES ‘14/15 Australian crop estimates

  • Wheat crop estimated at 24.795 MMT vs. 27.013 MMT a year ago
  • Canola crop estimated at 2.948 MMT vs. 3.548 MMT a year ago

 

300 new corn receipts registered by Cargill Burns Harbor IN

 

77 new bean receipts registered by Cargill – IL

 

35 bean oil receipts canceled by Bunge Decatur IN

 

Deliveries

  • Beans 94 with the date at 2/05/14
    • Customer JP Morgan issued 77
  • Corn 304 with the date at 12/16/13
    • Customer JP Morgan issued 300
  • Rice 11 with the date at 2/27/14
  • Bean oil 711 with the date at 2/28/14
    • Customer JP Morgan issued 19
  • Meal 1 with the date at 1/10/14
  • Minneapolis wheat 14 with the date at 2/27/14
  • No Chicago or KC wheat

 

Chinese industry analysts – Chinese weekly crush breakdown

  • For the week Feb 22-28th total crush volume at 1,445,800 tons down 5.58% from a week ago
  • For the week Feb 22-28th total crush capacity utilization at 50.91% down 3.02% from a week ago
  • Total ‘13/14 crush volume (Oct 1st , 2013 – Feb 28, 2014) at 28,798,738 tons up 20.8% from a week ago
  • Total 2014 crush volume (Jan 1st – Feb 28, 2014) at 10,441,220 tons up 19.36%
  • As of Feb 28th total Chinese bean stocks at 5.156 MMT up 55,600 tons from a week ago and up .11% from a year ago
  • Estimated Feb bean imports at 4.6372 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated March bean imports at 5.4 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated April bean imports at 5.6 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated May bean imports at 6.2 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Analyst estimated 2014 bean imports at 65-69 MMT

 

Safras e Mercado said as of Friday 41% of the Brazilian bean crop has been harvested vs. 37% a year ago and vs. 26% five year average

 

AgRural said as of Friday 39% of the Brazilian bean crop has been harvested vs. 36% a year ago and vs. 31% average

 

AgRural estimated Brazilian bean crop at 87.0 MMT

 

Dry Indonesia and Malaysian weather

 

Mostly favorable Argentine weather

 

Weekly US export inspections report from yesterday

  • Corn 1,044,300 tons expecting 625-775K tons
  • Wheat 609,867 tons expecting 300-425,000 tons
  • Beans 984,181 tons expecting 1.0-1.2 M tons

 

Strategie Grains EU28 ’14/15 oilseed estimates

  • Rapeseed output estimated at 21.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 21.4 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 estimate of 21.1 MMT
  • Sunseed output estimated at 8.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 8.1 MMT and vs. ‘13/14 estimate of 8.8 MMT
  • Bean output estimated at 1.3 MMT unchanged from previous and unchanged from ‘13/14 estimate
  • Rapeseed area estimated at 6.7 MH unchanged from previous estimate and unchanged from ‘13/14 estimate
  • Sunseed area estimated at 4.3 MH vs. previous estimate of 4.4 MH and vs. ‘13/14 estimate of 4.5 MH
  • Soybean area estimated at .5 MH unchanged from previous estimate and unchanged from ‘13/14 estimate
  • Rapeseed yield estimated at 3.21 TPH vs. previous estimate of 3.20 TPH and vs. ‘13/14 estimate of 3.14 TPH
  • Sunseed yield estimated at 1.88 TPH  vs. previous estimate of 1.87 TPH and vs. ‘13/14 estimate of 1.97 TPH

 

Indonesia Stats Agency 2013 Indonesia crop output

  • 2013 rice crop at 71.29 MMT vs. previous estimate of 70.87 MMT
  • 2013 corn crop at 18.51 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • 2013 bean crop at 780,160 tons vs. previous estimate of 807,570 tons

 

Russia’s Ag Min said 2014 spring grains planting started earlier than a year ago. As of yesterday Russian farmers planted grains on 14,700 hectares

 

Ukraine spring grains planting as started also.

 

 

Option players from yesterday

 

Corn:

ABN bot 16,000 Z 400-360 put spreads

MLP bot 2000 Z 560 calls/sold 2000 Z 560 puts/sold 840 CZ

ABN sold 1500 K 465-480 call spreads

FI bot 1500 Z 420 puts/sold 1500 K 430 puts

ICAP bot 1000 K 490 calls/sold 340 CK

ICAP bot 2000 K 470-490 call spreads/sold 400 CK

JPM bot 1800 K 470 calls/sold 1008 CK

 

Beans:

Tenco bot 600 J 1440 calls

FI sold 1000 N 1600 calls

Rand bot 600 K 1380 puts/sold 600 K 1440 calls

Bunge bot 500 J 1400 puts/bot 200 SK

ABN bot 500 J 1440 calls

RJO bot 400 week 1 1450-1480 call spreads

 

Wheat:

JPM sold 1000 K 700 calls

JPM sold 1500 J 620-640 call spreads

JPM bot 500 K 640-700 call spreads

JPM sold 500 J 700 calls

ABN bot 1500 J 660 calls

 

Meal:

Rosenthal sold 500 K 420-380 put spreads

JPM sold 370 V 340 puts

 

Oil:

Tenco bot 1500 K 43 calls

FI sold 500 K 41 ½ calls

ADM sold 300 K 38 ½-43 call spreads

Rosenthal bot 200 J 42 ½ calls

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,288,094 open, up 18,784
  • Total soybeans 672,503 open, down 4,823
  • Total meal 307,893 open, down 4,834
  • Total bean oil 300,275 open, down 1,213
  • Total wheat 350,898 open, down 8,776
  • Total KC wheat 129,983 open, up 1,155

 

Upcoming reports and events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • Weekly DOE numbers come out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Friday February US unemployment comes out at 730 am CST
  • USDA supply and demand and crop production report March 10th
  • CONAB Brazil crop estimates come out on March 12th
  • USDA planting intentions and quarterly stocks report comes out March 31st