News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

Always keep an open mind and a compassionate heart.

– Phil Jackson

 

USDA announced 140,000 tons of corn sold to South Korea for ‘13/14 delivery

 

USDA announced 211,500 tons of corn sold to Japan. 47,000 tons for ‘13/14 shipment and 164,500 tons for ‘14/15 shipment  

 

Overnight closes

  • SK up 13 at 1427
  • CK up 10 ½ at 474
  • WK up 27 at 629 ¼
  • KC WK up 24 ¼ at 698 ¼
  • MWK up 23 at 679 ¼
  • SMK up 3.50 at 461 .20
  • BOK up 53 at 4232
  • RRK  down 7.50 at 1556

 

Overnight volume

  • SK 26,010
  • CK 68,806
  • WK 34,641
  • KCWK 1,956
  • MWK 979
  • SMK 7,252
  • BOK 11,350
  • RRK 116

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 10-15 higher
  • Corn 9-12 higher
  • Wheat 25-30 higher
  • KC wheat 20-25 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 20-25 higher
  • Meal 3.00-4.00 higher
  • Bean oil 50-60 higher
  • Rice 6-8 lower

 

Crude, gold, silver, and dollar higher. Stock market lower

 

Nikkei down 1.272%

Hang Seng down 1.473%

Shanghai Index up .918%

Most world stock markets lower

 

Political turmoil in Ukraine

 

Russia is the world’s biggest oil producer

 

EU Foreign Ministers to hold emergency talks to discuss situation in the Ukraine

 

Today is the beginning of a new month

 

Final February PMIs

  • China’s HSBC at 48.5 vs. flash of 48.3 and vs. Jan final of 49.5
  • Germany at 54.8 expecting 54.7 and vs. Jan final of 56.5.
  • Eurozone at 53.2 expecting 53.0 vs. Jan final of 54.0
  • France at 49.7 expecting 48.5 vs. Jan final of 49.3

 

China grain closings – beans up 4, corn up 13, meal up 25, palm oil up 100, and bean oil up 110

 

Palm oil up 6 (1 ½ year highs)

 

Most of South America on Carnival holiday today through Wednesday

 

Malaysian Palm Oil Conference began today in Kuala Lumpur . Conference ends on Wednesday

 

Black Sea Region exports may be limited due to tensions in Russia and the Ukraine

 

Ukraine is the 5th largest wheat exporter in the world

 

RUMORS on Friday that EPA may approve a larger ethanol mandate

 

Some Chinese ports are at capacity

 

On Friday Safras e Mercado estimated Brazil’s ‘13/14 bean crop at 86.1 MMT vs. previous estimate of 91.8 MMT

 

Canada’s canola crush for the week ending Feb 26 at 132,499 tons up 1.7% from a week ago

 

Canada’s bean crush for the week ending Feb 26 at 34,542 tons down 10.4% from a week ago

 

China analysts said China’s ‘13/14 demand may be unchanged or just slightly higher from ‘12/13 due to bird flu impact

 

China has rejected 887,000 tons of US corn since November due to unapproved GMO strain

 

Egypt’s new supplies minister to reconsider allowing French wheat imports and Egypt rice exports

 

Kazakhstan exported 6.05 MMT of grain by rail between July 1st – Feb 28th vs. 4.82 MMT a year ago

 

North Dakota confirmed a case of the deadly pig virus PEDV last week

 

60 new rice receipts registered Friday afternoon

 

Concerns about winterkill for US wheat.

 

Freezing temps in the Midwest today through Thursday. Snow over the weekend .

 

Dry weather in Indonesia and Malaysia

 

Favorable Argentina weather

 

Brazil scattered showers and cooler temps

 

Deliveries

  • Minneapolis wheat , Chicago wheat, and KC wheat 0
  • Meal 1 with the date at 9/30/13
  • Rice 122 with the date at 2/25/14
  • Corn 4 with the date at 7/17/13
  • Beans 17 with the date of 1/2/14
  • Bean oil 1,042 with the date current
    • House Bunge stopped 202
    • House Term stopped 300
    • Customer JP Morgan stopped 102

 

Moving averages

  • CK 200 day 480
  • WK 100 day 634 ½
  • KC WK 100 day 683
  • BOK 200 day 4277

 

Weekly COT supplemental report from Friday. Large spec positions as of Feb 25th futures and options combined

  • Wheat short 54,669
  • KC wheat long 2,651
  • Corn long 37,065
  • Beans long 179,619
  • Meal long 42,579
  • Bean oil short 24,368

 

Upcoming reports and events

  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out today at 10 am CST
  • Winter wheat crop ratings comes out today at 3 pm CST
  • ABARES Australian crop estimates come out tomorrow
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • Friday February US unemployment comes out at 730 am CST
  • USDA supply and demand and crop production report March 10th
  • CONAB Brazil crop estimates come out on March 12th
  • USDA planting intentions and quarterly stocks report comes out March 31st