News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

Wonder rather than doubt is the root of all knowledge.

– Abraham Joshua Heschel

 

USDA announced 120,000 tons of optional origin beans sold to Egypt for ‘14/15 shipment

 

USDA announced 101,600 tons of corn sold to unknown for ‘13/14 delivery

 

Today is month end

 

Today is first notice day for March futures. Deliveries were

  • Meal one with the date at 7/26/13 (expecting 0)
  • Corn 4 (expecting 0)
  • Beans 17 with the date at 12/20/13 (expecting 0)
  • Wheat 0 (expecting 0-350)
  • KC Wheat 0 (expecting 0-140)
  • Minneapolis wheat 0 as expected
  • Bean oil 3,742 with the date current (expecting 500-2,000)
    • House Bunge stopped 27
    • House Term stopped 972
    • House ADM issued 2,071
  • Rice 93 with the date at 2/07/14

 

Overnight closes

  • SK  up 4 ¼ at 1394 ¼ – about 720 am CST this morning 1,500 May beans were bought over yesterday’s settlement
  • CK up 1 at 455 ½
  • WK up 5 ¾ at 595
  • KC WK up 2 ¾ at 668 ¼
  • MWK up 7 ½ at 650 ¾
  • SMK up .60 at 452.20
  • BOK up 25 at 4140
  • RRK up 5 at 1573

 

Overnight volume

  • SK 20,698
  • CK 11,227
  • WK 9,832
  • KC WK 1,076
  • MWK 270
  • SMK 6,771
  • BOK 14,079
  • RRK 23

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 3-5 higher
  • Corn steady to 1 higher
  • Wheat 5-7 higher
  • KC wheat 2-4 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 6-8 higher
  • Meal .50-1.00 higher
  • Bean oil 20-30 higher
  • Rice  4-6 higher

 

Crude, gold, silver, dollar, and stock market slightly lower.

 

Nikkei down .550%

Hang Seng up .038%

Shanghai Index up .436%

 

Palm oil higher

 

China grain closings – beans down 45, corn down 5, meal down 36, palm oil down 92, bean oil down 94.

 

Intertek estimated Feb Malaysia palm oil exports at 1,244,101 tons down 2.48%

 

SGS estimated Feb Malaysia palm oil exports at 1,242,066 tons down 2.1%

 

TALK China bought 16 South American bean cargoes this week

 

TALK from yesterday – Large port in northern China stopped unloading soybeans from ships after running out of capacity at its storage facilities

 

Israel bought 60K optional origin corn (possibly Black Sea area) for May June shipment

 

Thailand to sell 400K tons of rice from reserves to China

 

Algeria bought 50,000 tons of Argentina barley for March shipment

 

Based on a Bloomberg survey China’s 2014 palm oil imports estimated at 6.1 MMT up 2% from 2013.

 

Solvent Extractors Association of India estimated ‘13/14 rapeseed crop at 7.6 MMT up 11% from a year ago

 

IGC global crop estimates

  • ‘13/14 wheat crop at 708.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 707.0 MMT
  • ‘13/14 Australian wheat crop at 27.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 26.2 MMT
  • ‘13/14 Brazilian wheat crop at 5.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 4.8 MMT
  • ‘13/14 Kazakhstan wheat crop estimated at 13.9 MMT  vs. previous estimate of 14.6 MMT
  • ‘13/14 corn crop at 959.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • ‘13/14 corn consumption estimated at 932.0 MMT vs. previous of 928.0 MMT
  • ‘14/15 wheat crop at 696.0 MMT
  • ‘14/15 wheat consumption estimated at 698.0 MMT
  • ‘14/15 corn crop down 1% from ‘13/14 estimate

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange weekly Argentina crop progress report

  • ‘13/14 bean area estimated at 20.35 MH unchanged from previous estimate
  • ‘13/14 bean crop estimated at 53.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • ‘13/14 corn crop estimated at 23.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • 1.6% of the corn crop has been harvested vs. 1.2% a week ago and vs. 6% a year ago
  • ‘13/14 sunflower crop estimated at 2.3 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • 28.2% of the sunflower crop has been harvested vs. 25.2% a week ago and vs. 35.9% a year ago

 

CEC estimated South Africa’s 2014 corn crop at 12.403 MMT (expecting 12.28 MMT) vs. previous estimate of 11.69 MMT

 

MENA said Egypt wheat stocks will last until June 2nd

 

From Brazilian contact

State of Rondonia:

As a consequence of a 18.55 m overflow on Madeira River (highest level in history) recorded on 26th Feb, no more soybean parcels from Mato Grosso are being received;

Their public port is used to flow Mato Grosso’s domestic bean production into that Amazon area;

Locals are being affected, as well as the access to state of Acre state is now interrupted;

Civil defense forecasts water level to reach 19.10 m so traffic of trucks along Highway BR-364 may be closed and also barges convoy (the only access routes to state of Acre);

Emergency state that has not yet been declared would call for state of Acre trading basic products (example wheat) with Peru (nearest bordering country).

 

This is one more example of climatic bottleneck in Brazil.

 

Dry weather in Argentina next 5-7 days

 

Scattered showers and normal temps in Brazil

 

Heavy rains and hail storms in India rapeseed areas over the last couple of days

 

Dry in Malaysia and Indonesia

 

Midwest extremely cold next few days snow in forecast this weekend

 

May wheat 50 day moving average is 593 ¼

 

Yesterday ADM bear spread about 2,500 SN –SX between 206-217. On Wednesday they did about 1,500 SN-SX

 

May meal made new contract highs yesterday of 472.90

 

May beans made new contract highs yesterday of 1445 ½

 

17 new bean receipts were registered by CIRM Chicago IL

 

100 new bean oil receipts were registered by South Dakota Soybean Processors Volga SD

 

93 new rice receipts were registered yesterday

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CH 39,288 open, down 53,436
  • CK 558,297 open, up 6,711
  • Total corn 1,276,645 open, down 52,841
  • SH 10,741 open, down 4,647
  • SK 171,556 open, up 1,225
  • Total beans 678,373 open, down 14,471
  • SMH 10,741 open, down 4,647
  • SMK 171,556 open, up 1,225
  • Total meal 313,829 open, up 2,592
  • BOH 8,860 open, down 6,849
  • BOK 157,112 open, up 3,366
  • Total bean oil 306,439 open, down 435
  • WH 2,714 open, down 6,391
  • WK 202,177 open, up 2,660
  • Total wheat 362,622 open, down 3,984
  • KC WH 1,396 open, down 4,217
  • KC WK 72,751 open, up 1,077
  • Total wheat 130,210 open, down 1,766

 

Upcoming reports and events

  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST
  • Carnival Holiday in most of South America Monday –Wednesday
  • Bursa Malaysia Palm oils conference in Kuala Lumpur March  3rd – 5th
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • Weekly Texas crop ratings report comes out Monday afternoon
  • ABARES Australian crop estimates come out on Tuesday
  • Friday March 7th February US unemployment comes out at 730 am CST
  • USDA supply and demand and crop production report March 10th
  • CONAB Brazil crop estimates come out on March 12th
  • USDA planting intentions and quarterly stocks report comes out March 31st