News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

Always do your best. What you plant now, you will harvest later.

Og Mandino

 

USDA announced 101,600 tons of US corn sold to unknown for ‘13/14 shipment

 

Overnight closes

  • SK down 4 ¼ at 1383
  • CK down 1 at 460 ¼
  • WK down 2 ¼ at 615 ¾
  • KC WK down 2 at 689
  • MWK down 1 at 661
  • SMK down 4.10 at 449.60
  • BOK up 51 at 4136
  • RRK down 1 at 1575

 

Overnight volume

  • SK 15,631
  • CK 12,273
  • WK 7,753
  • KC WK 753
  • MWK 124
  • SMK 7,012
  • BOK 15,183
  • RRK 127

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 3-5 lower
  • Corn steady lower
  • Wheat 1-3 lower
  • KC wheat 1-3 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat steady lower
  • Meal 3.50-4.50 lower
  • Bean oil  45-55 higher
  • Rice steady easier

 

Gold and silver lower. Crude, dollar, and stock market higher.

 

Nikkei down .536%

Hang Seng up .539%

Shanghai Index up .349%

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday

  • Crude a build of 822,000 expecting 1.2 M
  • Gas a draw of 314,000 expecting a draw of 1.0 M
  • Distillates a draw of 693,000 expecting draw of 1.2 M

 

China grain closes – beans down 10, corn down 1, May meal down 18, Sept meal up 13 (open interest is almost the same) palm oil down 30 bean oil down 40

 

Analysts said Malaysia Feb ending stocks may fall to 1.83 MMT vs. Jan ending stocks of 1.93 MMT

 

Analysts said Feb Malaysia production may fall 12% in February

 

Town of Sorriso Mato Grosso declare state of emergency due to excessive rains

 

Some talk China port stocks are close to capacity

 

Negative crushing margins in China

 

Chinese industry analysts said current soymeal demand in China very low

 

Taiwan bought 60,000 tons of US corn for April/May shipment

 

South Korea seeks 57,114 tons of rice for June –July shipment any origin

 

Japan received no bids for SBS tender for 120K feed wheat and 200K feed barley for June shipment.

 

Japan seeks 120K feed wheat and 200K feed barley via SBS tender for June shipment

 

Malaysia seeks 300,000 tons of rice from Thailand Vietnam and Pakistan

 

Iraq bought 90,000 rice from Argentina and Uruguay

 

Parana state government said 2.0 MMT of bean have been lost due to drought and hot weather in January and February . Estimated Parana bean crop at 14.47 MMT vs. previous estimate of 16.5 MMT

 

Deral estimated Parana’s first corn crop at 5.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.62 MMT

 

Deral said Parana’s second corn crop planting has been delayed due to rains

 

Some analysts think the 568K tons of old crop US beans sold to unknown yesterday was Indonesia

 

Tight US old crop bean supplies

 

Bangladesh government to buy 400,000 tons of local rice for government reserves

 

USDA attaché in Saudi Arabia estimated ‘13/14 wheat imports at 3.03 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 2.7 MMT

 

USDA attaché in Saudi Arabia estimated ‘14/15 wheat imports at 3.1 MMT

 

USDA attaché in Saudi Arabia estimated ‘13/14 wheat crop at 500-600K tons

 

Kazakhstan grain exports by rail between July 1st – Feb 20th at 5.76 MMT vs. 4.63 MMT a year ago

 

Argentina mostly dry and warm next 5-7 days

 

South and Central Brazil rains and thunderstorms with some flooding . Northern Brazil less rains

 

Dry in Malaysia and Indonesia

 

Some winterkill concerns in US wheat areas

 

Bitter cold temps in Midwest this week. Snow in forecast for the weekend

 

Ice jams along parts of the IL river

 

Oats made another all-time high overnight of 522

 

May KC 100 day moving average is 685 ¼

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CH 129,816 open, down 33,458
  • CK 532,408 open, up 14,218
  • Total corn 1,343,758 open, down 17,653
  • SH 52,210 open, down 15,856
  • SK 338,097 open, up 16,921
  • Total beans 705,019 open, up 4,039
  • SMH 21,624 open, down 11,108
  • SMK 169,308 open, up 1,605
  • Total meal 312,545 open, down 6,152
  • BOH 22,007 open, down 9,489
  • BOK 149,200 open, down 1,836
  • Total bean oil 304,560 open, down 11,106
  • WH 18,158 open, down 10,672
  • WK 199,835 open, down 1,842
  • Total wheat 376,331 open, down 13,753
  • KC WH 10,714 open, down 6,694
  • KC WK 70,779 open, up 2,692
  • Total KC wheat 136,146 open, down 3,255

 

Tomorrow is position day for March futures. Traders should be out of long positions by tomorrow’s close or risk delivery – Friday is first notice day. As of yesterday , receipts registered are

  • Wheat = 354
  • Oats = 0
  • Corn = 33
  • Ethanol = 0
  • DDGs = 0
  • Beans = 0
  • Bean oil = 11,622
  • Meal = 1
  • Rice = 187
  • KC wheat = 140

 

Upcoming reports and events

  • Weekly DOE #s come out today at 930 am CST. Expecting
    • Crude build of 800,000
    • Gas a draw of 1.0 M
    • Distillates a draw of 1.1 M
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Position day for March futures is tomorrow . Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery
  • SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s February palm oil exports on Friday
  • First Notice Day for March futures is Friday
  • Month end is Friday
  • Bursa Malaysia Palm oils conference in Kuala Lumpur March  3rd – 5th