News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

Some people will never learn anything because they understand everything too soon.

Alexander Pope

 

USDA announced Egypt canceled 110,000 SRW wheat for ‘13/14 shipment

 

USDA announced unknown bought 568,000 tons of old crop US beans – trade is looking at this cautiously

 

Overnight closes

  • SK down 1 at 1374
  • CK up a ¼ at 458
  • WK unchanged at 617
  • KC WK unchanged at 684
  • MWK up a ¼ at 657
  • SMK down .50 at 448.20
  • BOK down 21 at 4082
  • RRK up 2 at 1583

 

Overnight volume

  • SK 20,128
  • CK 10,439
  • WK 8,466
  • KC WK 637
  • MWK 170
  • SMK 5,648
  • BOK 7,769
  • RRK 120

 

Opening calls

  • Beans steady – 2 lower
  • Corn steady mixed
  • Wheat steady mixed
  • KC wheat steady mixed
  • Minneapolis wheat steady mixed
  • Meal steady – 1 lower
  • Bean oil 15-25 lower
  • Rice 1-3 higher

 

Crude, gold, silver, dollar, and stock market lower

 

SGS estimated Malaysia’s Feb 1-25th palm oil exports at 1,051,836 tons up 3.4% from a month ago

 

Intertek estimated Malaysia’s Feb 1-25th palm oil exports at 1,048,311 tons up 1.6% from a month ago

 

Taiwan seeks 83,150 tons of US milling wheat for April –May shipment

 

Israel seeks 56,000 tons of optional origin corn from the Black Sea for May-June shipment

 

South Korea FLC bought 63K tons of US or South American corn for June shipment

 

South Korea FLC bought 60K South American meal for July shipment

 

South Korea FLC canceled tender for 60K feed wheat for August shipment due to high prices

 

Egypt’s Finance Ministry approved financial guarantees of $75.3 million for import of 240,000 tons of wheat

 

Egypt’s Finance Ministry approved financial guarantees of $52.4 million for import of 59,000 edible oils

 

Analysts at a grains conference in Winnipeg estimated 2014 Canada’s wheat planting area at 23.3 MA down 10% from a year ago and vs. Ag Canada’s estimate of 24.7 MA

 

Analysts at  a grains conference in Winnipeg estimated 2014 Canada’s canola plantings area at 21.0 MA up 5% from a year ago and vs. Ag Canada’s estimate of 21.6 MA

 

Texas weekly wheat crop ratings came out yesterday afternoon – Good to excellent = 16% down 1% from a week ago and poor to very poor at 47% up 3% from a week ago

 

All-time high in March oats overnight of 492 ¾ – mostly due to slow rail transportation in Canada

 

Extremely cold weather in the Midwest and Canada next few days.

 

Dry Malaysia and Indonesia

 

Chinese industry analysts – Weekly Chinese crush breakdown

  • For the week Feb 15th – 21st total crush volume at 1,531,400 tons up 29.21% from a week ago
  • For the week Feb 15th – 21st total crush capacity utilization at 53.93% up 12.19% from a week ago
  • Total ‘13/14 crush volume (Oct 1st, 2013 – Feb 21st, 2014) at 27,352,938 tons up 21.07% from a year ago
  • Total 2014 crush volume (Jan 1st, 2014 – Feb 21st , 2014) at 8,995,420 tons up 19.94% from a year ago
  • As of Feb 21st total imported soybean stocks at 5.1004 MMT down 362,800 tons from a week ago and down 4.68% from a year ago
  • Estimated Feb bean imports at 4.6372 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated March bean imports at 5.4 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.0 MMT
  • Estimated April bean imports at 5.6 MMT  unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated May bean imports at 6.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 6.0 MMT
  • Analysts said Chinese bean buyers are negative May and July soybeans due to big harvest out of South America , they are holding the pricing to wait for better opportunity to lock profits .

 

From Brazilian contact about Brazil’s #2 soy exporting port damage

  • Port of Rio Grande:
  • On 23rd, a shipping gantry set up at Tergrasa’s berth suffered damages and remained entangled on MV Hokuetsu Hope 2’s structure on deck.  Repairs to gantry may take 2 weeks. In ’13, Rio Grande handled as follows: soybeans at 8.20 MMT, corn at 999k, meals and pellets at 2.63 MMT and rice at 766k

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CH 163,853 open, down 36,320
  • CK 518,160 open, up 18,078
  • Total corn 1,361,956 open, down 11,176
  • SH 68,416 open, down 14,348
  • SK 321,285 open, up 13,881
  • Total beans 701,468 open, up 5,762
  • SMH 32,853 open, down 9,228
  • SMK 167,764 open, up 5,810
  • Total meal 318,879 open, down 69
  • BOH 31,679 open, down 9,732
  • BOK 151,232 open, up 750
  • Total bean oil 316,064 open, down 8,015
  • WH 30,079 open, down 10,725
  • WK 201,768 open, up 210
  • Total 391,499 open, down 9,177
  • KC WH 17,503 open, down 3,554
  • KC WK 68,152 open, up 2,248
  • Total KC wheat 139,561 open, down 1,147

 

Upcoming reports and events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • Weekly DOE #s come out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Position day for March futures is Thursday Feb 27th . Traders should be out of long positions by the close or risk delivery
  • First Notice Day for March futures is Friday Feb 28th
  • Month end is Friday Feb 28th