News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

Throughout life people will make you mad, disrespect you and treat you bad. Let God deal with the things they do, cause hate in your heart will consume you too.

Will Smith

 

March options expire today on the close. I will send an email shortly with open interest in March options

 

No USDA announcements this morning

 

Overnight closes

  • SH down 2 ½ at 1355 ¾
  • SK down 2 ¼ at 1345 ½
  • CH down 2 at 453 ¾
  • CK down 2 ¼ at 460
  • WH down 2 at 164 ¼
  • WK down 2 at 611 ½
  • KC WH down 1 ¾ at 690
  • KC WK down 2 ¼ at 681 ½
  • MWH up ¾ at 682 ½
  • MWK down 1 ¼ at 659 ¼
  • SMH down .60 at 450.30
  • SMK down .20 at 436.80
  • BOH down 7 at 4050
  • BOK down 10 at 4072
  • RRH down 2 at 1574
  • RRK up 1 at 1549

 

Overnight volume

  • SH 13,048
  • SK 19,738
  • CH 9,770
  • CK 10,424
  • WH 4,877
  • WK 13,048
  • KC WH 122
  • KC WK 178
  • MWH 105
  • MWK 393
  • SMH 3,151
  • SMK 5,676
  • BOH 4,918
  • BOK 6,284
  • RRH 75
  • RRK 72

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 2-4 lower
  • Corn 2-4 lower
  • Wheat 2-4 lower
  • KC wheat 1-3 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat mixed
  • Meal steady lower
  • Bean oil 5-10 lower
  • Rice mixed

 

Crude lower. Gold, silver, stock market, and dollar higher

 

Nikkei up 2.882%

Hang Seng up .778%

Shanghai Index down 1.176%

 

Malaysian palm oil down 30

 

China grain closings – beans up 2, corn up 4, meal down 23, palm oil up 26, bean oil up 6

 

Indonesia Palm Oil Association said Indonesia exported 1.57 MMT of palm oil in Jan down 23% from Dec

 

Hearing China bought 1 Argentine bean cargo for July shipment yesterday

 

Hearing Argentina farmers have sold 300-400K tons of beans per day over the past few days

 

Hearing Brazil has shipped 32 bean cargoes to China so far in February

 

Iraq seeks 10,000 sunflower oil optional origin except from China

 

Japan and Mexico was buying and or seeking US corn for April forward shipment

 

Better than expected yields being reported in Mato Grosso

 

Some reports are saying port delays in Brazil have improved from a year ago

 

Reports that Santos port truck lines are getting bad

 

Frigid weather returns to the Midwest next week . May cause winterkill concerns

 

Rains in Brazil

 

Average rains in Argentina and Brazil over the next 10 days

 

USDA annual Outlook Forum headlines from Reuters- link from the forum is http://www.usda.gov/oce/forum/2014_Speeches/Grains_Oilseeds.pdf

  • 21-Feb-2014 06:59 – USDA REPEATS PROJECTED 2014 U.S. CORN PLANTINGS 92.0 MLN ACRES (PREV 93.5 MLN, 95.4 MLN IN 2013)
  • 21-Feb-2014 07:00 – USDA REPEATS PROJECTED 2014 U.S. SOYBEAN PLANTINGS AT RECORD 79.5 MLN AC (PREV 78.0 MLN, 76.5 MLN IN 2013)
  • 21-Feb-2014 07:01 – USDA REPEATS PROJECTED 2014 U.S. WHEAT SOWINGS 55.5 MLN ACRES (PREV 57.0 MLN, 56.2 MLN IN 2013)
  • 21-Feb-2014 07:02 – USDA PROJECTS 2014 U.S. CORN CROP OF 13.985 BLN BU (PREV 14.260 BLN, 13.925 BLN IN 2013)
  • 21-Feb-2014 07:03 – USDA PROJECTS 2014 U.S. SOYBEAN CROP AT 3.550 BLN BU (PREV 3.480 BLN, 3.289 BLN IN 2013)
  • 21-Feb-2014 07:03 – USDA PROJECTS 2014 U.S. WHEAT CROP 2.160 BLN BU (PREV 2.220 BLN, 2.130 BLN IN 2013)
  • 21-Feb-2014 07:04 – USDA PROJECTS 2014/15 U.S. CORN END STOCKS AT 2.111 BLN BU (PREV 2.607 BLN, 1.481 BLN IN 2013/14)
  • 21-Feb-2014 07:04 – USDA PROJECTS 2014/15 U.S. SOYBEAN END STOCKS AT 285 MLN BU (PREV 203 MLN, 150 MLN IN 2013/14)
  • 21-Feb-2014 07:05 – USDA PROJECTS 2014/15 U.S. WHEAT END STOCKS AT 587 MLN BU (PREV 642 MLN, 558 MLN IN 2013/14)
  • 21-Feb-2014 07:09 – USDA SEES 5 BLN BUSHELS U.S. CORN USED FOR ETHANOL IN 2014/15, UNCHANGED FROM 2013/14
  • 21-Feb-2014 07:10 – USDA SEES U.S. CORN EXPORTS FOR 2014/15 AT 1.550 BLN, DOWN FROM 1.60 BLN IN 13/14; FEED USE AT 5.4 BLN, UP FROM 5.3 BLN
  • 21-Feb-2014 07:11 – USDA SEES U.S. SOYBEAN EXPORTS UP IN 14/15 AT 1.6 BLN BUSHELS (1.5 BLN IN ’13/14); U.S. CRUSH AT 1.725 BLN BU FOR ’14/15 UP FROM 1.70 BLN
  • 21-Feb-2014 07:12 – USDA PROJECTS 2014 U.S. CORN HARVESTED ACRES AT 84.6 MLN AC (PREV 86.1 MLN, 87.7 MLN IN 2013)
  • 21-Feb-2014 07:12 – USDA PROJECTS 2014 U.S. CORN YIELD AT 165.3 BU/AC (PREV 165.6 BU/AC, 158.8 BU/AC IN 2013)
  • 21-Feb-2014 07:13 – USDA PROJECTS 2014 U.S. SOYBEAN HARVEST AREA AT 78.5 MLN AC (PREV 77.0 MLN, 75.9 MLN IN IN 2013 )
  • 21-Feb-2014 07:14 – USDA PROJECTS 2014 U.S. SOYBEAN YIELD AT 45.2 BU/ACRE (PREV 45.2 BU/AC, 43.3 BU/ACRE IN 2013)
  • 21-Feb-2014 07:14 – USDA PROJECTS 2014 U.S. WHEAT HARVEST AREA AT 47.2 MLN AC (PREV 48.5 MLN, 45.2 MLN IN 2013)
  • 21-Feb-2014 07:15 – USDA PROJECTS 2014 U.S. WHEAT YIELD AT 45.8 BU/AC (PREV 45.8 BU/AC, 47.2 BU/AC IN 2013)

 

China’s General Administration of Customs – January imports

  • Wheat – 725,942 tons up 304.75% from a year ago
    • 256,935 tons from the US
  • Barley – 99,447 tons down 18.29% from a year ago
  • Corn 650,904 tons up 64% from a year ago
    • 641,843 tons from the US up 62.87% from a year ago
  • Rice 199,726 tons down 34.29% from a year ago
  • Soybean 5,914,435 tons up 23.65% from a year ago
    • 5,411,454 tons from the US up 20.9% from a year ago
    • 116,065 tons from Brazil
    • 23,884 tons from Argentina
  • Rapeseed 584,568 tons up 52.96% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed oil 86,225 tons down 46.14% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed meal 7,698
  • Soymeal 2,089 tons up 58.76% from a year ago
  • Palm oil 556,523 tons up 17.76% from a year ago
  • DDGs 575,462 tons up 600% from a year ago

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange Weekly Argentine crop report

  • ‘13/14 bean area estimated at 20.35 MH vs. previous estimate of 20.8 MH
  • ‘13/14 bean crop estimated at 53.0 MMT unchanged from previous
  • ‘13/14 corn area estimated at 5.7 MH unchanged from previous estimate
  • ‘13/14 corn crop estimated at 23.5 MMT unchanged from previous and vs. 27.0 MMT in ‘12/13
  • Corn harvest is 1.2% complete vs. 5% a year ago
  • Bean harvest has not begun yet – starts around mid April
  • Sunflower harvest is 25.2% complete vs. 23.0% a week ago and vs. 32.1% a year ago
  • Sunflower crop estimated at 2.3 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

Weekly US export sales report

  • Wheat ‘13/14 424,500 ‘14/15 67,000 (expecting 400-700K)
  • Corn ‘13/14 691,400 (expecting 700K – 1.25 M)
  • Beans ‘13/14 86,300 ‘14/15 749,100 (expecting 100-300K)
  • Meal ‘13/14 227,500 ‘14/15 65,000 (expecting 75-200K)
  • Bean oil ‘13/14 11,700 (expecting 10-50K)

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 424,500 MT for delivery during the 2013/2014 marketing year were down 29 percent from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Japan (148,400 MT), unknown destinations (89,100 MT), the Philippines (78,000 MT), Uruguay (50,000 MT), and Colombia (23,300 MT). Decreases were reported for Egypt (27,000 MT) and Honduras (8,300 MT). Net sales of 67,000 MT for 2014/2015 were reported for unknown destinations (40,000 MT), Nicaragua (24,000 MT), and China (3,000 MT). Exports of 277,300 MT–a marketing-year low–were down 31 percent from the previous week and 29 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Brazil (60,000 MT), Japan (55,800 MT), South Korea (33,000 MT), Mexico (32,500 MT), and Nigeria (30,500 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 691,400 MT for 2013/2014 were down 46 percent from the previous week and 50 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Japan (454,100 MT, including 156,100 MT switched from unknown destinations), Peru (99,300 MT, including 62,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Egypt (74,800 MT, including 18,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Venezuela (46,000 MT, including 5,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Guatemala (30,200 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (127,500 MT), China (18,800 MT), and the Dominican Republic (8,800 MT). Exports of 745,000 MT were down 22 percent from the previous week and 15 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (330,200 MT), Mexico (146,700 MT), Peru (99,300 MT), South Korea (60,600 MT), and Colombia (29,600 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 86,300 MT for 2013/2014–a marketing-year low–resulted as increases for the Netherlands (150,100 MT, including 140,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (131,600 MT), Indonesia (100,200 MT), Japan (87,000 MT, including 27,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Vietnam (13,800 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (268,500 MT) and China (145,600 MT). Net sales of 749,100 MT for 2014/2015 were reported for China (476,000 MT), unknown destinations (180,000 MT), Mexico (69,100 MT), and Japan (24,000 MT). Exports of 1,339,500 MT were down 10 percent from the previous week and 17 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (881,800 MT), the Netherlands (150,100 MT), Vietnam (76,600 MT), Indonesia (74,300 MT), and Mexico (53,500 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 227,500 MT were up noticeably from the previous week and 49 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Canada (80,500 MT), Poland (43,600 MT, including 40,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Ecuador (37,100 MT), Panama (31,200 MT), Spain (19,100 MT), and Mexico (16,300 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (56,400 MT) and Italy (25,000 MT). Net sales of 65,000 MT for 2014/2015 were reported for unknown destinations. Exports of 252,600 MT were down 13 percent from the previous week and 23 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were the Philippines (45,500 MT), Poland (43,600 MT), Spain (39,100 MT), Ecuador (37,100 MT), the Dominican Republic (18,400 MT), and Canada (17,000 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 11,700 MT for 2013/2014 were down 78 percent from the previous week and 56 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Mexico (6,400 MT), the Dominican Republic (4,800 MT), and unknown destinations (1,000 MT). Decreases were reported for Canada (600 MT). Exports of 24,300 MT were down 1 percent from the previous week and 10 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Morocco (15,000 MT), Mexico (4,000 MT), Guatemala (4,000 MT), and Canada (1,100 MT).

 

Moving averages

  • KWH 100 day 688 ¾
  • KWK 100 day 686 ¾
  • MWH 100 day 684
  • BOH 100 day 4006
  • BOK 100 day 4041

 

Option players from yesterday

 

Corn:

RJO bot 1500 N 460 calls/sold 2000 N 470 calls

FI bot 1000 Z 460-400 put spreads/sold 1000 Z 510 calls

ADM bot 1000 H 460 puts

ABN sold 1000 J 430 puts/sold 100 CK

KCG bot 1000 K 440 puts/sold 2000 K 400 puts

JPM bot 1200 H 460 calls/sold 250 CH

 

Beans:

MLP bot 500 X 1100 puts/bot 170 SX

ADM sold 500 J 1330 calls/bot 300 SH

ADM bot 500 J 1360 calls

Tenco bot 400 N 1180 puts

FCS sold 400 K 1200 puts

Bache sold 400 K 1200 puts

ICAP sold 300 short dated H 1140 puts

 

Wheat:

JPM bot 1500 J 620-660 call spreads

JPM bot 500 K 620-640 call spreads

JPM bot 500 K 580-530 put spreads

MLP bot 500 H 610/615/620 call flies

New Edge bot 500 J 615 calls/sold 800 J 600 calls

 

Meal:

FI bot 500 H 450 calls/sold 500 H’15 320 puts

Macquarie bot 250 Z 320 puts

JPM sold 500 N 430 calls

Rosenthal bot 500 K 420-380 put spreads

ABN sold 250 Z 400-450 call spreads/bot 250 Z 300 puts

Bache bot 200 K 440 calls

 

Oil:

FI bot 1000 K 40-37 put spreads/sold 1000 K 43 calls

JPM sold 500 K 42 calls

JPM sold 500 N 39 calls

Bunge sold 370 K 39-41 call spreads

Rosenthal bot 350 N 44 ½ calls/sold 350 N 38 puts

ADM sold 200 H 40 calls

 

Crush information from yesterday

Quotes

OPEN            CLOSE

MCH        84-84.5         79-80.5

MAY        63.5-64          61.5-62.5

JLY           54-54.5           53.5-54

AUG        61.5-63          62-63

SEP          91-93.5          90.5-92

OCT         86-87.5          86.5-87.5

DEC         79-79.5          79-79.5

JAN         72.5-73          72-73.5

 

Players

ABN sold 150 March at 79-79.5

ABN sold 150 July at 54.25-54.75

Tenco sold 100 May at 64

 

Upcoming reports and events

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • Tuesday SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s Feb 1-25th palm oil exports
  • Position day for March futures is Thursday Feb 27th
  • First Notice Day for March futures is Friday Feb 28th
  • Month end is Friday Feb 28th