News From The Grain Floor

 

The past is a great place and I don’t want to erase it or to regret it, but I don’t want to be its prisoner either.”

– Mick Jagger

 

No USDA announcements this morning

 

USDA annual Outlook Forum started this morning. Ends tomorrow. Some headlines from forum

  • 2014 US corn planting area estimated at 92.0 MA vs. baseline projection of 93.5 MA and vs. 95.4 MA a year ago
  • 2014 US bean planting area estimated at 79.5 MA vs. baseline projection of 78.0 MA and vs. 76.5 MA in 2013
  • 2014 US all wheat planting area estimated at 55.5 MA vs. 56.2 MA a year ago
  • 2014 US cotton planting area estimated at 11.5 MA vs. 10.4 MA a year ago
  • ‘14/15 average wheat price estimated at $5.30 vs. ‘13/14 average price of $6.80
  • ’14/15 average corn price estimated at $3.90 vs. ‘13/14 average price of $4.50
  • ‘14/15 average bean price estimated at $9.65 vs. ‘13/14 average price of $12.70

 

Overnight closes

  • SH down 5 ¼ at 1349
  • SK down 4  ¾ at 1337 ¼
  • CH down 2 ¼ at 451 ½
  • CK down 2 ¼ at 458
  • WH down 2 at 618 ¼
  • WK down 2 ¼ at 611 ¼
  • KC WH up a ¼ at 692 ¾
  • KC WK down 1 ½ at 680 ¼
  • MWH down 1 ¼ at 682 ¾
  • MWK down 1 ¼ 658 ¼
  • SMH down 3.60 at 449.40
  • SMK down 3.20 at 433.30
  • BOH up 26 at 4050
  • BOK up 25 at 4077
  • RRH up .5 at 1580
  • RRK up .5 at 1556

 

Overnight volume

  • SH 15,389
  • SK 21,253
  • CH 13,762
  • CK 11,030
  • WH 6,129
  • WK 6,553
  • KC WH 1,218
  • KC WK 1,332
  • MWH 68
  • MWK 72
  • SMH 5,587
  • SMK 7,264
  • BOH 10,520
  • BOK 15,982
  • RRH 52
  • RRK 40

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 4-6 lower
  • Corn 2-4 lower
  • Wheat 2-4 lower
  • KC wheat mixed
  • Minneapolis wheat 1-3 lower
  • Meal 3.00-4.00 lower
  • Bean oil  20-30 higher
  • Rice steady better

 

Dollar higher. Crude, gold, silver, and stock market lower

 

Nikkei down 2.149%

Hang Seng down 1.193%

Shanghai Index down .177%

Most world stock markets lower

 

February Flash mfg PMIs

  • China HSBC flash at 48.3 (7 month lower) vs. Jan final of 49.5
  • Germany flash at 54.7 expecting 56.5 vs. Jan final of 56.5
  • Eurozone flash at 53.0 expecting 54.0 vs. Jan final of 54.0
  • France flash at 48.5 expecting 49.5 vs. Jan final of 49.3

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday

  • Crude a draw of 473,000 expecting a build of 2.0 MB
  • Gas a build of 1.4 MB expecting a draw of 500,000
  • Distillates a draw of 676,000 expecting a draw of 2.0 MB

 

Weekly US jobless claims report came out this morning at – 3K to 336K expecting 335K

 

China grain closings – beans up 18, corn up 2, meal down 9, palm oil down 58, bean oil down 38

 

Palm oil up 47

 

Surveyor SGS estimated Malaysia’s Feb 1-20th palm oil exports at 867,901 tons up 17% from a month ago

 

Surveyor Intertek estimated Malaysia’s Feb 1-20th palm oil exports at 875,091 tons up 17% from a month ago

 

Indonesia government to leave March palm oil export tax unchanged from February at 10.5%

 

Yesterday Chinese crushers were trying to resell March Brazilian cargoes or roll them to April May

 

Yesterday China bought 1 Argentina bean cargo for June shipment

 

Hearing China eyeing US beans for Oct-Nov shipment

 

Political turmoil in Ukraine may slow or halt corn exports

 

Egypt FIHC bought 25,000 bean oil for March – April shipment

 

Egypt FIHC seeks 20K sunflower oil for April shipment

 

Analysts expect Egypt Meditrade to tender for bean and sunflower oil soon.

 

Tunisia seeks 67,000 milling wheat and 59,000 durum wheat optional origin for March-April shipment

 

Algeria seeks 50K optional origin barley for March/April shipment

 

Jordan retenders for 100,000 feed barley optional origin for March – April shipment

 

Japan customs data showed Japan imported 2.24 MMT of grain in January up 4.2% from a year ago including 1.093 MMT from the US up 24.1% from a year ago

 

Japan customs data showed Japan imported 277,520 tons of beans in January up 7.6% from a year ago including 203,881 tons from the US up 4% from a year ago

 

Analysts said India’s poultry feed demand expected to increase 9% in 2014 . Poultry federation of India said monthly corn feed demand estimated at 750-800K and meal demand estimated at 200-250K tons

 

Strike in Sao Francisco do Sul Brazil

 

21 wheat receipts were canceled yesterday afternoon out of the Andersons Maumee Ohio

 

Dry Argentina today and tomorrow

 

Rains in Brazil today and tomorrow

 

6-10 forecast rains in Brazil and drier weather in Argentina

 

11-16 day forecast normal rains and temps in Argentina and Northern Brazil and above normal rains in southern Brazil

 

Too dry in parts of Malaysia and Indonesia

 

Moving averages

  • KC WH 100 day 689 ¼
  • Minn WH 100 day at 684 ½
  • BOH 100 day at 4008
  • CK 100 day at 445
  • BOK 100 day 4043

 

Upcoming reports and events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST expecting down 251 BCF
  • Weekly DOE #s come out today at 10 am CST. Expecting
    • Crude a build of 1.8 MB
    • Gas a draw of 500,000
    • Distillates a draw of 1.9 MB
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Tomorrow  the USDA will put out the balance sheet from the Outlook Conference.
  • March options expire tomorrow
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST
  • Position day for March futures is Thursday Feb 27th
  • First Notice Day for March futures is Friday Feb 28th