News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

All I can do is be me, whoever that is.

Bob Dylan

 

May is top step (spot month) today for beans, corn, wheat, KC and Minneapolis wheat, meal, bean oil , and rice

 

No USDA announcements this morning.

 

Overnight closes

  • SH down a ½ at 1360 ½
  • SK down 1 at 1346 ¾
  • CH up a ¼ at 449 ¾
  • CK up a ¼ at 455 ¾
  • WH up 1 ¾ at 613 ¾
  • WK up a ½ at 608
  • KC WH up 3 at 688 ¾
  • KC WK up 2 ¾ at 678 ¾
  • MWH up 4 ¼ at 683 ½
  • MWK up 3 at 658 ¾
  • SMH up .70 at 457.60
  • SMK up .40 at 438.50
  • BOH down 19 at 4017
  • BOK down 20 at 4046
  • RRH down 3.5 at 1582
  • RRK down 3 at 1558.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SH 6,750
  • SK 10,304
  • CH 10,544
  • CK 10,432
  • WH 6,501
  • WK 6,750
  • KC WH 871
  • KC WK 930
  • MWH 96
  • MWK 302
  • SMH 2,510
  • SMK 3,311
  • BOH 12,119
  • BOK 12,530
  • RRH 71
  • RRK 57

 

Opening calls

  • Beans steady lower
  • Corn steady better
  • Wheat 1-2 higher
  • KC wheat 2-4 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 3-5 higher
  • Meal .50-1.00 higher
  • Bean oil  15-25 lower
  • Rice  2-4 lower

 

Crude and dollar higher. Gold, silver, and stock market lower

 

Nikkei down .517%

Hang Seng up .340%

Shanghai Index up 1.113%

 

Civil unrest in Ukraine

 

China grain closings – beans down 25, corn down 2, meal up 16, bean and palm oil up 84.

 

Malaysian palm oil down 2

 

Hearing China was seeking new crop US beans yesterday

 

Hearing China was seeking and or buying South American beans for April – July shipment

 

Lack of confirmations of China canceling US beans

 

TALK China is trying to roll South American beans from March shipment to April – June shipment

 

TALK China is trying to cancel South American bean cargoes

 

TALK Argentine farmers sold up to 300,000- 700,000 tons of new crop beans between Friday – Tuesday

 

Abiove estimated Brazil’s ‘13/14 bean crop at 88.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 87.6 MMT

 

Oil World  estimated Brazil’s ‘13/14 bean crop at 85.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 89.5 MMT

 

Market expecting Egypt GASC wheat tender this week

 

Japan bought 42,908 tons of Canadian wheat for July shipment

 

Japan received no bids for SBS tender for 120K feed wheat and 200K feed barley for May shipment

 

Japan issued new SBS tender for 120K feed wheat and 200K feed barley for May shipment

 

Texas weekly winter wheat crop conditions – 17% good to excellent down 1% from a week ago , 44% poor to very poor up 3% from a week ago

 

Brazil port logistics better than a year ago

 

Ag Canada – ‘14/15 Canadian crop estimates

  • Wheat planting area at 24.7 MA down 6% from a year ago
  • Wheat crop at 29.3 MMT down 22% from a year ago
  • Canola planting area at 21.6 MA up 8% from a year ago
  • Canola crop at 16.0 MMT down 11% from a year ago
  • 2014 wheat ending stocks at 11.8 MMT up 200% from 2013
  • 2014 canola ending stocks at 3.3 MMT up 500% from 2013

 

Good demand from US bean crushers

 

Thai government sold 600,000 tons of rice from reserves

 

March meal made a new contract high overnight of 458.70

 

Some rains in forecast for Brazil

 

Dry and warmer weather in forecast for Argentina by the end of week

 

Well below normal temperatures in forecast next week for Midwest

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,385,438 open, up 4,931
  • Total beans 691,037 open, up 5,467
  • Total meal 313,248 open up 5,731
  • Total bean oil 346,412 open, down 3,173
  • Total wheat 423,198 open, down 8,645
  • Total KC wheat 145,220 open, down 1,414

 

Upcoming reports and events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • Tomorrow flash mfg PMI will come out for France, Eurozone , and Germany
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s Feb 1-20th palm oil exports tomorrow. Analysts expecting an 8-17% increase from Jan 1-20th
  • USDA Annual Outlook Meeting is tomorrow and Friday
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Weekly DOE #s come out tomorrow at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 10 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out Friday at 730 am CST
  • On Friday the USDA will put out the balance sheet from the Outlook Conference.
  • March options expire on Friday
  • Position day for March futures is Thursday Feb 27th
  • First Notice Day for March futures is Friday Feb 28th