News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

Imagine all the people living life in peace. You may say I’m a dreamer, but I’m not the only one. I hope someday you’ll join us, and the world will be as one.

John Lennon

 

No USDA announcements this morning

 

NOPA January crush report comes out today at 11 am CST . Expecting

  • Crush – average estimate 162.4 MB, range of estimates are 159-164 MB. In December the crush was 165.384 MB and in Jan 2013 the crush was 158.195 MB
  • Bean oil stocks – average estimate 1.841 billion lbs. , range of estimates 1.725-1.932 B . Dec bean oil stocks were 1.681 B and Jan 2013 bean oil stocks were 2.823 B
  • Meal exports – no estimate is given for meal exports. In December meal exports were 1.0 MMT and in Jan 2013 meal exports were 1.12 MMT

 

Overnight closes

  • SH up 15 ¼ at 1352 ¾
  • CH up 1 ½ at 446 ¾
  • WH up 2 ½ at 603
  • KC WH up 2 ½ at 677
  • MWH up 4 ½ at 671
  • SMH up 5.30 at 455.30
  • BOH up 65 at 3980
  • RRH down .50 at 1558

 

Overnight volume

  • SH 14,475
  • CH 13,745
  • WH 5,295
  • KC WH 473
  • MWH 95
  • SMH 4,549
  • BOH 14,752
  • RRH 20

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 14-16 higher
  • Corn 1-3 higher
  • Wheat 2-4 higher
  • KC wheat 2-4 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 3-5 higher
  • Meal 5.00-6.00 higher
  • Bean oil  60-70 higher
  • Rice steady lower

 

Crude, gold, and silver higher. Dollar and stock market lower.

 

Nikkei up 3.127%

Hang Seng up .230%

Shanghai Index down .766%

 

Yesterday China markets – beans down 6, corn down 2, meal down 7, palm oil down 6, bean oil down 28

 

Today China markets – beans down 14, corn up 2, meal down 14, palm oil up 52, bean oil up 30

 

Yesterday palm oil was up 19

 

Today palm oil up 32 (1 ½ year highs)

 

Hearing on Friday China bought 1 Brazilian bean cargo for July shipment

 

TALK China bought 8 new crop US bean crop cargoes last week

 

Japan and Mexico are seeking and or buying US corn for April-July shipment

 

Egypt FIHC seeks 20,000 sunflower oil

 

Kazakhstan Stats Agency said Kazakhstan will sell 509,000 tons of grain in domestic market from Feb-Aug

Kazakhstan Stats Agency said Kazakhstan 2013 grain crop is 18.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 19.0 MMT

 

Kazakhstan Ag Min said Kazakhstan will export 9.0 MMT of grain in ‘13/14 vs. 7.1 MMT a year ago

 

On Friday AgroConsult estimated Brazil’s ‘13/14 bean crop at 90.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 91.6 MMT

 

On Friday Argentina Ag Min said Argentina’s sunseed harvest is 23% complete vs. 36% a year ago

 

On Friday Argentina Ag Min said Argentina’s bean planting is 100% complete vs. 99% a year ago

 

On Friday Argentina Ag Min said Argentina’s corn planting is 99% complete vs. 97% complete a year ago

 

On Friday FranceAgriMer said 75% of France’s soft wheat is in good condition vs. 66% a year ago

 

On Friday March meal made a new contract high of 458.10

 

Rains in Brazil over the weekend were disappointing.

 

Dry weather in Brazil to start the week. Rains in forecast by the end of week

 

Rains in Central Argentina over the weekend.

 

Rains are in forecast for Argentina for the beginning of the week. Dry weather in forecast for the end of week

 

Chinese industry analysts – Weekly Chinese crush breakdown

  • For the week Feb 8 -14th total crush volume at 1,185,200 tons up from 228,900 tons a week ago
  • For the week Feb 8-14th total crush capacity utilization at 41.74% up 33.68% from a week ago
  • Total ‘13/14 crush volume ( Oct 1, 2013 – Feb 14, 2014) at 25,821,538 tons up 18.14% from a year ago
  • Total 2014 crush volume (Jan 1st – Feb 14th , 2014) at 7,464,020 tons up 10.35% from a year ago
  • As of Feb 14th total imported bean stocks at 5.4632 MMT up 201,800 tons from a week ago and up 4.04% from a year ago
  • Estimated Feb bean imports at 4.6372 MMT vs. previous estimate of 4.6 MMT
  • Estimated March bean imports at 5.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 4.8 MMT
  • Estimated April bean imports at 5.6 MMT unchanged from  previous estimate
  • Estimated May bean imports at 6.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.8 MMT
  • Said 3 bean cargoes unloaded at Guangdong is being detained for GM inspecting

 

Safras e Mercado weekly Brazilian crop progress

  • Brazil bean harvest 21% complete vs. 13% a week ago vs. 15% a year ago and vs. 12% average
  • Mato Grosso bean harvest 28% complete vs. 13% a week ago and vs. 6% a year ago
  • Parana bean harvest 25% complete vs. 15% a week ago and vs. 25% a year ago

 

Weekly COT supplemental report from Friday. Large spec positions as of 2/11/14 futures and options combined

  • Wheat short 82,547
  • KC wheat short 6,244
  • Corn short 36,672
  • Beans long 154,692
  • Meal long 36,339
  • Bean oil short 60,8418

 

Moving averages

  • BOH 100 day 4012

 

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • CH 333,139 open, down 21,416
  • CK 408,263 open, up 21,665
  • Total corn 1,381,583 open, up 10,641
  • SH 156,812 open, down 20,833
  • SK 247,404 open , up 14,102
  • Total beans 686,105 open, down 2,855
  • SMH 79,399 open, down 8,225
  • SMK 125,340 open, up 7,452
  • Total meal 307,813 open, up 1,019
  • BOH 94,982 open, down 11,888
  • BOK 136,396 open, up 3,457
  • Total bean oil 349,636 open, down 7,229
  • WH 117,109 open, down 9,824
  • WK 162,383 open, up 5,407
  • Total wheat 432,250 open, down 3,523
  • KC WH 38,928 open, down 3,911
  • KC WK 54,883 open, up 2,590
  • Total KC wheat 146,752 open, down 876

 

Upcoming reports and events

  • Weekly US export inspections report will come out on today at 10 am CST
  • January NOPA crush report will come out today at 11 am CST
  • May beans, corn, wheat, KC wheat, meal, oil, and rice will go top step tomorrow CME started new roll date procedures CME will roll months on the 12thbusiness day of the month
  • China to auction 600,000 tons of wheat from reserves on Wednesday
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • On Thursday flash mfg PMI will come out for France, Eurozone , and Germany
  • USDA Annual Outlook Meeting is Feb 20th and 21st
  • March options expire on Friday
  • Position day for March futures is Thursday Feb 27th
  • First Notice Day for March futures is Friday Feb 28th