News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

If you have only one smile in you give it to the people you love.

Maya Angelou

 

US markets will be closed on Monday for President’s day holiday.

 

No USDA announcements this morning

 

Overnight closes

  • SH up 6 ½ at 1350 ¾
  • CH up 1 ¾ at 442 ¼
  • WH up 5 ½ at 601
  • KC WH up 3 ½ at 676 ¼
  • MWH up 3 ¾ at 666
  • SMH up 3.90 at 456.70
  • BOH down 19 at 3935
  • RRH up 4.50 at 1575.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SH 17,738
  • CH 15,223
  • WH 10,489
  • KC WH 849
  • MWH 76
  • SMH 3,204
  • BOH 9,245
  • RRH 33

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 5-7 higher
  • Corn 1-3 higher
  • Wheat 4-6 higher
  • KC wheat 3-5 higher
  • Meal 3-5 higher
  • Bean oil 15-25 lower
  • Rice 3-5 higher

 

Gold, silver, and stock market higher. Dollar and crude oil lower.

 

Nikkei down 1.525%

Hang Seng up .599%

Shanghai Index up .840%

 

China’s Jan CPI came out last night at +2.5% (expecting +2.3%)

 

China’s Jan PPI came out last night at – 1.6% (expecting -1.7%)

 

Eurozone 4th quarter GDP came out at +.3% vs. +.1% in the 3rd quarter and expecting +.2%

 

Germany’s 4th quarter GDP came out at +.4% vs. +.3% in the 3rd quarter

 

France 4th quarter GDP came out at +.3%

 

Palm oil up 11 (9 week high)

 

China grain closings – beans up 12, corn unchanged, meal up 29, palm oil and bean oil up 58

 

CNGOIC estimated China’s ‘13/14 bean crop at 12.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 12.2 MMT and down 8% from a year ago

 

Hearing China bought 1 US new crop bean cargo yesterday

 

Hearing China bought 3-5 Brazilian bean cargoes yesterday for March –May shipment

 

South Korea KOCOPIA bought 60K US corn for May shipment

 

This week Vietnam Malaysia and Jakarta was buying India corn

 

Indonesia bought 120,000 tons of India corn for Feb-March shipment

 

Japan bought 286,091 tons of wheat for March- July shipment . Breakdown

  • 25,620 tons of US western white wheat
  • 31,100 tons of US HRW wheat
  • 129,343 tons of US dark northern spring wheat
  • 32,890 tons of Australian white wheat
  • 67,138 tons of Canadian wheat

 

Japan seeks 42,908 tons of Canadian wheat for July shipment

 

Iraq seeks 50,000 optional origin wheat

 

Oil World estimated Argentina ‘s 2014 sunseed crop at 2.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 2.4 MMT and vs. 2.98 MMT in 2013

 

Oil World estimated Argentina’s 2014 crush at 2.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 2.4 MMT and vs. 2.6 MMT a year ago

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange (BAGE) estimated Argentina’s ‘13/14 corn crop at 23.5 MMT vs. ‘12/13 crop of 27.0 MMT and vs. USDA estimate of 24.0 MMT

 

BAGE estimated ‘13/14 Argentine corn planting area at 3.57 MH vs. previous estimate of 3.3 MH

 

BAGE estimated ‘13/14 Argentine bean crop at 53.0 MMT

 

Solvent Extractors Association of India Jan import estimates

  • Palm oil imports at 555,446 tons (4 month low) down 35.7% from a month ago
  • Bean oil imports at 174,236 tons 3 times the amount from December

 

India’s government ‘13/14 crop estimates

  • Wheat crop at 95.60 MMT vs. 93.51 MMT a year ago
  • Rice at 106.19 MMT vs. 105.24 MMT a year ago
  • Corn crop at 23.29 MMT vs. 21.06 MMT a year ago
  • Ban crop at 12.45 MMT vs. 14.66 MMT a year ago
  • Rapeseed crop at 8.25 MMT vs. 8.03 MMT a year ago
  • Total oilseed crops at 32.98 MMT vs. 30.94 MMT a year ago

 

Ukraine State Stats Service said Feb 1st grain stocks were 19.9 MMT up 28% from a year ago

 

Russia to stop state grain purchases starting Feb 19th

 

Rains and cooler temps in Brazil through the weekend. Hot and dry weather returns next week

 

CME lowered margins yesterday in beans, meal, and bean oil

 

Yesterday was the last day of the Goldman Sachs roll

 

March meal made new contract highs last night of 458.10

 

Moving averages

  • CH 100 day 437 ½
  • WH 50 day 595 ½
  • BOH 100 day 4015

 

Estimated fund activity from yesterday

  • Wheat bought 3,000
  • Corn bought 2,000
  • Beans bought 9,000
  • Meal bought 4,000
  • Bean oil bought 2,500

 

Option players from yesterday

 

Corn:

ABN sold 700 J 430 puts/450 call strangles

New Edge bot 500 Z 380 puts

 

Beans:

FI bot 3000 H 1380 calls

FI bot 1000 K 1400 calls/sold 250 SK

FI bot 800 J 1370 calls

FI bot 1000 J 1280-1240 put spreads/bot 150 SK

FI bot 500 K 1400 calls

Newedge bot 2500 H 1300-1280 put spreads

Rand bot 1000 K 1300 straddles/sold 260 SK

Rand bought 1000 J 1350 calls

Tenco bot 1000 J 1350 calls

ICAP sold 750 N 1220 puts/sold 165 SN

ADM bot 500 H 1300 puts

ADM bot 400 K 1320 calls

ADM sold 400 K 1360 calls

Macquarie sold 500 K 1160 puts

Rand bot 400 J 1350 calls

 

Wheat:

MLP bot 500 K 590 straddles

Rosenthal sold 500 H 600 puts and sold 500 WH 592

 

Oil:

JPM bot 1000 K 41 calls

JPM bot 1000 N 39 calls

Mizuho sold 600 H 38 calls

Rand bot 500 J 41 calls

Tenco bot 1200 J 41 calls/sold 400 K 40 calls

 

Meal:

FCS bot 300 H 445 puts/sold 300 H’15 310 puts

Tenco bot 2000 N 450 calls and sold 560 H 418.50

 

Crush information from yesterday

 

Open                     Close

March   80-81.5                 87.75-89

May       57.5-58.5              59.5-60.5

Jly           52.5-53.5              53-54

Aug        60-63                     60-62

Sep        87.25-90               90-94

Oct         83-84.5                 83.75-84.75

Dec        77.25-77.75         77.5-78.25

Jan         70.5-71.5              70-71.5

 

Players

RJO        sold 60 Mch 87

ABN       sold 40 Mch 86.5

Tenco    sold 50 May 59.5

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CH 354,590 open, down 16,398
  • CK 386,851 open, up 19,637
  • Total corn 1,371,156 open, up 7,008
  • SH 177,644 open, down 9,584
  • SK 233,174 open, up 14,449
  • Total beans 688,806 open, up 12,973
  • SMH 87,657 open, down 6,577
  • SMK 117,918 open, up 8,503
  • Total meal 306,848 open, up  6,242
  • BOH 106,849 open, down 12,220
  • BOK 132,913 open, up 13,740
  • Total bean oil 356,873 open, up 4,975
  • WH 126,888 open, down 5,364
  • WK 156,986 open, up 4,009
  • Total wheat 435,657 open, up 426
  • KCWH 42,863 open, down 3,872
  • KC WK 52,327 open, up 2,848
  • Total KC wheat 147,687 open, down 481

 

Upcoming reports and events

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST
  • Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s Feb 1-15th palm oil exports on Saturday
  • SGS will estimate Malaysia’s Feb 1-15th palm oil exports on Monday
  • On Monday Malaysia government will set their March palm oil export tax
  • Monday Feb 17th is a US holiday . Markets will be closed
  • Weekly US export inspections report will come out on Tuesday at 10 am CST
  • Tuesday Feb 18th January NOPA crush report will come out at 11 am CST
  • May beans, corn, wheat, KC wheat, meal, oil, and rice will go top step on Feb 19th. CME started new roll date procedures CME will roll months on the 12th business day of the month
  • USDA Annual Outlook Meeting is Feb 20th and 21st
  • March options expire on 2/21/14