News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

For it was not into my ear you whispered, but into my heart. It was not my lips you kissed, but my soul.

Judy Garland

 

No USDA announcements this morning .

 

Overnight closes

  • SH up 5 at 1328
  • CH up ¾ at 440 ¾
  • WH up 3 ¾ at 590 ¾
  • KC WH up 1 at 664
  • MWH up a ¼ at 655
  • SMH up 1.10 at 444.60
  • BOH up 25 at 3924
  • RRH up 1.50 at 1564

 

Overnight volume

  • SH 16,642
  • CH 10,007
  • WH 8,273
  • KC WH 985
  • MWH 51
  • SMH 5,534
  • BOH 10,393
  • RRH 19

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 4-6 higher
  • Corn steady 1 higher
  • Wheat 3-5 higher
  • KC wheat steady 1 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat steady better
  • Meal .50-1.50 higher
  • Bean oil  20-30 higher
  • Rice 1-3 higher

 

Crude, gold, silver, dollar, and stock market lower.

 

Nikkei down 1.793%

Hang Seng down .540%

Shanghai Index down .545%

Most world stock markets lower

 

Weekly US jobless  claims report came out this morning at +8K ton 339K expecting 330K

 

China grain closings – beans down 6, corn up 4, meal down 11, palm oil up 66, bean oil up 44

 

Malaysian palm oil up 20

 

Hearing China bought 2-4 Braizilian bean cargoes this week

 

Hearing China bought 7-12 US new crop bean cargoes this week

 

China is testing imported US bean cargoes for unapproved GMO MIR162 . Earlier China rejected corn cargoes from the US for containing MIR162

 

Philippines bought 42,000 US meal yesterday for March shipment

 

Egypt Meditrade bought 29,000 sunflower oil for March-April shipment

 

South Korea Kocopia seeks 55K optional origin corn for May shipment

 

Thai government tenders to sell 500K tons of rice from reserves next week

 

Based on a Bloomberg survey India’s Jan veg oil imports estimated at 960,000 tons down 17%, palm oil imports estimated at 650,000 tons down 26%, bean oil imports at 160,000 tons up 55% , and sunflower oil imports at 130,000 tons unchanged

 

Strategie Grains EU estimates

  • ‘13/14 EU corn imports estimated at 12.4 MMT vs. previous estimate of 10.8 MMT vs. ‘12/13 of 11.4 MMT
  • Said corn use in animal feed is up 1.3 M from previous estimate and up 3.4 M from ‘12/13
  • Estimated ‘13/14 corn stocks at 5.9 M up 400,000 from previous estimate
  • ‘14/15 EU28 soft wheat exports estimated at 21.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 20.5 MMT
  • ‘14/15 soft wheat crop at 137.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of  137.7 MMT
  • ‘14/15 EU28 corn crop estimated at 65.1 MMT vs. previous estimate 64.8 MMT
  • ‘14/15 EU28 barley crop estimated at 55.0 MMT vs. previous estimate 54.8 MMT
  • ‘13/14 EU soft wheat exports estimated at 21.7 MMT vs. previous estimate of 20.5 MMT and vs. ‘12/13 exports of 24.3 MMT

 

USDA to release 10 year baseline projections today at 10 am CST

 

Today is the last day of the Goldman Sachs roll

 

Rains and cooler temps in Brazil’s forecast

 

Dry weather in Argentina’s forecast

 

Yesterday March meal made a new contract high of 452.90

 

Weekly US export sales report

  • Wheat – ‘13/14 597,000 ‘14/15 29,600 (expecting 450-750K)
  • Corn – ‘13/14 1.27 M ‘14/15 71,100 (expecting 800K – 1.2 M)
  • Beans – “13/14 173,600 ‘14/15122,600 (expecting 600-950K)
  • Meal – “13/14 18,700 ‘14/15 214,000 (expecting 150-300K)
  • Bean oil – ‘13/14 53,300 (expecting 10-50K)

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 597,000 MT for delivery during the 2013/2014 marketing year were down 7 percent from the previous week, but up 12 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Japan (194,500 MT), Nigeria (120,700 MT), Indonesia (60,000 MT), Colombia (52,500 MT), and Yemen (45,000 MT). Decreases were reported for Guatemala (15,200 MT), Venezuela (14,700 MT), South Korea (10,700 MT), and the French West Indies (6,800 MT). Net sales of 29,600 MT for 2014/2015 were reported for Brazil (25,000 MT) and Italy (4,600 MT). Exports of 403,700 MT were up 10 percent from the previous week, but down 8 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (75,700 MT), Japan (45,200 MT), Venezuela (37,300 MT), Taiwan (34,900 MT), and Guatemala (31,900 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 1,269,800 MT for 2013/2014 were down 25 percent from the previous week, but up 1 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for unknown destinations (421,900 MT), Colombia (233,800 MT, including 65,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 4,400 MT), South Korea (233,500 MT), Mexico (144,200 MT), and Japan (109,700 MT, including 42,500 MT switched from unknown destinations). Decreases were reported for China (228,000 MT) and the United Kingdom (1,600 MT). Net sales of 71,100 MT for 2014/2015 were reported for unknown destinations (50,800 MT) and Japan (20,300 MT). Exports of 952,500 MT were up 28 percent from the previous week and 18 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (221,000 MT), Japan (209,100 MT), South Korea (178,300 MT), Colombia (115,700 MT), and Saudi Arabia (69,800 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 173,600 MT for 2013/2014 resulted as increases for China (320,700 MT, including 301,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 116,900 MT), Mexico (64,700 MT), South Korea (49,500 MT, including 55,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 5,500 MT), Indonesia (14,900 MT), and Colombia (13,200 MT), were partially offset by decreases for unknown destinations (326,900 MT). Net sales of 122,600 MT for 2014/2015 were reported for China (115,000 MT) and Japan (7,600 MT). Exports of 1,494,000 MT were down 1 percent from the previous week and 9 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (1,076,600 MT), Mexico (125,600 MT), Russia (60,700 MT), Bangladesh (51,900 MT), and South Korea (51,300 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 18,700 MT for 2013/2014–a marketing-year low–were down 93 percent from the previous week and 91 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Russia (46,200 MT, including 52,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 5,800 MT), Cuba (22,000 MT, switched from unknown destinations), Guatemala (13,200 MT), Honduras (10,200 MT, including 6,500 MT switched from unknown destinations), the Dominican Republic (9,500 MT), and Mexico (8,700 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (104,700 MT) and Ireland (34,000 MT). Net sales of 214,000 MT for 2014/2015 were reported for unknown destinations (176,200 MT), Ireland (36,000 MT), and Ecuador (1,800 MT). Exports of 290,100 MT were up 10 percent from the previous week, but down 3 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Thailand (48,300 MT), Russia (46,200 MT), the Philippines (44,300 MT), Venezuela (38,000 MT), Cuba (22,000 MT), and Morocco (19,800 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 53,300 MT for 2013/2014 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for China (35,000 MT, switched from unknown destinations), the Dominican Republic (8,100 MT), unknown destinations (5,000 MT), and Mexico (3,800 MT). Decreases were reported for Canada (600 MT) and Egypt (100 MT). Exports of 24,500 MT were up noticeably from the previous week, but down 1 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Egypt (19,900 MT), Mexico (3,500 MT), Canada (800 MT), and Trinidad (100 MT).

 

Moving averages

  • CH 100 day 438
  • WH 50 day 596 ¾
  • BOH 50 day 3881
  • BOH 100 day 4018

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CH 371,426 open, down 31,638
  • CK 367,278 open, up 35,671
  • Total corn 1,364,596 open, up 17,636
  • SH 187,820 open, down 18.962
  • SK 218,855 open, up 8,029
  • Total beans 676,023 open, down 7,186
  • SMH 94,287 open, down 8,472
  • SMK 109,458 open, up 6,882
  • Total meal 300,703 open, up 1,061
  • BOH 119,056 open, down 3,697
  • BOK 119,195 open, up 6,882
  • Total bean oil 351,935 open, up  4,629
  • WH 132,296 open, down 19,043
  • WK 153,056 open, up 15,176
  • Total wheat 435,560 open, down 2,124
  • KC WH 46,760 open, down 5,336
  • KC WK 49,575 open, up 5,848
  • Total KC wheat 148,317 , up 1,408

 

Upcoming reports and events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST expecting – 233 BCF
  • China’s PPI and CPI comes out on tonight/ tomorrow morning
  • German and Eurozone flash GDP comes out tomorrow
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST
  • Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s Feb 1-15th palm oil exports on Saturday
  • SGS will estimate Malaysia’s Feb 1-15th palm oil exports on Monday
  • Monday Feb 17th is a US holiday . Markets will be closed
  • Tuesday Feb 18th January NOPA crush report will come out at 11 am CST
  • May beans, corn, wheat, KC wheat, meal, oil, and rice will go top step on Feb 19th. CME started new roll date procedures CME will roll months on the 12th business day of the month
  • USDA Annual Outlook Meeting is Feb 20th and 21st
  • March options expire on 2/21/14