News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

A friend is someone who gives you total freedom to be yourself.

Jim Morrison

 

USDA announced 116,000 tons of US beans sold to China for ‘14/15 shipment

 

Overnight closes

  • SH down 10 at 1315 ½
  • CH down 1 ¼ at 441 ¾
  • WH up 1 at 585 ¾
  • KC WH up 1 ¾ at 664 ½
  • MWH up 3 ¼ at 654 ¾
  • SMH down 4.30 at 439.70
  • BOH down 19 at 3854
  • RRH down 2 at 1552.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SH 13,844
  • CH 12,064
  • WH 5,538
  • KC WH 861
  • MWH 116
  • SMH 5,449
  • BOH 7,713
  • RRH 47

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 9-11 lower
  • Corn 1-3 lower
  • Wheat steady – 2 higher
  • KC wheat 1-3 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 2-4 higher
  • Meal 4 – 5 lower
  • Bean oil 15-25 lower
  • Rice 1-3 lower

 

Gold, crude oil, and stock market higher.  Dollar and silver lower .

 

Nikkei up 1.8%

Hang Seng up 1.8%

Shanghai Index up .8%

 

Palm oil down 5.

 

China grain closings – beans up 3, corn down 4, meal down 21, palm down 10, bean oil down 28

 

Egypt FIHC bought 42,000 sunflower oil for March shipment

 

Reuters poll of 28 analysts estimated 2014 average palm oil price at 2,700 Ringgits vs. 2013 average price of 2,371

 

Public Investment Bank estimated Indonesia’s 2014 palm oil output at 27.5 MMT down 1.9% from 2013

 

TALK from yesterday China trying to wash out 7-8 US bean cargoes – NOT confirmed

 

Japan still seeking / buying US corn for March-June shipment

 

Egypt and Mexico seeking US corn for April – June shipment

 

Celeres said Brazil has harvested 11.6% of their bean crop vs. 5 year average of 11%

 

Celeres said as of Feb 7th Brazil sold 48% of their bean crop vs. 59% a year ago. On Jan 31st Brazil had sold 41.7% of their bean crop.

 

Ukraine Ag Min estimated Feb grain exports at 2.4 MMT vs. 2.79 MMT in January.

 

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine has exported 1.06 MMT of grain so far this month

 

UkrAgroConsult said 93% of Ukraine’s winter grain crops are in good to fair condition

 

Russia bought 2,430 tons of intervention grains making the total bought since 10/15/13 at 599,940 tons

 

Texas weekly winter wheat progress report. Good to excellent 18% down 1% from a week ago and poor to very poor 41% unchanged from a week ago

 

Rains in the forecast for Brazil.

 

Today is the third day of the Goldman Sachs roll. Goldman roll ends Thursday.

 

CONAB came out this morning with their Brazilian crop estimates

  • ‘13/14 bean crop estimated at 90.01 MMT (record) previous estimate was 90.33 MMT
  • ‘13/14 corn crop estimated at 75.47 MMT previous estimate was 78.97 MMT
  • ‘13/14 wheat crop estimated at 5.5 MMT previous estimate was 5.47 MMT
  • CONAB’s president said hot and dry weather could have impact on the next government official estimate

 

ABARES came out late yesterday afternoon with their Australian crop estimates

  • ‘13/14 wheat crop estimated at 27.013 MMT vs. previous estimate of 26.213 MMT
  • ‘13/14 canola crop estimated at 3.548 MMT vs. previous estimate of 3.41 MMT
  • ‘13/14 cotton crop estimated at 940,000 tons vs. previous estimate of 975,000 tons

 

Chinese industry analysts – Chinese crush breakdown (China was on holiday Jan 30 – Feb 5)

  • Between Jan 25th – Feb 7th total crush volume at 775,700 tons
  • Between Jan 25th – Feb 7th total crush capacity utilization was 8.06% down 11.19% from the week before
  • Total crush volume between Oct 1, 2013 – Feb 7, 2014 at 24,636,338 tons up 13.7% from a year ago
  • Total crush volume between Jan 1, 2014 – Feb 7,2014 at 6,278,820 tons down 4.50% from a year ago
  • As of Feb 7th total imported bean stocks at 5.2605 up 450,400 tons from Jan 24th and up 2.14% from a year ago
  • Estimated Jan bean imports at 5.39 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated Feb bean imports at 4.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 4.5 MMT
  • Estimated March bean imports at 4.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 4.9 MMT
  • Estimated April bean imports at 5.6 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated May bean imports at 5.8 MMT , first estimate made

 

Moving averages

  • CH 100 day 438 ½
  • WH 50 day 599 ¾
  • BOH 50 day 3888

 

Open interest as of yesterday close

  • CH 437,977 open, down 24,841.
  • Total corn 1,344,822 open, up 17,286
  • SH 220,836 open, down 10,975
  • Total beans 675,898 open, up 7,999
  • SMH 111,730 open, down 13,231
  • Total meal 298,290 open, down 800
  • BOH 136,098 open, down 15,523
  • Total bean oil 350,879 open, down 2,681
  • WH 175,225 open, down 10,929
  • Total wheat 438,212 open, up 5,891
  • KCWH 57,551 open, down 6,984
  • Total KC wheat 148,002 open, down 3,478

 

Upcoming reports and events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • China trade data comes out tonight/ tomorrow morning.
  • Weekly DOE #s come out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • China’s PPI and CPI comes out on Thursday night/ Friday morning
  • German and Eurozone flash GDP comes out on Friday
  • Intertek will estimate Malaysia’s Feb 1-15th palm oil exports on Saturday
  • SGS will estimate Malaysia’s Feb 1-15th palm oil exports on Monday
  • Monday Feb 17th is a US holiday . Markets will be closed
  • Tuesday Feb 18th January NOPA crush report will come out at 11 am CST
  • May beans, corn, wheat, KC wheat, meal, oil, and rice will go top step on Feb 19th. CME started new roll date procedures CME will roll months on the 12th business day of the month
  • USDA Annual Outlook Meeting is Feb 20th and 21st
  • March options expire on 2/21/14