News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

I didn’t leave the Democratic Party.  The party left me!

Ronald Reagan

 

USDA Supply and Demand and World Production report comes out today at 11 am CST (see below for estimates)

 

Overnight closes

  • SH up 2 ¼ at 1333 ¾
  • CH down 1 ¾ at 442 ½
  • WH down 4 at 573 ½
  • KC WH down 3 ¾ at 645 ½
  • MWH down 1 at 638 ¼
  • SMH up .10 at 446.50
  • BOH up 42 at 3898
  • RRH up 4 at 1538

 

Overnight volume

  • SH 11,052
  • CH 19,104
  • WH 8,763
  • KC WH 368
  • MWH 86
  • SMH 2,765
  • BOH 11,850
  • RRH 4

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 2-4 higher
  • Corn 1-3 lower
  • Wheat 3-5 lower
  • KC wheat 3-5 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat steady to 1 lower
  • Meal steady mixed
  • Bean oil 40-50 higher
  • Rice 3-5 higher

 

Crude, stock market, and dollar lower. Gold and silver higher

 

Nikkei up 1.77%

Hang Seng down .3%

Shanghai Index up 2% (6 week high)

 

China grain closings – beans down 5, corn down 17, meal up 17, bean oil up 72, palm oil up 48

 

Malaysian palm oil up 38

 

Malaysian Palm Oil Board January data report came out this morning

  • Palm oil stocks at 1.93 MMT expecting 1.98 MMT and vs. Dec stocks of 1.99 MMT
  • Palm oil output at 1.51 MMT expecting 1.52 MMT and vs. 1.67 MMT in December
  • Palm oil exports at 1.37 MMT expecting 1.35 MMT and vs. 1.51 MMT in December

 

Surveyor SGS estimated Feb 1-10th Malaysian palm oil exports at 308,485 tons up 8.4% from a month ago

 

Surveyor Intertek estimated Feb 1-10th Malaysian palm oil exports at 309,455 tons up 4.1% from a month ago

 

This will be China’s first full week after the Lunar New Year holiday. Some analysts expecting to see US bean cancelations this week.

 

Hearing China bought some Brazilian bean cargoes on Friday for May-July

 

Argentina farmers sold new crop soybean late last week.

 

CNGOIC estimated China’s Jan bean imports at 5.4 MMT vs. Dec imports of 7.4 MMT and up 11% from Jan 2013.

 

CNGOIC expects China’s Feb bean imports to be 55% higher than a year ago

 

CNGOIC said China’s imported bean stocks at ports is 6.0 + MMT

 

CNGOIC said bird flu outbreak is slowing meal demand in China

 

Xinhua news reported that the Chinese Ag Minister said China is likely to have good summer crop due to favorable weather conditions . In 2013 China grain crop was at 601.94 MMT up 2.1% from 2012.

 

Analysts expecting Mato Grosso Brazil bean crop to hit record high of 26.0 MMT vs. 24.0 MMT a year ago

 

Greek importers bought 6,000 tons of corn from Russia for March shipment

 

Rains in Argentina continue. Flooding is being reported in some areas. Dry weather in forecast by the end of week.

 

Hot and dry forecast for Brazil for the next 2-4 days. Cooler temps and rain is in forecast this week but may not be enough .

 

Bitter cold in US Midwest next 1-3 days. Warmer temps in forecast by the end of week

 

Today is the second day of the Goldman Sachs roll. The roll ends on Thursday. They are rolling their long March positions into May. Friday trade information. March May volume traded on the close

  • Corn – 14,000 contracts traded electronically at 5 ½ – 5 ¾ , 300 contracts traded in the pit at 5 ½ – 5 ¾
  • Beans – 7,000 traded on the screen at 13 ¾ -14 and 100 traded in the pit at 13 ¾
  • Wheat – 8,300 traded on the screen at 1 ¾ and 100 traded in the pit at 1 ¾
  • Meal – 4,500 traded on the screen at 16.50
  • Bean oil – 5,000 traded on the screen at 32 and 800 traded in the pit at 32

 

Weekly COT supplemental report from Friday. Large spec positions as of Feb 4th futures and options combined

  • Wheat short 90,006
  • KC wheat short 9,581
  • Corn short 72,584
  • Beans long 122,602
  • Meal long 34,329
  • Bean oil short 73,470

 

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • Total corn 1,327,388 open, up 8,075
  • Total beans 667,722 open, up 12,788
  • Total meal 299,126 open, down 466
  • Total bean oil 353,300 open, down 8,182
  • Total wheat 432,477 open, down 1,724
  • Total KC wheat 151,495 open, down 868

 

Estimates for today’s USDA Report

 

Estimates for ‘13/14 US grain ending stocks

  • Wheat (21 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .603 BB , range of estimates are .574 – .653 BB. January USDA estimate was .608 MB
  • Corn (23 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 1.619 BB, range of estimates are 1.574-1.748 BB. January USDA estimate was 1.631 BB
  • Beans (23 analysts surveyed) – average estimate .143 BB, range of estimates are .125 – .164 BB. January USDA estimate was .150 BB

 

Estimates for ‘13/14 global ending stocks

  • Wheat (15 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 184.97 MMT , range of estimates are 182.80-187.00 MMT. January USDA estimate was 185.40 MMT
  • Corn (15 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 159.60 MMT, range of estimates are 156.27-163.20 MMT. January USDA estimate was 160.23 MMT
  • Beans (16 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 72.67 MMT, range of estimates are 71.00-75.35 MMT. January USDA estimate was 72.33 MMT

 

Estimates for ‘13/14 Brazilian and Argentine crops

  • Argentina corn crop (22 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 23.82 MMT, range of estimates are 19.8 – 25.0 MMT. January USDA estimate was 25.0 MMT
  • Argentina bean crop (22 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 54.13 MMT, range of estimates are 52.7-57.0 MMT. January USDA estimate was 54.5 MMT
  • Brazilian corn crop (22 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 69.99 MMT, range of estimates are 66.1-74.0 MMT. January USDA estimate was 70.0 MMT
  • Brazilian bean crop (22 analysts surveyed) – average estimate 89.76 MMT , range of estimates are 88.3-91.0 MMT. January UDSA estimate was 89.0 MMT

 

Upcoming reports and events

  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on today at 10 am CST
  • CONAB comes out on tomorrow with their Brazilian crop production estimates.
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • China trade data comes out Tuesday night/ Wednesday morning.
  • China’s PPI and CPI comes out on Thursday night/ Friday morning
  • German and Eurozone flash GDP comes out on Friday
  • Monday Feb 17th is a US holiday . Markets will be closed
  • Tuesday Feb 18th January NOPA crush report will come out at 11 am CST
  • May beans, corn, wheat, KC wheat, meal, oil, and rice will go top step on Feb 19th. CME started new roll date procedures CME will roll months on the 12th business day of the month
  • USDA Annual Outlook Meeting is Feb 20th and 21st
  • March options expire on 2/21/14