News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

With self-discipline most anything is possible.

– Theodore Roosevelt

 

USDA announced exporters canceled 220,000 tons of US corn sold to China for ‘13/14 shipment.

 

Overnight closes

  • SH up 11 ¾ at 1328
  • CH up 2 ¾ at 446
  • WH up 2 at 589 ½
  • KC WH up 3 ¾ at 655
  • MWH up 7 ½ at 637
  • SMH up 4.60 at 446.60
  • BOH up 43 at 3866
  • RRH up 4 at 1536

 

Overnight volume

  • SH 12,863
  • CH 19,390
  • WH 5,890
  • KC WH 781
  • MWH 671
  • SMH  5,841
  • BOH 12,104
  • RRH 21

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 9-11 higher
  • Corn 2-4 higher
  • Wheat 1-3 higher
  • KC wheat 3-5 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 6-8 higher
  • Meal 4-5 higher
  • Bean oil 40-50 higher
  • Rice 3-5 higher

 

Crude, gold, silver, dollar, and stock market higher

 

Nikkei down .178%

Hang Seng up .723%

Shanghai index closed – trading resumes tomorrow

 

Weekly US jobless claims came out this morning at – 20K to 331K expecting 335K

 

China markets closed. Trading resumes tomorrow

 

Malaysian palm oil up 22

 

Analysts saying that the bird flu outbreak in China may be worse than what is being reported

 

Egypt Meditrade seeks 30,000 sunflower oil

 

Japan bought 312,816 tons of feed wheat for March – June shipment . Breakdown

  • 20,925 tons of US western white wheat
  • 50,310 tons of US HRW wheat
  • 82,424 tons of US dark northern spring wheat
  • 128,177 tons of western red spring Canadian wheat
  • 30,950 tons of Australian white wheat

 

Oman bought 20,000 India wheat for March/April shipment

 

Record bean yields being reported in Mato Grosso and Parana Brazil

 

FAO estimated ‘13/14 global cereals crop at 2.502 billion tons up 1.7 million tons from previous estimate

 

FAO estimated 2014 global cereals ending stocks at 573 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

FC Stone estimated Brazil’s ‘13/14 corn crop at 72.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 72.4 MMT

 

FC Stone estimated Brazil’s ‘13/14 corn ending stocks at 7.08 MMT

 

FC Stone estimated Brazil’s ‘13/14 bean crop at 90.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 90.2 MMT

 

FC Stone estimated Brazil’s ‘13/14 bean ending stocks at 5.46 MMT

 

Shipping delays , logistical problems in Canada.

 

Kazakhstan Statistics Agency said Kazakhstan’s 2013 grain crop was 18.2 MMT up 42% from 2012 including 13.9 MMT of wheat also up 42% from a year ago

 

USDA attaché in Canada estimated 2014 grain crop at 52.0 MMT vs. 2013 crop of 65.8 MMT

 

USDA attaché in Mexico estimated ‘13/14 corn crop at 21.5 MMT

 

Bird Flu H5N8 being reported in 15 South Korean farms. No human cases. South Korea has killed 2.8 million birds.

 

March meal made new contract highs yesterday of 448.80

 

Argentina soymeal output has slowed due to farmers hoarding soybeans.

 

Brutal US winter has slowed US bean crushing pace

 

33 new ethanol receipts were registered yesterday afternoon

 

34 ethanol deliveries with the date at 1/29/14

 

Brazil weather forecast – hot and dry through the week, some showers in forecast next week

 

Argentina weather forecast- scattered showers with no extreme heat

 

Moving averages

  • CH 100 day at 439 ¼
  • KC WH 50 day at 653 ¾
  • BOH 50 day at 3902

 

Weekly US export sales report

  • Wheat ‘13/14 638,800 ‘14/15 94,800 (expecting 500-750K)
  • Corn ‘13/14 1.70 million (expecting 900,000 – 1.2 M)
  • Beans ‘13/14 577,000 ‘14/15 219,500 (expecting 550-850K)
  • Meal ‘13/14 283,700 ‘14/15 125,000 (expecting 100 – 200K)
  • Bean oil ‘13/14 26,000 (expecting 0-30K)

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 638,800 MT for delivery during the 2013/2014 marketing year were down 15 percent from the previous week, but up 62 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Guatemala (138,000 MT), Japan (96,700 MT, including 1,500 MT switched from unknown destinations), Brazil (82,500 MT, including 25,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), the Philippines (53,400 MT, including 51,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Mexico (51,300 MT). Decreases were reported for the Leeward Windward Islands (2,100 MT) and Barbados (1,500 MT). Net sales of 94,800 MT for 2014/2015 were reported for the Philippines (50,000 MT), unknown destinations (25,000 MT), Italy (12,800 MT), and Colombia (7,000 MT). Exports of 367,900 MT were down 2 percent from the previous week and 18 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were the Philippines (101,400 MT), Mexico (63,900 MT), South Korea (45,000 MT), Taiwan (42,100 MT), and Chile (31,100 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 1,700,100 MT for 2013/2014 were down 8 percent from the previous week, but up 94 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Japan (798,900 MT, including 117,000 MT switched from China, 83,700 MT switched from unknown destinations, and decreases of 50,000 MT), unknown destinations (311,900 MT), Spain (280,000 MT), Vietnam (78,100 MT), and Taiwan (66,500 MT, including 57,400 MT switched from China). Decreases were reported for China (72,400 MT) and Peru (1,400 MT). Exports of 747,300 MT were down 26 percent from the previous week and 3 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (255,000 MT), Taiwan (137,000 MT), Mexico (121,700 MT), Vietnam (63,100 MT), and Venezuela (32,000 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 577,000 MT for 2013/2014 were up 59 percent from the previous week and 25 percent from the prior 4-week average.Increases were reported for China (436,400 MT, including 180,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 4,900 MT),Indonesia (200,400 MT, including 25,100 MT switched from unknown destinations), the Netherlands (75,700 MT, including 70,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Japan (74,500 MT, including 47,200 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Germany (67,200 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (530,500 MT) and Canada (6,500 MT). Net sales of 219,500 MT for 2014/2015 were reported for unknown destinations (118,000 MT), China (60,000 MT), the Netherlands (38,100 MT), and Japan (3,400 MT). Exports of 1,508,100 MT were down 24 percent from the previous week and 10 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (922,300 MT), Mexico (82,900 MT), Taiwan (77,400 MT), and the Netherlands (75,700 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 283,700 MT for 2013/2014 were up noticeably from the previous week and 87 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for the Philippines (90,500 MT), Canada (54,800 MT), Italy (38,400 MT, including 40,000 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 1,600 MT), Ecuador (27,900 MT), Mexico (20,900 MT), and Ireland (16,000 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (54,900 MT). Net sales of 125,000 MT for 2014/2015 were reported for unknown destinations. Exports of 264,100 MT were down 25 percent from the previous week and 17 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Venezuela (56,000 MT), the Philippines (54,500 MT), Italy (38,400 MT), Morocco (34,300 MT), Ecuador (30,900 MT), and Mexico (12,900 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 26,000 MT for 2013/2014 were up noticeably from the previous week and 34 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Morocco (15,000 MT), Mexico (3,700 MT), Jamaica (3,500 MT), and Peru (1,900 MT). Exports of 10,300 MT were down 85 percent from the previous week and 55 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Mexico (3,700 MT), Nicaragua (2,500 MT), Panama (2,000 MT), and El Salvador (1,200 MT).

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,311,806 open, down 7,238
  • Total beans 634,888 open, up 10,400
  • Total meal 297,178 open, up 1,558
  • Total bean oil 369,298 open, down 78
  • Total wheat 432,869 open, down 5,099
  • Total KC wheat 75,729 open, 3,211

 

Upcoming reports and events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST expecting – 270 billion
  • Unemployment comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins tomorrow
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST
  • Malaysian Palm Oil Board January data report comes out Monday Feb 10th . Expecting
    • Palm oil stocks 1.98 MMT vs. Dec stocks of 1.99 MMT
    • Palm oil output 1.52 MMT vs. 1.67 MMT in December
    • Palm oil exports 1.35 MMT vs. 1.51 MMT in December
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek will estimated Malaysia’s Feb 1-10th palm oil exports on Monday
  • USDA supply and demand report and crop production report comes out Monday Feb 10th at 11 am CST . Estimates should be out this afternoon.
  • CONAB comes out on Tuesday Feb 11th with their Brazilian crop production estimates.
  • May beans, corn, wheat, KC wheat, meal, oil, and rice will go top step on Feb 19th. CME started new roll date procedures CME will roll months on the 12th business day of the month
  • USDA Annual Outlook Meeting is Feb 20th and 21st
  • March options expire on 2/21/14