News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

Whatever you are, be a good one.

– Abraham Lincoln

 

Informa comes out today at 1030 am CST with their world production estimates and US winter crop comment.

 

Overnight closes

  • SH up 10 at 1302 ¾
  • CH up 1 ¾ at 437 ½
  • WH up a ½ at 564 ½
  • KC WH up 3 at 627 ¼
  • MWH down a ¼ at 610 ½
  • SMH up 5.90 at 439.90 – March meal made new contract highs yesterday of 440.70
  • BOH down 7 at 3738
  • RRH down 1.50 at 1528.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SH 13,190.
  • CH 9,824
  • WH 5,342
  • KC WH 931
  • MWH 193
  • SMH 7,711
  • BOH 5,569
  • RRH 35

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 9-11 higher
  • Corn 1-3 higher
  • Wheat steady up 1
  • KC Wheat 2-4 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat steady mixed
  • Meal 5.50-6.50 higher
  • Bean oil 5-10 lower
  • Rice 1-3 lower

 

Crude, dollar, and stock market higher. Gold and silver lower

 

Nikkei down 4.18%

Hang Seng down 2.9%

Shanghai index closed

 

China markets still closed .

 

Malaysia palm oil markets down 31

 

Stats Canada came out this morning at 730 am with their Dec 31st stocks estimates.

  • All wheat stocks estimated at 28.38 MMT expecting 28.9 MMT and vs. 20.61 MMT a year ago
  • Durum wheat stocks at 5.34 MMT expecting 5.5 MMT and vs. 3.93 MMT a year ago
  • Canola stocks at 12.6 MMT (record) expecting 12.3 MMT and vs. 8.11 MMT a year ago
  • Oat stocks at 2.87 MMT expecting 3.0 MMT and vs. 2.06 MMT a year ago
  • Barley stocks at 6.70 expecting 7.1 MMT and vs. 5.27 MMT a year ago

 

Brazilian Trade Ministry – January exports

  • Beans 30,600 tons vs. 41,400 tons in December and vs. 300 tons in Jan 2013
  • Meal 901,700 tons vs. 912,000 tons in December and vs. 616,500 tons in Jan 2013
  • Bean oil 65,800 tons vs. 83,6010 tons in December and vs. 23,100 tons in Jan 2013
  • Corn 2.93 MMT vs. 3.08 MMT in December and vs. 3.37 MMT in Jan 2013

 

Still no official confirmation on China canceling or switching US beans

 

South Korea NOFI bought 65,000 optional origin feed wheat for June shipment

 

South Korea NOFI bought 65,000 US corn for June shipment

 

Japan seeks 312,816 tons of feed wheat for March – June shipment . Breakdown

  • 20,925 tons of US western white wheat
  • 50,310 tons of US HRW wheat
  • 82,424 tons of US dark northern spring wheat
  • 128,177 tons of western red spring Canadian wheat
  • 30,950 tons of Australian white wheat

 

India STC tenders to sell 200,000 tons of wheat for March shipment

 

Philippines to retender tonight for 42,000 tons of US meal for March shipment .

 

Ecuador and Morocco bought US meal late last week .

 

US farmers selling yesterday. – Winter storms and bitter cold may slow deliveries in US Midwest

 

Argentina farmers still holding on to their beans – Argentine government trying to get farmers to sell about 8 MMT of old crop beans

 

Weekly Texas winter wheat crop ratings came out yesterday at 19% good to excellent down 4% from a week ago and 41% poor to very poor up 4% from a week ago

 

Monthly Kansas winter wheat crop ratings came out yesterday afternoon at 35% good to excellent down 23% from a month ago and 20% poor to very poor up 14% from a month ago

 

Monthly Oklahoma winter wheat crop ratings came out yesterday afternoon at 36% good to excellent down 27% from a month ago and 24% poor to very poor up 16% from a month ago

 

AgRural said yesterday they may cut their Brazil bean estimate in February if heat wave and irregular rains continue

 

Analysts expecting USDA to raise US corn exports estimate by about 50 million bushels and to raise US bean exports estimate by about 20 MB on Monday

 

Thai commerce minister said China canceled government to government deal to buy 1.2 MMT of Thai rice due to Thai corruption investigation. – Reuters

 

Yesterday was the last day of the Rogers roll. Goldman Sachs roll starts Friday. Rolling long March positions into May.

 

Brazil hot and dry next 7 days

 

Argentina scattered rains and thunderstorms with no extreme heat in forecast next 7 days

 

Moving averages

  • SH 50 day 1300 ¾
  • SH 100 day 1290
  • SH 200 day 1278 ¼
  • CH 50 day 429
  • CH 100 day 440

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,313,288 open, up 8,388
  • Total beans 615,223 open, up 3,144
  • Total meal 296,463 open, up 7,082
  • Total bean oil 373,851 open, down 1,731
  • Total wheat 438,792 open, down 4,203
  • Total KC wheat 160,390 open, down 1,739

 

Upcoming reports and events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • Weekly DOE #s come out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Unemployment comes out Friday Feb 7th at 730 am CST
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins Feb 7th
  • USDA supply and demand report and crop production report comes out Monday Feb 10th at 11 am CST
  • CONAB comes out on Tuesday Feb 11th with their Brazilian crop production estimates.
  • May beans, corn, wheat, KC wheat, meal, oil, and rice will go top step on Feb 19th. CME started new roll date procedures CME will roll months on the 12th business day of the month
  • USDA Annual Outlook Meeting is Feb 20th and 21st
  • March options expire on 2/21/14