News From The Grain Floor

Good morning .

 

Football is like life – it requires perseverance, self-denial, hard work, sacrifice, dedication and respect for authority.
Vince Lombardi

 

USDA announced 113,780 tons of US corn sold to unknown for ‘13/14 shipment

 

USDA announced 40,000 tons of US bean oil sold to unknown for ‘13/14 shipment 

Overnight closes

  • SH up a ¼ at 1283
  • CH up 2 ¼ at 436 ¼
  • WH up a ½ 556 ¼
  • KC WH down 1 at 614 ½
  • MWH down 1 at 603
  • SMH up .10 at 426.20
  • BOH down 12 at 3752
  • RRH up .50 at 1540.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SH 5,472
  • CH 13,233
  • WH 4,836
  • KC WH 889
  • MWH 185
  • SMH 2,331
  • BOH 6,935
  • RRH 30

 

Opening calls

  • Beans steady mixed
  • Corn 1-3 higher
  • Wheat steady better
  • KC wheat steady easier
  • Minneapolis wheat steady easier
  • Meal steady better
  • Bean oil 10-15 lower
  • Rice steady better

 

Dollar lower. Crude, gold, silver, and stock market higher

 

Nikkei down 1.2%

Hang Seng and Shanghai index closed

 

January official mfg PMIs

  • China’s at 53.4 vs. Dec of 54.6 and vs. HSBC final of 49.5
  • Germany at 56.5 expecting 56.3 and vs. Dec of 54.3
  • Euro Zone at 54.0 expecting 53.9 and vs. Dec of 52.7
  • UK at 56.7 expecting 57.2 and vs. Dec of 57.2
  • France at 49.3 expecting 48.8 and vs. Dec of 47.0

 

China markets closed through Feb 6th

 

Malaysian palm oil markets are closed. Trading resumes tomorrow .

 

7 new bird flu cases were reported in China with one human death.

 

Market still expecting to see US bean cancelations from China , but has not been confirmed yet.

 

Surveyor SGS estimated Malaysia’s January palm oil exports at 1,269,266 tons down 10.8% from a month ago

 

Surveyor Intertek estimated Malaysia’s January palm oil exports at 1.28 MMT down 11% from a month ago

 

Egypt FIHC seeks 40K sunflower oil for March shipment

 

Bangladesh will soon tender for 100,000 tons of optional origin wheat

 

IMEA said on Friday that 10.6% of the Mato Grosso bean harvest is complete vs. 5.8% a week ago and vs. 11.4% a year ago

 

Mato Grosso is reporting better than expected soybean yields

 

Dereal estimated Parana, Brazil’s bean crop at a record 16.48 MMT

 

AgRural said as of Friday Brazil has harvested 6% of their bean crop

 

USDA attaché in South Korea estimated ‘13/14 wheat consumption at 4.3 MMT vs. previous estimate of 4.7 MMT

 

USDA attaché in South Korea estimated ‘13/14 corn consumption at 9.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 9.1 MMT

 

USDA attaché in South Korea estimated ‘13/14 corn imports at 9.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 9.0 MMT with 3.0 MMT coming from the US vs. previous estimate of 2.0 MMT

 

Strategie Grains estimated 2014 EU 28 rapeseed crop at 21.4 MMT vs. previous estimate of 21.3 MMT and vs. 2013 crop of 20.9 MMT

 

Strategie Grains estimated France 2014 rapeseed crop at 5.25 MMT vs. 4.35 MMT a year ago

 

Strategie Grains estimated 2014 EU 28 sunseed crop at 8.1 MMT vs. previous estimate of 8.2 MMT and vs. 2013 crop of 8.7 MMT

 

Strategie Grains estimated ‘14/15 global rapeseed crop at 67.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 68.0 MMT

 

Strategie Grains estimated ‘14/15 global soybean crop at 298 MMT vs. 287 MMT a year ago

 

Moving averages

  • SH 200 day 1278
  • CH 50 day 428 ½
  • CH 100 day 440 ¼

 

COT supplemental report from Friday. Large spec positions as of Jan 28th futures and options combined

  • Wheat short 96,005
  • KC wheat short 11,038
  • Corn short 133,067
  • Beans long 101,105
  • Meal long 26,531
  • Bean oil short 79,019

 

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • Total corn 1,305,295 open, down 5,287
  • Total beans 612,314 open, up 3,100
  • Total meal 289,480 open, up 1,041
  • Total bean oil 375,590 open, down 527
  • Total wheat 442,444 open, down 2,138
  • Total KC wheat 162,156 open, down 758

 

Upcoming reports and events

  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out today at 10 am CST
  • Stats Canada comes out tomorrow at 730 am with their Dec 31st stocks estimates. Based on a Reuters survey of 8 analysts estimates for the report are
    • All wheat stocks estimated at 28.9 MMT (22 year high) up 40% from a year ago
    • Durum wheat stocks estimated at 5.5 MMT up 40% from a year ago
    • Canola stocks estimated at 12.3 MMT (record) up 50% from a year ago and vs. previous record in 2009 of 10.1 MMT
    • Oat stocks estimated at 3.0 MMT up 46% from a year ago
    • Barley stocks estimated at 7.1 MMT up 35% from a year ago
  • Brazil’s National Port Federation meets tomorrow
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • Unemployment comes out Friday Feb 7th at 730 am CST
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins Feb 7th
  • USDA supply and demand report and crop production report comes out Monday Feb 10th at 11 am CST
  • CONAB comes out on Tuesday Feb 11th with their Brazilian crop production estimates.
  • USDA Annual Outlook Meeting is Feb 20th and 21st