News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

“People say nothing is impossible, but I do nothing every day.”

Winnie-the-Pooh

 

USDA announced 110,000 US corn sold to Spain for ‘13/14 shipment .

 

Still no USDA announcements on bean cancelations from China. Market has been expecting to see China bean cancelations or switches to South American beans for the past week or so.

 

Today is month end.

 

Overnight closes

  • SH unchanged at 1275
  • CH down 1 ½ at 432
  • WH up ¾ at 554 ¼
  • KC WH up 2 ¼ at 613
  • MWH unchanged at 597 ¼
  • SMH up .80 at 426.00
  • BOH down 7 at 3700
  • RRH down .50 at 1542

 

Overnight volume

  • SH 6,146
  • CH 12,194
  • WH 4,983
  • KC WH 306
  • MWH 101
  • SMH 2,308
  • BOH 4,766
  • RRH 34

 

Opening calls

  • Beans steady mixed
  • Corn 1-2 lower
  • Wheat steady better
  • KC wheat 1-3 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat steady better
  • Meal .50-1.00 higher
  • Bean oil 5-10 lower
  • Rice steady

 

Dollar, gold, and silver higher. Crude and stock market lower

 

Nikkei down .62%

Hang Seng and Shanghai Index closed

 

China and Malaysian markets closed for Lunar New Year holiday. Markets resume on February 4th.

 

India MMTC seeks 23,000 palm oil from Indonesia or Malaysia for Feb shipment

 

Lebanon seeks 25,000 optional origin milling wheat for March shipment

 

Allendale estimated 2014 US soybean area at 81.6 MA vs. 2013 area of 76.5 MA

 

Allendale said July beans will not top $13 and may fall to $11.10

 

Allendale said Nov beans may fall to $9.20 by October , but due to possible Brazilian port congestion Nov bean prices may go up to $12

 

Beneficial crop weather in South America continues.

 

Effective at the close of business today – CME to lower wheat initial margins for specs by 15.2%

 

Effective at the close of business today – CME to raise Nat Gas initial margins for specs by 26.4%

 

Reuters poll of 13 analysts . 2014 ending price forecasts

  • Bean average price forecast $10.76, range of estimates were $9.25 – $13.75
  • Corn average price forecast $4.37 , range of estimates were $3.45 – $6.25
  • Wheat average price forecast $5.73, range of estimates were $4.75 – $8.50

 

Buenos Aires Grains Exchange weekly Argentine grain progress report

  • ‘13/14 bean crop estimated at 53.0 MMT unchanged from previous estimate and vs. ‘12/13 crop of 48.5 MMT
  • Argentine bean planting is 99.3% complete vs. 98.4% a week ago and vs. 99.4% a year ago
  • ‘13/14 bean area estimated at 20.35 MH unchanged from previous estimate
  • Argentine corn planting is 95.8% complete vs. 90% a week ago and vs. 98.7% a year ago
  • Estimated ‘13/14 corn area at 3.3 MH unchanged from previous estimate
  • Sunflower harvest 22.1% complete vs. 18.5% a week ago and vs. 30.1% a year ago
  • ‘13/14 sunflower crop estimated at 2.3 MMT unchanged from previous estimate

 

USDA attaché in Brazil , corn estimates

  • ‘14/15 corn crop estimated at 70.0 MMT vs. 81.0 MMT a year ago
  • ‘14/15 corn area estimated at 14.7 MH vs. 15.8 MH a year ago
  • ‘14/15 corn exports estimated at 21.0 MMT vs. 26.0 MMT a year ago
  • ‘14/15 corn domestic use estimated at 55.0 MMT vs. 52.0 MMT a year ago
  • ‘14/15 corn ending stocks estimated at 7.9 MMT vs. 13.1 MMT a year ago

 

From Brazilian contact about port labors strike –

Affecting just a few ports limited to conventional berths where such labors required.

All grain berths operating normally without interruptions

 

Moving averages

  • SH 200 day 1277 ½
  • CH 50 day 428 ½

 

Today is the second day of the Roger’s roll. Roll ends on Monday. Rogers is rolling long March positions into May.

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CH 563,836 open, down 7,586
  • Total corn 1,310,630 open, down 659
  • SH 246,559 open, down 738
  • Total beans 609,354 open, up 3,655
  • SMH 140,384 open, up 423
  • Total meal 288,490 open, up 3,723
  • BOH 195,985 open, down 2,525
  • Total bean oil 376,198 open, up 287
  • WH 244,759 open, down 7,640
  • Total wheat 444,855 open, down 1,957
  • KC WH 84,423 open, down 978
  • Total KC wheat 162,985 open, up 3

 

Upcoming reports and events

  • Weekly COT report comes out today at 230 pm CST
  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out on Monday at 10 am CST
  • Intertek will estimated Malaysia’s January palm oil exports on Feb 3rd.
  • Stats Canada comes out on Tuesday Feb 4th with their Dec 31st stocks estimates. Based on a Reuters survey of 8 analysts estimates for the report are
    • All wheat stocks estimated at 28.9 MMT (22 year high) up 40% from a year ago
    • Durum wheat stocks estimated at 5.5 MMT up 40% from a year ago
    • Canola stocks estimated at 12.3 MMT (record) up 50% from a year ago and vs. previous record in 2009 of 10.1 MMT
    • Oat stocks estimated at 3.0 MMT up 46% from a year ago
    • Barley stocks estimated at 7.1 MMT up 35% from a year ago
  • Brazil’s National Port Federation meets on Feb 4th
  • Unemployment comes out Friday Feb 7th at 730 am CST
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins Feb 7th
  • USDA supply and demand report and crop production report comes out Monday Feb 10th at 11 am CST
  • CONAB comes out on Tuesday Feb 11th with their Brazilian crop production estimates.