News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

The problem with bubbles is that they force one to decide whether to look like an idiot before the peak, or an idiot after the peak. There’s no calling the top

 

John P. Hussman

 

USDA announced 127,000 US corn sold to unknown for ‘13/14 delivery

 

Rogers roll begins today and runs for 3 days. They will be rolling long March positions into May in beans, meal, bean oil, corn, and wheat

 

Overnight closes

  • SH unchanged at 1269 ¼
  • CH up 3 at 430 ½
  • WH up 4 ½ at 556
  • KC WH up 4 ½ at 613 ¼
  • MWH up 2 at 600
  • SMH down 1.50 at 421.80
  • BOH up 9 at 3719
  • RRH up .50 at 1545.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SH 16,168
  • CH 19,084
  • WH 11,483
  • KC WH 601
  • MWH 400
  • SMH 6,350
  • BOH 6,963
  • RRH 23

 

Opening calls

  • Beans lower
  • Corn 2-4 higher
  • Wheat 3-5 higher
  • KC wheat 3-5 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 1-3 higher
  • Meal 1-2 lower
  • Bean oil 5-10 higher
  • Rice steady better

 

Crude, dollar, and stock market higher. Gold and silver lower.

 

Nikkei down 3.3%

Hang Seng down 1.5%

Shanghai Index down .7%

 

Weekly US jobless claims report came out this morning at +19K to 348K expecting 330K

 

China’s final HSBC mfg PMI came out last night at 49.5 vs. flash of 49.6 and vs. Dec final of 50.5

 

China grain closings – beans down 12, corn down 3, meal down 11, palm oil down 40, bean oil down 70.

 

Palm oil up 19

 

Talk from yesterday – China canceled 300,000 – 400,000 tons of US beans. Some analysts are saying as many as 900,000 tons of US beans were canceled.
TALK China bought Argentine beans yesterday

 

Japan bought 179,343 tons of wheat for March shipment. Breakdown

  • 34,150 tons US western white wheat
  • 24,580 tons of US HRW wheat
  • 32,517 tons of US dark northern spring wheat
  • 88,096 tons of Australian white wheat

 

Jordan seeks 100,000 tons of milling wheat and 100,000 tons of feed barley optional origin for May-June shipment

 

Agroconsult said Brazil’s ‘13/14 bean crop could easily top 90 MMT (record).

 

Good soybean yields being reported in Mato Grosso Brazil

 

Brazil loaded 1st bean cargo

 

Analysts said Argentina farmers to start selling beans before harvest begins in March . Reports said Argentina farmers need to sell 20% of their 2014 bean crop to pay for production costs.

 

Bird flu in China and South Korea

 

China poultry industry has lost 20 B Yuan due to recent H7N9 bird flu cases. Analysts said this may curb China’s soybean demand

 

Mostly favorable weather in South America continues

 

132 wheat receipts were canceled yesterday out of the Andersons Maumee OH

 

The recent low on Jan 2nd in March beans was 1262 ½ . 1262 ½ was the low overnight

 

March bean 200 day moving average is 1277 ½

 

March corn 50 day moving average is 428 ¼

 

March meal 50 day moving average is 421.00

 

March Minneapolis wheat made new contract lows yesterday of 596 ¾

 

March Chicago wheat made new contract lows yesterday of 550 ½

 

March KC wheat made new contract lows yesterday of 607 ¾

 

European milling wheat futures at a 4 ½ month low.

 

Weekly US export sales report

  • Wheat ‘13/14 794,900 ‘14/15 2,000 (expecting 300-500,000)
  • Corn ‘13/14 1.84 M ‘14/15 105,700 (expecting 550-750,000)
  • Beans ‘13/14 494,800 ‘14/15 371,000 (expecting 750,000 – 1.05 M)
  • Meal  ‘13/14 68,300 ‘14/15 120,000 (expecting 100,000-200,000)
  • Bean oil ‘13/14 6,700 (expecting 0 – 30,000)

 

Export highlights

  • Wheat – Net sales of 794,900 MT for delivery during the 2013/2014 marketing year were up 89 percent from the previous week and up noticeably from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Japan (174,800 MT), South Korea (162,400 MT), Nigeria (125,700 MT), the Philippines (98,000 MT, including 23,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Taiwan (74,000 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (18,400 MT), Indonesia (12,600 MT), and Guatemala (9,800 MT). Net sales of 2,000 MT for 2014/2015 were reported for South Korea. Exports of 422,000 MT were unchanged from the previous week, but down 1 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Nigeria (80,500 MT), Sri Lanka (60,500 MT), Mexico (57,300 MT), Japan (48,800 MT), and Guatemala (36,200 MT).
  • Corn – Net sales of 1,837,900 MT for 2013/2014 were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for Japan (797,800 MT, including 48,500 MT switched from unknown destinations), unknown destinations (305,900 MT), Spain (270,000 MT), Egypt (120,000 MT), and South Korea (120,000 MT). Decreases were reported for the French West Indies (5,600 MT). Net sales of 105,700 MT for 2014/2015 were reported for Japan. Exports of 1,004,100 MT were up 26 percent from the previous week and 38 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were Japan (381,700 MT), Mexico (230,300 MT), Colombia (94,400 MT), Peru (92,200 MT), and South Korea (60,600 MT).
  • Beans – Net sales of 494,800 MT for 2013/2014 were down 22 percent from the previous week and 18 percent from the prior 4-week average.Increases were reported for China (251,300 MT, including 233,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), the Netherlands (209,200 MT, including 200,000 MT switched from unknown destinations), Mexico (165,100 MT), Japan (76,800 MT, including 61,300 MT switched from unknown destinations), and Spain (67,100 MT, including 60,000 MT switched from unknown destinations). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (610,300 MT) and Cuba (5,000 MT). Net sales of 371,000 MT for 2014/2015 were reported for unknown destinations (243,000 MT), China (126,000 MT), and Japan (2,000 MT). Exports of 2,114,600 MT were up 39 percent from the previous week and 36 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (1,312,600 MT), the Netherlands (209,200 MT), Japan (128,800 MT), Spain (67,100 MT), and Germany (66,000 MT).
  • Meal – Net sales of 68,300 MT for 2013/2014 were down 72 percent from the previous week and 59 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for the Philippines (59,900 MT, including 43,300 MT switched from unknown destinations), Thailand (45,000 MT, switched from unknown destinations), Turkey (40,200 MT, including 40,500 MT switched from unknown destinations and decreases of 4,500 MT), South Korea (25,000 MT, switched from unknown destinations), and Panama (25,000 MT). Decreases were reported for unknown destinations (275,100 MT) and Japan (6,900 MT). Net sales of 120,000 MT for 2014/2015 were reported for unknown destinations. Exports of 352,700 MT were down 12 percent from the previous week, but up 22 percent from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were the Philippines (97,900 MT), Turkey (54,200 MT), Mexico (38,500 MT), Egypt (25,800 MT), and South Korea (25,100 MT).
  • Bean oil – Net sales of 6,700 MT for 2013/2014 were down 67 percent from the previous week and 48 percent from the prior 4-week average. Increases were reported for the Dominican Republic (5,000 MT), Peru (3,800 MT), Mexico (1,800 MT), and Trinidad (800 MT). Decreases were reported for Mozambique (3,300 MT) and unknown destinations (2,100 MT). Exports of 67,600 MT–a marketing-year high–were up noticeably from the previous week and from the prior 4-week average. The primary destinations were China (35,000 MT), Peru (19,200 MT), Malaysia (5,000 MT), and Jamaica (3,500 MT).

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,311,118 open, down 4,735
  • Total beans 605,980 open, up 14,345
  • Total meal 284,903 open, up 1,762
  • Total bean oil 375,844 open, down 92
  • Total wheat 446,343 open, up 1,516
  • Total KC wheat 163,001 open, up 2,691

 

Upcoming reports and events

  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out today at 930 am CST expecting – 236 B
  • China markets will be closed tomorrow  – Feb 3rd for Lunar New Year holiday . Markets resume Feb 4th
  • Malaysian markets will be closed tomorrow  – Feb 3rd for Lunar New Year holiday.. Markets resume Feb 4th
  • Weekly COT report comes out tomorrow at 230 pm CST
  • Intertek will estimated Malaysia’s January palm oil exports on Feb 3rd.
  • Brazil’s National Port Federation meets on Feb 4th
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins Feb 7th