News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

“Time heals what reason cannot”

– Seneca

 

Egypt GASC is in for wheat for March shipment.

 

USDA announced 110K US corn sold to Spain for ‘13/14 shipment

 

Overnight closes

  • SH down 2 at 1285 ¾
  • CH down ¾ at 431
  • WH up 4 ¼ at 567 ¾
  • KC WH up 2 ¼ at 624 ¾
  • MWH up ¾ at 607 ¼
  • SMH down .50 at 430.40
  • BOH up 8 at 3714
  • RRH up 10 at 1558

 

Overnight volume

  • SH 6,593
  • CH 24,836
  • WH 9,246
  • KC WH 619
  • MWH 137
  • SMH 3,532
  • BOH 9,438
  • RRH 95

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 1-3 lower
  • Corn steady lower
  • Wheat 3-5 higher
  • KC wheat 1-3 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat steady better
  • Meal steady to 1 lower
  • Bean oil steady -10 higher
  • Rice 9-11 higher

 

Gold and silver lower. Crude, dollar, and stock market higher.

 

FOMC two day policy meeting begins today.

 

President Obama State of the Union Address tonight at 8 pm CST

 

China grain closings – beans down 15, corn up 1, meal down 4, palm oil down 80, and bean oil down 82

 

Palm oil down 27

 

Hearing China was seeking Brazilian beans for Feb March shipment yesterday

 

Hearing China was seeking US new crop soybeans yesterday

 

3 new cases of H7N9 bird flu was reported in east China’s Zhejiang province on Saturday making the total human cases at 47.

 

Argentine farmers still not selling beans . Some analysts said Argentine farmers are holding on to 5-10 MMT of beans

 

Japan seeks 179,343 tons of wheat for March shipment. Breakdown

  • 34,150 tons US western white wheat
  • 24,580 tons of US HRW wheat
  • 32,517 tons of US dark northern spring wheat
  • 88,096 tons of Australian white wheat

 

Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine exported 20.893 MMT of grain between July 1st – Jan 27th up 34% from a year ago

 

Russia bought 18,900 tons of intervention grain. Making the total since Oct 15th at 576,315 tons

 

Bitter cold in US Midwest

 

South American weather is good.

 

Cold weather in the Ukraine is disrupting corn shipments

 

Minneapolis wheat contract low 606.

 

March bean oil made a new contract low overnight of 3691.

 

352 wheat receipts canceled yesterday afternoon out of Andersons Maumee OH

 

FI sold 7,800 SH 1280 puts at 16-18 ¾ yesterday . Open interest shows that 10,000 traded. 20,045 contracts are opened up 566 contracts.

 

Chinese industry analysts – weekly Chinese crush breakdown

  • For the week Jan 18-24 total crush volume at 1,589,000 tons down 6.97% from a week ago
  • For the week Jan 18-24 total crush capacity utilization at 55.96% down 4.2% from a week ago
  • Oct 1 , 2013 – Jan 24, 2014 total crush volume at 23,860,638 tons up 21.53% from a year ago
  • Jan 1, 2014 – Jan 24, 2014 total crush volume at 5,503,120 tons up 21.19% from a year ago
  • As of Jan 24th total imported bean stocks at 4.8101 MMT down 130,000 tons from a week ago and down 3.67% from a year ago
  • Estimated Jan bean imports at 5.39 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated Feb bean imports at 4.75 MMT vs. previous estimate of 4.5 MMT
  • Estimated March bean imports at 4.9 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated April bean imports at 5.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.6 MMT

 

Moving averages

  • SH 100 day 1292 ¾
  • SH 200 day 1277
  • CH 50 day 428 ½

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CH 586,755 open, down 6,067
  • Total corn 1,315,677 open, down 2,320
  • SH 246,007 open, down 2,205
  • Total beans 587,415 open, down 393
  • SMH 144,502 open, up 1,012
  • Total meal 283,800 open, up 2,695
  • BOH 199,044 open, down 476
  • Total bean oil 378,174 open, up 357
  • WH 257,823 open, down 257
  • Total wheat 443,685 open, down 100
  • KC WH 86,473 open, down 296
  • Total KC wheat 159,806 open, down 680

 

Upcoming reports and events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • Weekly DOE #s come out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Brazil port workers may strike on Thursday
  • Rogers roll begins on Thursday Jan 30th and end Monday Feb 3rd
  • China markets will be closed Jan 31st – Feb 3rd for Lunar New Year holiday . Markets resume Feb 4th
  • Malaysian markets will be closed Jan 31st – Feb 3rd for Lunar New Year holiday. On Thursday Jan 30th markets will only be open for a half a day. Markets resume Feb 4th
  • Brazil’s National Port Federation meets on Feb 4th
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins Feb 7th