News From The Grain Floor

Good morning.

 

We are all inventors, each sailing out on a voyage of discovery, guided each by a private chart, of which there is no duplicate. The world is all gates, all opportunities.

– Ralph Waldo Emerson

 

USDA announced 183,000 tons of US beans sold to unknown for ‘14/15 shipment

 

USDA announced 119,888 tons of US corn sold to unknown for ‘13/14 shipment

 

Overnight closes

  • SH up 2 ¼ at 1287
  • CH down a ½ at 429
  • WH up 3 at 568 ¼
  • KC WH up 3 ¾ at 631
  • MWH up 1 at 614
  • SMH up 1.60 at 427.30
  • BOH down 13 at 3741
  • RRH down 1.50 at 1541

 

Overnight volume

  • SH 9,180
  • CH 7,929
  • WH 4,056
  • KC WH 591
  • MWH 376
  • SMH  2,808
  • BOH 7,608
  • RRH 15

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 1-3 higher
  • Corn steady mixed
  • Wheat 2-4 higher
  • KC wheat 2-4 higher
  • Minneapolis wheat 1-3 higher
  • Meal 1 – 2 higher
  • Bean oil  10-20 lower
  • Rice 1-2 lower

 

Gold lower. Silver, crude oil, stock market, and dollar higher.

 

Concerns about tighter credit controls in China

 

Nikkei down 2.51%

Hang Seng down 2.1%

Shanghai Index down 1%

 

China grain closings beans up 17, corn up 5, meal up 22, palm oil down 70, bean oil down 80

 

Palm oil down 35

 

Surveyor SGS estimated Malaysia’s Jan 1-25th palm oil exports at 1.018 MMT down 10.5% from a month ago

 

Surveyor Intertek Agri Services estimated Malaysia’s Jan 1-25th palm oil exports at 1.032 MMT down 9.4% from a month ago

 

Saudi Arabia bought 715,000 tons of optional origin wheat for April – June shipment . 595,000 hard wheat and 120,000 soft wheat

 

UN bought 19,000 tons of Ukrainian wheat for Djibouti for Feb shipment

 

TALK/RUMORS continue of China canceling US beans or switching US beans to Brazilian.

 

Hearing Japan was seeking US corn on Friday

 

Hearing China bought 10-15 US new crop soybean cargoes last week

 

Hearing China was seeking US beans off the Gulf for Feb-March shipment on Friday

 

Maldives seeks 9,000 rice for Feb shipment

 

US exporters shipped a record amount of US meal last week. They shipped 398,591 tons of meal mostly to Asian countries .

 

Analysts said Argentine farmers are holding 8.4 MMT of soybeans 5 times the amount from a year ago

 

SA Commodities said Brazil Feb bean exports could hit a record high for the month of February .

 

SA Commodities said Brazil has 650,000 tons of beans scheduled for late Jan shipment . In Jan 2013 Brazil shipped only 280 tons of beans

 

SA Commodities said Brazil has 2.5 MMT of beans scheduled for Feb shipment . in Feb 2013 Brazil shipped 959,000 tons of beans

 

SA Commodities estimated Brazil’s Jan meal exports at 137,000 tons

 

SA Commodities estimated Brazil’s Feb meal exports at 840,000 tons in Feb 2013 Brazil exported 670K meal .

 

Hearing Mato Grosso Brazil bean harvest is 5.8% complete

 

Hearing Mato Grosso Brazil Safrinha corn planting is 3.8% complete vs. 2.8% a year ago

 

Bunge in Fairmont IL has been approved for soybean regularity. They could issue up to 440 soybean receipts. Their daily loading rate is 110,000 bushels per day

 

Safras e Mercado estimated Brazil’s ‘13/14 bean crop at 91.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 90.9 MMT

 

UCAP said Philippines exported 82,734 tons of coconut oil down 18.3% from a year ago due to typhoon.

 

UCAP said Philippines exported 1.126 MMT of coconut oil in 2013 up 32.5% from a year ago and vs. their estimate of 1.1 MMT

 

66 wheat receipts canceled Friday afternoon out of Andersons Maumee OH

 

Light showers in Argentina over the weekend . 6-10 day weather forecast wetter

 

Rains in Brazil over weekend, up to 3 inches with 65-75% coverage. Scattered light showers in the forecast for this week , but mostly dry the next 10 days

 

Concerns about US wheat crop damage due to bitter cold temps in the US

 

Moving averages

  • SH 100 day 1293 ¼
  • SH 200 day 1276 ¾
  • CH 50 day 428 ½

 

Weekly COT supplemental report from Friday. Large spec positions as of Jan 21st futures and options combined

  • Wheat short 89,729
  • KC wheat short 9,772
  • Corn short 146,309
  • Beans long 107,253
  • Meal long 26,315
  • Bean oil short 80,562

 

Open interest as of Friday’s close

  • Total corn 1,318,030 open, down 8,038
  • Total beans 589,926 open, down 957
  • Total meal 281,223 open, up 3,991
  • Total bean oil 378,114 open, down 676
  • Total wheat 445,124 open, up 4,742
  • Total KC wheat 160,601 open, up 68

 

Upcoming reports and events

  • Weekly US export inspections report comes out today at 10 am CST
  • FOMC two day policy meeting begins tomorrow .
  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST
  • Brazil port workers may strike on Thursday
  • Rogers roll begins on Thursday Jan 30th and end Monday Feb 3rd
  • China markets will be closed Jan 31st – Feb 3rd for Lunar New Year holiday . Markets resume Feb 4th
  • Brazil’s National Port Federation meets on Feb 4th
  • Goldman Sachs roll begins Feb 7th