News From The Grain Floor

News

 

TALK China canceled or switched 3-5 cargoes of US beans to South American beans.

 

TALK continues Brazil buying/seeking HRW wheat.

 

Weekly US export inspections report

  • Wheat 15.557 MB expecting 17-22MB
  • Corn 29.811 MB expecting 20-25 MB
  • Beans 56.591 MB expecting 45-55 MB

 

AgRural estimated ‘13/14 Brazilian bean crop at 88.8 MMT vs. previous estimate of 89.4 MMT

 

AgRural said Mato Grosso bean harvest is 4% complete vs. 3% a year ago

 

AgRural said Brazil’s bean harvest is 1% complete

 

Somar said Mato Grosso Brazil harvest is 2% complete vs. five year average of 1%

 

Celeres said as of Jan 10th Brazil sold 41.7% of their ‘13/14 bean crop vs. 55.9% a year ago

 

Celeres estimated Brazil’s ‘13/14 bean crop at 89.9 MMT

 

Safras e Mercado estimated Brazil’s ‘13/14 corn crop at 75.6 MMT vs. 82.1 MMT a year ago

 

Iran bought 50K tons of Brazilian corn for Jan-Feb shipment

 

Israel seeks 90,000 tons of optional origin corn for April – May shipment

 

Surveyor SGS estimated Malaysia’s Jan 1-20th palm oil exports at 743,487 tons down 15.5% from a year ago

 

Intertek said Malaysia’s Jan 1-20th palm oil exports were down 15% from a month ago

 

Concerns about winterkill on Thursday in Missouri and Illinois

 

Russia bought 5,400 tons of intervention grain. Making the total since Oct 15th at 549,480 tons

 

March beans closed well below the 50 day moving average of 1300 and below the 100 day moving average of 1296. March beans settled at 1280 ½

 

Weekly API energy inventory report comes out tomorrow at 330 pm CST

 

Chinese markets will be closed Jan 31st – Feb 3rd for Lunar New Year holiday . Trading resumes Feb 4th

 

Oil World

  • Estimated US Sept – Feb bean exports at 34.8 MMT (record) vs. 31.15 MMT a year ago
  • Estimated US ‘13/14 bean exports at 41.2 MMT
  • Estimated US ’13/14 bean ending stocks at 4.09 MMT
  • Estimated Sept – Dec global bean exports at 35.9 MMT vs. 29.9 MMT a year ago
  • Estimated Russia’s ‘13/14 bean crop at 1.2 MMT up 74% from a year ago
  • Estimated Ukraine’s ‘13/14 bean crop at 2.76 MMT vs. 2.27 MMT a year ago
  • Estimated Ukraine’s ‘13/14 bean area at 1.6 MH up 17% from a year ago
  • Estimated Ukraine’s ‘13/14 sunflower seed area at 6.9 MH down 5% from a year ago
  • Estimated Ukraine’s ‘13/14 rapeseed area at 1.15 MH up 3% from a year ago
  • Estimated Sept – Dec US and 5 South American soybean crush at 73.35 MMT (record high) up 13% from a year ago
  • Estimated July – Nov global rapeseed exports at a record 6.3 MMT vs. 4.9 MMT a year ago
  • Estimated Oct- Nov Russia and Ukraine sunflower oil exports at 1.05 MMT record up 28% from a year ago

 

Chinese industry analysts – weekly Chinese crush breakdown

  • For the week of Jan 11-17 total crush volume at 1,708,200 tons up 8.74% from a week ago
  • For the week Jan 11-17 total crush capacity utilization at 60.16% up 4.62% a week ago
  • Total ‘13/14 crush volume (Oct 1st – Jan 17th ) at 22,271,638 tons up 22.05% from a year ago
  • Total 2014 crush volume (Jan 1-17th) at 3,914,120 tons up 24.06% from a year ago
  • As of Jan 17 total bean import stocks at 4.901 MMT down 136,600 tons from a week ago and down 2.16% from a year ago
  • Estimated Jan bean imports at 5.39 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated Feb bean imports at 4.5 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated March bean imports at 4.9 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated April bean imports at 5.6 MMT  vs. 5.2 MMT previously

 

 

China’s General Administration of Customs – December imports

  • Wheat 388,990 tons up 6937% from a year ago
    • 296,150 tons from the US up 26,910% from a year ago
  • Corn 820,968 tons up 209% from a year ago
  • Barley 196,316 tons up 255% from a year ago
  • Rice 208,070 tons down 3.37% from a year ago
  • Beans 7,402,443 tons up 25.67% from a year ago
    • 5,937,108 tons from the US up 23.9% from a year ago
    • 576,063 tons from Brazil up 368% from a year ago
    • 436,176 tons from Argentina down .3% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed 506,509 tons up 131.77% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed oil 89,410 tons up 4.51% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed meal 6,414 tons up 986% from a year ago
  • Bean oil 89,501 tons down 55.82% from a year ago
  • Meal 1,263 tons up 57.81% from a year ago
  • Palm oil 652,503 tons down 31.58% from a year ago

 

 

China’s General Administration of Customs – January – December 2013 imports

  • Wheat 5,507,051 tons up 49.3% from a year ago
    • 3.82 MMT from the US up 492% from a year ago
  • Corn 3,264,883 tons down 37.3% from a year ago
  • Barley 2,335,276 tons down 7.61% from a year ago
  • Rice 2,244,317 tons down 4.28% from a year ago
  • Beans 63,375,350tons up 8.55% from a year ago
    • 22,234,449 from the US down 14.38% from a year ago
    • 31,808,580 tons from Brazil up 33.14% from a year ago
    • 6,124,476 tons from Argentina up 3.87% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed 3,662,410 tons up 24.99% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed oil 1,526,833 tons, up 29.86% from a year ago
  • Rapeseed meal 125,879 tons down 74.84% from a year ago
  • Bean oil 1,157,586 tons, down 36.61% from a year ago 
  • Meal 16,682 tons down 63.27% from a year ago
  • Palm oil 5,979,071 tons down 5.7% from a year ago

 

Argentina Ag Min weekly Argentina crop report from Friday

  • Bean planting is 92% complete vs. 94% a year ago
  • Estimated bean area at 20.807 MH
  • Estimated corn area at 5.716 MH
  • Corn planting is 88% complete vs. 93% a week ago

 

Open outcry option players

New Edge sold 700 SH 1300/1280 put spreads at 9 ¾ -10

ADM bought 500 SH 1320 calls at 11 ¼ – 11 ½

ADM sold 1,000 CG 420/430 call spreads at 3 5/8 and sold 500 CH at 422 ½

ADM sold 1,000 CH 420 calls at 9 ½

New Edge bought 1,300 CZ 450 calls at 33 ¾ and sold 676 CZ at 445 ½

FI sold 1,000 CZ 450 puts at 37 3/8 and sold 500 CH at 422 ¾

ABN bought 700 WH 580 calls at 7 3/8 -9 3/8

Bunge bought 500 SMH 420 puts at 11

JP Morgan bought 2,000 BOH 40 calls at 19-20

 

 

Estimated fund activity

Wheat sold 1K

Corn bought 2K

Beans sold 10K

Meal sold 4K

Bean oil bought 2K

 

Closing vols and ATM straddles

 

Corn

H vol 16 ½ 425 str 16-17

J vol 16 ¾ 430 str 23-24

K vol 18 ¼ 430 str 31 ½-32 ½

N vol 20 ¾ 440 str 46 ½-47 ½

U vol 23 ½ 440 str 62 ½-63 ½

 

Beans

G vol 18 ¾ 1280 str 19 ½-20

H vol 15 ¾ 1280 str 47 ½-48

K vol 15 ¾ 1260 str 80 ½-82

N vol 16 ½ 1240 str 105-108

X vol 16 1100 str 121-123

 

Wheat

G vol 22 ¾ 560 str 8-12

H vol 21 ¾ 560 str 27-29

K vol 21 ¾ 570 str 50-53

N vol 23 ¾ 580 str 70-73

Z vol 23 600 str 95-101

 

 

KC wheat

G vol 17 ½ 620 str 9-10

H vol 19 620 str 26-29

K vol 19 ½ 620 str 48-51

N vol 21 3/8 610 str 66-69

Z vol 21 640 str 95-99

 

Minneapolis wheat

G vol 16 620 str 8-14

H vol 17 620 str 22-29

K vol 18 620 str 42-49

N vol 18 ½ 630 str 57-63

U vol 19 630 str 68-76

Z vol 19 ¼ 650 str 83-93

 

Meal

G vol 30 420 str 8-12

H vol 21 420 str 20-21.5

K vol 19.25 410 str 31-32.5

N vol 18.75 400 str 36.5-38.5

Q vol 17.75 390 str 39-41

Z vol 17 340 str 41-44

 

Bean oil

G vol 16.25 38 str 40-55

H vol 15.25 38 str 125-140

K vol 15.25 38.5 str 225-240

N vol 15.75 39 str 290-310

Q vol 16.25 39 str 340-370

Z vol 16.25 39 str 430-465

 

Crush quotes

Open                     Close

March   54-54.5                 54.5-55.5

May       46.0-46.5              46.5-47.5

Jly           47.75-48.25         47.25-48.75

Aug        58.5-60                 59.25-60.0

Sep        86.5-88                  87.75-88

Oct         79.5-80                 80-82

Dec        74.75-75               74.75-75.5

Jan         69-71                     69.5-70.0

 

 

Crush players

Tenco sold 300 March at 55

RJO sold 100 Dec at 75