News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

Everybody is a genius. But if you judge a fish by its ability to climb a tree, it will live its whole life believing that it is stupid.

– Albert Einstein

 

USDA announced 106,000 tons of US beans sold to China for ‘14/15 shipment

 

NOPA December crush report comes out today at 11 am CST. Expecting

  • Crush average estimate 163.9 MB , range of estimates are 160.0-166.5 MB. November crush was 160.145 MB and Dec 2012 crush was 159.899 MB
  • Bean oil stocks average estimate 1.555 billion lbs. , range of estimates are 1.418-1.648 billion lbs. November bean oil stocks were 1.486 B and Dec 2012 bean oil stocks were 2.600 B
  • Meal exports – no estimates are given. November meal exports were 813,323 tons and Dec 2012 exports were 801,245 tons

 

Overnight closes

  • SH down a ¼ at 1306 ¾
  • CH down 2 ½ at 429
  • WH down 2 ¼ at 577
  • KC WH up a ½ at 632 ½
  • MWH down 1 at 620
  • SMH unchanged at 430.10
  • BOH up 4 at 3780
  • RRH up .50 at 1548.50

 

Overnight volume

  • SH 9,405
  • CH 8,532
  • WH 4,053
  • KC WH 380
  • MWH 191
  • SMH 4,411
  • BOH 9,329
  • RRH 19

 

Opening calls

  • Beans steady mixed
  • Corn 1-3 lower
  • Wheat 1-3 lower
  • KC wheat steady better
  • Minneapolis wheat steady lower
  • Meal steady mixed
  • Bean oil steady – 10 higher
  • Rice steady better

 

Gold and silver lower . Dollar, crude, and stock market higher

 

Nikkei up 2.5%

Hang Seng up .5%

Shanghai Index down .2%

 

Weekly API energy inventory report from yesterday

  • Crude a draw of 4.1 MB expecting a draw of 600,000
  • Gas a build of 5.4 MB expecting a build of 2.5 MB
  • Distillates a draw of 1.7 MB expecting a build of 1.5 MB

 

China grain closings – beans up 33, corn down 4, meal up 38, palm oil down 22, bean oil down 20

 

Palm oil up 32

 

TALK China bought 2 cargoes of US beans for Feb shipment this week

 

TALK China rejected up to 16 US DDGS containers this week due to unapproved GMO being found.

 

Indonesia Palm Oil Association estimated Indonesia 2014 palm oil consumption at 10.0 MMT vs. 8.0 MMT in 2013

 

Indonesia Palm Oil Association estimated Indonesia’s 2014 palm oil output at 27.5-28.0 MMT vs. 26.0 MMT a year ago

 

Malaysia keeps February palm oil export tax unchanged at 5%

 

Intertek estimated Malaysia’s Jan 1-15th palm oil exports at 460,248 tons down 28% from a month ago

 

SGS estimated Malaysia Jan 1-15th palm oil exports at 467,817 tons down 27% from a month ago

 

Some analysts are estimating Argentina’s ‘13/14 corn crop at 18.0 – 25.0 MMT vs. USDA estimate of 25.0 MMT due to 3 week drought in December

 

Japan seeks 180,000 tons of wheat from Canada, US , and Australia .

 

Bangladesh retenders for 50K optional origin wheat

 

India’s Farm Ministry estimated 2014 wheat crop at a record high 100 MMT vs. 92.46 MMT in 2013 and vs. 94.88 MMT in 2014

 

Reports of better than expected bean yields in Mato Grosso Brazil

 

Hot and dry in Argentina through the weekend. Cooler temps and scatter rains in forecast for next week

 

Favorable Brazil weather through the weekend. Hot and dry forecast next week

 

Concerns about extremely hot temperatures in southeast Australia

 

125 wheat receipts canceled yesterday afternoon out of Andersons Maumee OH

 

260 new bean receipts registered yesterday afternoon

  • 207 out of CGB Utica IL
  • 9 out of CIRM Chicago IL
  • 44 out of Cargill Lacon IL

 

Deliveries

  • Meal 1 with the date current
  • Bean oil 147 with the date current
  • Beans 260 with the date at 1/08/14
    • House Term stopped 260
    • Customer JP Morgan issued 44

 

Moving averages

  • SH 50 day 1295 ½ .
  • SH 100 day 1296 ½
  • CH 50 day 430

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • Total corn 1,280,250 open, up 265
  • Total beans 594,668 open, up 978
  • Total meal 274,538 open, up 6,411
  • Total bean oil 363,218 open, up 4,325
  • Total wheat 422,439 open, up 6,185
  • Total KC wheat 157,207 open, up 309

 

Upcoming reports and events

  • Weekly DOE #s come out today at 930 am CST. Expecting
    • Crude a draw of 800,000
    • Gas a build of 2.3 MB
    • Distillates a build of 1.1 MB
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out today at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US jobless claims report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly US export sales report comes out tomorrow at 730 am CST
  • Weekly EIA Nat Gas storage report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Malaysian palm oil markets are closed on Friday for public holiday
  • US markets are closed Monday Jan 20th for Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday
  • China’s Lunar New Year starts Jan 30th

 

Thank you,