News From The Grain Floor

Good morning

 

Remember that happiness is a way of travel – not a destination.

– Roy M. Goodman

 

January futures expire today at noon CST. Open interest in Jan futures as of yesterday’s close is

  • Jan beans 409 open, down 739
  • Jan meal 13 open, down 404
  • Jan bean oil 293 open, down 218

 

Today is the last day of the fund rebalancing.

 

Overnight closes

  • SH up 1 ¼ at 1328 ¼
  • CH down 3 ¼ at 431 ¼
  • WH down 2 at 571 ½
  • KC WH down 2 at 617 ¾
  • MWH down 1 ¾ at 616
  • SMH up 1.30 at 423.20
  • BOH down 4 at 3780
  • RRH down 1.50 at 1562

 

Overnight volume

  • SH 10,744
  • CH 11,001
  • WH 4,464
  • KC WH 797
  • MWH 113
  • SMH 4,043
  • BOH 7,453
  • RRH 26

 

Opening calls

  • Beans 1-2 higher
  • Corn 2-4 lower
  • Wheat 1-3 lower
  • KC wheat 1-3 lower
  • Minneapolis wheat 1-3 lower
  • Meal 1.00-2.00 higher
  • Bean oil steady to 10 lower
  • Rice 1-2 lower

 

Gold and silver lower. Dollar, stock market, and crude oil higher.

 

Nikkei down 3.08%

Hang Seng down .4%

Shanghai Index up .9%

 

Lack of news this morning.

 

Malaysia palm oil markets closed today for public holiday.

 

Chinese grain closes – beans up 6, corn down 4, meal up 31, palm oil up 36, bean oil down 2.

 

TALK China was buying Brazilian beans for May shipment yesterday

 

TALK China rejected more US DDGS containers yesterday

 

Iraq seeks 10,000 tons of sunflower oil any origin except China.

 

Abiove estimated Brazil’s ‘13/14 bean crop at 87.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 86.6 MMT and vs. CONAB estimate of 90.33 MMT

 

Abiove estimated Brazil’s ‘13/14 bean exports at 44.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 44.0 MMT

 

Abiove estimated Brazil’s’13/14 bean ending stocks at 5.79 MMT vs. ‘12/13 ending stocks of 2.54 MMT

 

Agroconsult estimated Brazil ‘13/14 bean crop at 91.6 MMT vs. previous estimate of 90.7 MMT and

 

Agroconsult estimated Brazil’s ‘13/14 corn crop at 76.2 MMT vs. previous estimate of 76.1 MMT

 

Ukraine Ag Min estimated ‘13/14 grain exports at 33.0 MMT vs. previous estimate of 32.0 MMT . Ukraine Ag Min said Ukraine has already exported 20.0 MMT of grain mostly corn in the ‘13/14 season.

 

UkrAgroConsult said 92% of Ukraine’s winter grain crops are in good condition.

 

239 new bean oil receipts were registered yesterday afternoon out of Minnesota Soybean Processors , Brewster MB

 

One soymeal delivery , with the date at 12/18/13

 

293 bean oil deliveries with the date current

 

Favorable Brazilian crop weather

 

Argentina hot and dry through the weekend. Showers and cooler temps in the 6-10 day forecast

 

Chinese industry analysts – Chinese crush breakdown

  • For the week Jan 3-10th total crush volume at 1,570,850 tons up 6.62% from a week ago
  • For the week Jan 3-10th total crush capacity utilization at 55.54% up 1.96% from a week ago
  • Total ‘13/14 crush volume (Oct 1st – Jan 10th) at 20,563,438 tons up 22.24% from a year ago
  • Total 2014 crush volume (Jan 1 – Jan 10th) at 2,205,920 tons up 27.58% from a year ago
  • As of Jan 10th total imported bean stocks at 5.0767 MMT up 22,700 tons from a week ago and down 1.83% from a year ago
  • Estimated Jan bean imports at 5.39 MMT unchanged from previous estimate
  • Estimated Feb bean imports at 4.5 MMT vs. previous estimate of 5.0 MMT
  • Estimated March bean imports at 4.9 MMT vs. previous estimate of 4.7 MMT
  • Estimated April bean imports at 5.2 MMT , first estimate made for April imports

 

 

Beijing’s renewal of expired import certificates of several biotech corn strains last week is an encouraging sign that the United States and China will soon resolve the import dispute over an unapproved corn variety that has caused the rejection of several U.S. corn shipments, U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack said on Monday.  “These were renewals, so it’s not new, but it’s comforting to the companies who had been waiting for quite some time for this,” Vilsack told reporters at the annual American Farm Bureau Federation convention here.  – from Reuters article published yesterday afternoon.

 

Moving averages

  • SH 50 day 1294
  • SH 100 day 1296
  • CH 50 day 430 ¼

 

Open interest as of yesterday’s close

  • CH 645,979 open, down 7,369
  • Total corn 1,280,914 open, down 5,054
  • SH 276,578 open, up 3,420
  • Total beans 595,862 open, up 8,735
  • SMH 146,970 open, up 3,602
  • Total meal 268,306 open, up 6,919
  • BOH 200,059 open, up 7,827
  • Total bean oil 358,752 open, up 10,896
  • WH 249,551 open, down 4,273
  • Total wheat 417,043 open, down 2,139
  • KC WH 87,456 open, down 221
  • Total KC wheat 156,879 open, down 194

 

Upcoming reports and events

  • Weekly API energy inventory report comes out today at 330 pm CST
  • Surveyors SGS and Intertek Agri Services come out tomorrow with their Malaysia Jan 1-15th palm oil export estimates
  • Weekly DOE #s come out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • Weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow at 930 am CST
  • NOPA December crush report comes out tomorrow at 11 am CST . Based on a Reuters survey expecting
    • Crush average estimate 163.9 MB , range of estimates are 160.0-166.5 MB. November crush was 160.145 MB and Dec 2012 crush was 159.899 MB
    • Bean oil stocks average estimate 1.555 billion lbs. , range of estimates are 1.418-1.648 billion lbs. November bean oil stocks were 1.486 B and Dec 2012 bean oil stocks were 2.600 B
    • Meal exports – no estimates are given. November meal exports were 813,323 tons and Dec 2012 exports were 801,245 tons
  • US markets are closed Monday Jan 20th for Martin Luther King Jr. Holiday
  • China’s Lunar New Year starts Jan 30th